Kamala Harris and the Democrats took the lead Donald Trump upon a power Des Moines Register The poll shows her leading by three points in Iowa and 20 points among women.

But the Trump campaign rejects that narrative, saying the “outlier poll” compares unfavorably with the Emerson College poll, which reflected the state of actual Iowa voters and did so with much more transparency in their methodology.

“To their credit, the Emerson College poll has a R+4 party split (below R+10 in 2020 exit polls) and Trump +8 recalled a 2020 vote margin consistent with reported returns. Emerson poll shows Trump ahead of Harris 53-43.”

“They claim that Harris is ahead by 19 points (55-36) with seniors (ages 65+), an outlier in the Des Moines Register poll. In 2020, President Trump led seniors ages 54-45 ahead of Biden, according to CNN’s exit polls. The Emerson College poll released today agrees with CNN’s take on 2020; President Trump leads 54-45 among voters ages 60-69 and 54-44 among voters ages 70+.

Even as Republicans whined, the poll sparked a significant prediction market.

At the time of this writing, PredictIt shows the “Yes” margin showing Harris winning the presidential election at 58 cents. That was down from 50 cents before the poll crashed.

“47. US President Harris is an even stronger favorite with 57 cents. There is an increase of 7 cents compared to before the survey

Polymarket is again better for Trump at the time of this writing. Yes shares are at just over 55 cents, while Harris’ shares are at 44 cents.

We expect volatility to continue as the shock survey reflects on the sharks in the market.

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