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How might U.S. election night unfold hour by hour?
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How might U.S. election night unfold hour by hour?

On November 5/6, the night of the US presidential election, polls will close at different times across the US, usually on the hour.

Once this happens, a state could be “called” by US news networks for Kamala Harris or Donald Trump.

This will only happen when the networks are confident a candidate will win the state.

For states that traditionally vote Republican (like Wyoming and Oklahoma) or Democratic (like California and New York), this will likely happen as soon as the polls close, before a single vote has been officially counted.

But in “swing states” like Arizona, Georgia or Pennsylvania, where the race is expected to be close, networks will want to wait until most votes are actually counted and reported before making a prediction.

So in some states, there might not be a call for Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump for hours or even days.

In 2020, Pennsylvania was the state that gave Joe Biden enough votes to guarantee he would become president, but it wasn’t until the Saturday after the election – a four-day wait – that most US networks called for Mr Biden.

A total of 270 delegate votes are needed to win the US presidential election.

Each state is allocated a fixed number of electoral votes (EVs), roughly based on the size of its population.

Whoever wins the popular vote in a state also wins all EVs in that state (except Maine and Nebraska, described below).

Here’s a guide to how US election night will unfold.

In each case, the time given is when the last polls close in each state, and all times are GMT, according to the AP news agency.

A map showing poll closing times in each US state for the 2024 presidential election
Poll closing times for US presidential election (PA Graphics)

Donald Trump should be off the mark when polls close in three traditional Republican strongholds: Indiana (worth 11 electoral votes), Kentucky (eight) and South Carolina (nine).

Kamala Harris will take the safe Democratic states of Vermont (three EVs) and Virginia (13).

Polls have also ended in Georgia (16 EVs), which was the first of the voting processes.

Joe Biden narrowly won this state in 2020, but the result was only confirmed after several days of counting and recounting.

If the result in Georgia is close again, which is likely, a similar wait may be required for the winner to be determined.

West Virginia, a safe Republican state (four EVs), should be quickly called for Mr. Trump.

Ohio (17 EVs) used to be a swing state — Barack Obama won close races there in 2008 and 2012 — but has moved into safe Republican territory since 2016, and Mr. Trump should reasonably be called out immediately.

In contrast, North Carolina (16 EVs) has become a swing state in this election, with polls showing both candidates have a shot at victory.

Therefore, it may not be possible to determine the winner for a while.

Predictions are likely to increase as polls close in more than a dozen safe states.

Ms. Harris should pick Democratic-leaning Connecticut (seven HOMEs), Delaware (three), Illinois (19), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Hampshire (four), New Jersey (14) and Rhode. Island (four), along with the District of Columbia (three).

Mr. Trump must see Alabama (nine), Florida (30), Mississippi (six), Missouri (10), Oklahoma (seven) and Tennessee (11) added to his tally.

Maine doesn’t have a winner-take-all policy for its four electoral votes; instead, it allocates two votes to the winner in each of the two Congressional districts and two votes to the winner of the statewide at-large popular vote.

In 2020, Joe Biden won two statewide votes and one of the district votes, giving him three out of four votes, while Donald Trump won the other district votes.

Voting is also expected to end in Pennsylvania (19 EVs), another swing state.

The state was solidly Democratic until Mr. Trump narrowly won in 2016 and Mr. Biden took it back in 2020.

With so many mail and early ballots to be sorted and counted, the outcome in Pennsylvania is unlikely to be known for a long time.

Polls are closed in Arkansas (six EVs), another strongly Republican state.

The influx of safe states should provide significant numbers of electoral votes for both candidates.

Kansas (six EVs), Iowa (six), Louisiana (eight), North Dakota (three), South Dakota (three), Texas (40) and Wyoming (three) will likely be called pretty quickly for Mr. Trump.

Ms. Harris needs to pick up Colorado (10 HOMEs), Minnesota (10), New Mexico (five) and New York (28).

Nebraska, like Maine, does not have a winner-take-all policy and instead splits the electoral votes; in this case, three votes are allocated to the winner in each of the three Congressional districts and two votes are allocated to the winner in the statewide general election. popular vote.

In 2020, Joe Biden won one of three precinct votes, while Donald Trump won the other two and two statewide votes, giving him four out of five votes.

Polls close in all three swing states: Arizona (11 EVs), Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10). If the outcome is close, it could take days to make a decision.

Mr. Biden won all three of those states in 2020, while Mr. Trump won all three in 2016.

A map showing the trend in this year's US presidential election
Swing states in this year’s US presidential election (PA Graphics)

Mr. Trump will add two more states to his tally when polls close in the safe Republican states of Montana (four EVs) and Utah (six).

Polls have also ended in Nevada, the last of the swing states where six electric vehicles are offered for sale; But like other battlefields, it can take hours, if not days, to determine a winner.

Nevada has been won repeatedly by Democrats in recent years, but polls show this year’s outcome is on a knife edge.

Ms. Harris’s numbers will rise as polls close in three highly safe Democratic states: California (54 EVs), Oregon (eight) and Washington (12).

For Mr. Trump, Idaho (four EVs) should be called.

Polls are closed in Hawaii (four EVs), another safe Democratic state.

Alaska is the last state to complete voting, and its three delegate votes should be called for Mr. Trump.

But given the time it will take to count all ballots in all swing states, there’s a good chance the overall winner of the election is still unknown.

If it was a landslide for Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump, then some news networks might want to name a winner by now.

If it’s going to be a cutthroat competition, be prepared to wait days, if not weeks, for the identity of the next president to be confirmed.