close
close

Semainede4jours

Real-time news, timeless knowledge

    • Who will win the 2024 election? Allan Lichtman’s next presidential prediction
    bigrus

    Who will win the 2024 election? Allan Lichtman’s next presidential prediction

    Harry Posted on

    play

    Historian Allan Lichtmanwho correctly predicted nine of the last 10 presidential elections said he was still thinking Kamala Harris will eat Donald Trump But he said he felt especially nervous this year.

    “I’ve been doing this for 42 years, and every four years I get butterflies in my stomach,” he said. “I think I have a flock of crows in my stomach this year.”

    Lichtman said: Head-to-head voting of candidates Being in key swing situations doesn’t make him nervous. he trusts himself “13 Keys to the White House” system and still believes Harris will be the country’s next president. But somehow live video interview The presidential forecaster took to his YouTube channel with his son Sam to explain that he is concerned about the fragility of democracy, noting that the political system hasn’t actually been around that long.

    “For a large part of human history, there was virtually no democracy. People were governed by the divine right of kings, by birthright, or by sword and blood,” he said. “Democracy is a very recent development.”

    ➤ Allan Lichtman: The historian who correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 presidential elections is making the 2024 election

    Both presidential campaigns portrayed their opponents as “threats to democracy” in the 2024 cycle. Trump called Harris a “communist” and Harris called Trump a “fascist”. A. Washington Post poll released in June It showed that more than 70% of Democratic and Republican voters view threats to democracy in the United States as “extremely important.”

    Who is Allan Lichtman?

    Lichtman, 77, earned his doctorate before becoming a “Distinguished Professor” from American University in Washington, DC. At Harvard, he specialized in modern American history and quantitative methods.

    He is best known for helping to establish the presidential prediction system, which used thirteen true or false statements. If five or fewer are incorrect, the incumbent party candidate is expected to win. When six or more are incorrect, the challenging side is expected to win.

    Lichtman said this year: at least eight of the keys Go for Harris.

    Using this system, it has accurately predicted the outcome of every election since 1984, except for the famously close race in 2000 when Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.

    What are 13 keys?

    keys and Lichtman’s assessment of each add:

    After the midterm elections, the incumbent party had more seats in the US House of Representatives than in the previous midterm elections. (WRONG)

    There is no serious competition for the incumbent party’s nomination. (TRUE)

    The incumbent party’s candidate is the incumbent president. (WRONG)

    No significant third-party competitors. (TRUE)

    Short-term economy is strong. (TRUE)

    Long-term economic growth is quite good compared to the last two periods. (TRUE)

    The White House party made major changes in national policy. (TRUE)

    There was no continuous social unrest during the period. (TRUE)

    The White House administration and party are not tainted by scandals (True)

    The incumbent administration does not face major failures in foreign and military relations. (Bends Wrong)

    The incumbent administration is achieving great success in foreign or military matters. (Lean Correctly)

    The candidate of the ruling party is charismatic or a national hero. (WRONG)

    The challenger party’s candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (TRUE)

    Reach Rachel Barber at [email protected] and follow her on X @rachelbarber_

    Harry
    View all posts

    You Might Also Like