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    • Here’s Who Is Winning in the Latest Trump-Harris Presidential Polls?
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    Here’s Who Is Winning in the Latest Trump-Harris Presidential Polls?

    Harry Posted on

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    Vice President Kamala Harris holds a single-digit lead over former President Donald Trump in two new national polls released Sunday, but the third poll is also inconclusive; because polls show the race for the White House is nearly even, with ties in all seven polls oscillation statesmaking the race wildly unpredictable as the election draws closer.

    Basic Information

    Harris leads by two points, 49-47 percent Morning Consult survey On Sunday, most voters will be out of the race with a one-point margin of error; There is a slight narrowing in the race, with Harris leading by three points last week and four points in the previous two Morning Consult polls.

    The vice president has a similar three-point advantage, 49%-46%. ABC/Ipsos survey, compared with a 51%-47% margin. last week and by the beginning of October had a 50%-48% lead.

    Meanwhile, a NBC News poll It shows the two candidates are tied at 49%, with the remaining 2% still undecided.

    Harris increased by 49%-48% recently HarrisX/Forbes poll By Thursday, 10 percent of likely voters and 16 percent of registered voters could change their minds.

    Harris also leads Trump among likely voters by 49-47 percent. Economist/YouGov poll As of Wednesday, 2% were unsure and roughly 3% supported other candidates (margin of error 3.6) — a slight narrowing from Harris’ 49%-46% advantage last week.

    Harris is up 51%-47%, with just 3% still undecided. likely voter survey By the Co-operative Election Study, a survey of nearly 50,000 people between 1-25 October, supported by several universities and conducted by YouGov.

    The Times’ widely followed poll showed that support for Harris had waned since the paper’s previous poll in early October showed her with a 49% to 46% lead over Trump. Even though they lost the White House, they received the popular vote in the last election.

    Trump leads between 48 percent and 46 percent CNBC research The proportion of registered voters reported Thursday (margin of error is 3.1) and he is ahead by a margin of 47 percent to 45 percent. Wall Street Magazine Wednesday’s registered voter poll results (margin of error 2.5) — a shift in Trump’s favor since August. Harris led 47% to 45% in a Journal poll.

    Harris has erased Trump’s lead over Biden since July 21, when she announced her candidacy, but Harris’s advantage has diminished in the last two months, reaching 3.7 points at the end of August, according to FiveThirtyEight. weighted voting average

    Important Reminder: Presidential Polls Are Often Wrong

    And there’s a lot of speculation this year about how wrong they were and who it might benefit. read all about it in this story.

    Who Do Polls Predict to Win the Election: Harris or Trump?

    According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump is favored to win the Electoral College 53 out of 100, while Harris puts the figure at 47. election prediction. Statistician Nate Silver’s model puts Trump in a 51.5% chance of winning.

    Big Number

    1 point. This is Harris’ average lead over Trump on FiveThirtyEight voting average. Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics voting average Shows Trump ahead by 0.2 points, while Nate Silver shows Harris ahead by 0.9 points Silver Bulletin forecast.

    How Is Harris Performing Against Trump in Swing States?

    Harris leads Michigan And Wisconsinand Trump is leading Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona And NevadaBased on Silver Bulletin’s poll averages. This means that if the voting in every swing state is completely accurate, Trump will win the electoral college; but most of the seven swing states, including critical Pennsylvania, have margins of less than one percentage point.

    Surprising Fact

    A survey from: NBC News The report, released Sept. 29, found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, her lead has narrowed. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll, conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters, showed 54 percent backing Harris, 40 percent backing Trump and 6 percent unsure who to vote for. Support for Harris is higher than when Biden ran against Trump, NBC said, but remains significantly lower than past leads held by Democratic candidates, including a 36-point lead in the 2020 poll and a 50-point lead in the 2016 poll. The poll’s margin of error was 3.1 percent.

    How did the debate affect the polls?

    Pre-debate polls find Harris’s polling surge looks steady, including from NPR/PBS/Marist questionnaire The count of registered voters taken Sept. 3-5 showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%; This rate decreased compared to the three point difference in August. Most post-debate polls show a majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but that’s not enough to significantly impact the horse race between the two. New York Times/Siena questionnaire The 67 percent of likely voters released on September 19 found that a majority of voters in every demographic group viewed Harris’s debate performance on September 10 favorably; Overall, 67 percent said Harris did a good job, while 40 percent said the same for Trump. Harris gained 52-46% among likely voters and 51-47% among registered voters. ABC News/Ipsos poll It was taken a few days after the Sept. 11-13 debate, and probably didn’t show much change from his six-point lead with voters. end of august And early august ABC/Ipsos polls—although 63% of Americans He said Harris won argument.

    Key Background

    Biden dropping out of school He called it quits on July 21 after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his reelection bid following his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. HE approved immediately He and Harris announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly rallied around him, and 99% of Democratic delegates voted to officially nominate him in a virtual roll call ahead of the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced he had chosen Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 in Philadelphia. Harris’s rise in the polls has been combined with Democrats’ increasing enthusiasm for the election. almost doubled Since Harris joined the race, 85% has risen from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has held steady at 71%, according to Monmouth University. questionnaire It was released on August 14.

    Further Reading

    New HarrisX/Forbes Poll: Trump Leads Harris by 2 Points – But 12% Still Decide (Forbes)

    2024 Election Swing State Polls: Latest Polls Show Trump Rising in Nevada, Georgia (Update) (Forbes)

    Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Up 1 Point in Latest Poll – While Harris Struggles with Latinos (Forbes)

    Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Leads in Latest Poll – But Undecided Voters May Sway Results (Forbes)

    Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Up 3 Points in Latest Poll (Forbes)

    Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Narrowly Leads in Latest Poll (Forbes)

    Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Critical Swing State in Latest Poll (Forbes)

    Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads by 3 Points in Latest Poll (Forbes)

    North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Leads by 3 Points in Latest Poll (Forbes)

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