Amid above-average fall temperatures, snowpack levels in Colorado remain above normal.

Snowpack, also called snow-water equivalent, is a measurement of how much liquid water is retained in the state’s snowfields; It is an important indicator of drought conditions and seasonal runoff.

As of Friday, Nov. 1, statewide snowpack reached 143% of the 30-year average. This rate is considered historical normal. Data from Natural Resources Conservation Service.

Still, Colorado has a long way to go before experts know how this season’s snowpack will perform compared to previous years. Snow cover usually begins to form in mid-October and reaches its peak in early April.

“We’re in the first quarter, like in football. … We’ve got a long season ahead of us,” said Matthew Aleksa, a forecaster for the National Weather Service in Grand Junction. “But we’re off to a good start.”

Aleksa said recent storms brought cooler weather to the mountains and Western Slope regions, with some places seeing temperatures about 15 degrees above normal in the first half of October. Most of the snowfall was concentrated in the San Juans region. Netted between 1 and 2 feet. Fresh gunpowder during the two most recent storms in late October.

Snow cover levels in river basins in this region are well above 200% of normal, helping to increase the state’s total. However, ongoing dry weather in the eastern part of the state prevented snowdrifts from forming.

Snowpack in the South Platte River Basin along the Front Range from Fort Collins to Castle Rock remained at 43% of normal as of Friday. In the Arkansas River Basin, which covers the south-central part of the state, levels were at 84%.

Still, looking at statewide data, Aleksa said, “We’re pretty close to, maybe a little above, where we normally would be this time of year.”

However, depending on the storm pattern, this can change quickly and even short periods of dry weather can cause snowpack levels to drop rapidly.

“The benefit of the recent (storm) systems is that it helps bring our temperatures down from well above normal to near or even slightly below normal,” Aleksa said. “Needless to say, it looks like we’ll see more snow and cooler conditions in the mountains later this weekend and into next week… (and) these systems coming in are helping to amplify the cold air and keep those temperatures lower.”

OpenSnow.com’s forecasts indicate a very active start to November, with the next storm arriving on Sunday afternoon. Snowfall of around 8 inches could be possible near and east of the Continental Divide, but similar numbers could be seen in western areas such as Berthoud Pass.

Friday blog postJoel Gratz, OpenSnow’s founding meteorologist, wrote: “The long-term outlook is all good news. Some early seasons are warm, keeping us waiting for winter to arrive, but it looks like we’ll be on the storm train with a few storms a week for the first half of November.”

Climate Prediction Center’s monthly outlook for November indicates equal chance Colorado will experience above or below normal temperatures and precipitation. The three-month forecast for November, December and January shows a low chance of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation in Colorado’s mountain regions.

Aleksa said patterns may shift toward the central and northern mountains, with recent storms favoring the southwestern corner of the state. La Nina conditions continue to improve.

an atmospheric pattern Caused by temperature changes in the Pacific Ocean at the equator, La Nina is generally characterized by steeper, cooler air in the north and drier, warmer air in the south. In the 2023-24 winter season, there was an opposite pattern, El Nino, that could have the opposite effect.

Neither model has a historically strong impact on Colorado’s snow season, but some impacts are possible later in the winter.

“The southern mountains seem to be seeing more snow right now,” Aleksa said. “But this may transition with more sightings of the northern mountains early in the new year.”