In the final stretch of 2024’s most important election, the race could come down to who Americans will trust to improve their lives and livelihoods.

The economy has consistently ranked as the No. 1 issue for registered U.S. voters over the past several years, especially after President Joe Biden signed border restrictions legislation in June to combat migrant crossings and ease concerns about illegal immigration.

A Gallup poll released Oct. 9 shows that 52 percent of voters think the economy is an “extremely important” issue influencing their vote; this is the highest level since the Global Financial Crisis. In the last presidential elections, this figure was between 38 and 44 percent. 38 percent evaluate the economy as “very important”.

But the economic environment is mixed and disorderly, meaning votes will come down to which side presents the more convincing argument. While economic data released last week showed strong growth and declining inflation over the three-month period, new jobs created in October fell to their lowest level since 2020 following two devastating hurricanes and a workers’ strike.

So far, the economy has not been this prominent in the messages of either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump. Both often used emotional issues to rally their bases.

For Trump, this involves stoking and scapegoating grievances about the establishment, as evidenced by incendiary rhetoric at his Madison Square Garden rally.

Ms. Harris’s playbook, meanwhile, focused on abortion rights and protecting democracy. As he delivered his last major speech at the Ellipse near the White House, where Trump incited an angry mob to ransack Congress on Jan. 6, 2021, he wanted to remind voters of his attempt to subvert democracy.

But in this incredibly close election, the strategy of appealing to his confirmed base of supporters may have reached its natural limits. The two campaigns have hit a brick wall, with both tied in seven swing states (North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada) that could swing the race. According to FiveThirtyEight’s Nov. 2 poll, Trump has an advantage in more states, but none has a 2.2 percent advantage.

Is Trump better for the US economy?

With just two days left, the window to personally persuade voters is closing. Finishing strong will also require winning over the undecided, many of whom share the same concern about the economy. Both sides have very different messages on this issue.

Ms. Harris, who announced at a rally in Atlanta, Georgia, on Nov. 2 that her first goal as president would be to lower the cost of living for Americans through tax cuts and expanding Medicare to cover home care, later repeated the same message in Charlotte. , North Carolina.

In this final week, his campaign has released ads that show he understands the challenges faced by steelworkers and small businesses and emphasizes his support for working-class Americans.

Trump, meanwhile, dismissed lackluster employment data as “depression numbers” in a pioneering Nov. 2 study through Gastonia and Greensboro in North Carolina. Economists doubt his election cut promise It is realistic to bring gasoline to $2 per gallon ($0.70 per liter), which has been repeated more than 20 times during the campaign.