Putin’s Russia, Ukraine Will Continue to Be a Post-War Threat If We Let It: It is a fact that all wars must endRussia’s campaign against Ukraine is no exception. Under a personal regime Russia, ruled by Vladimir Putin for almost a quarter of a century, is particularly difficult to assess or predict; Because Russia is not an ordinary state, and certainly not in a positive sense.

Putin, who is now a physically small man, has a huge international footprint. Similarly, Russia is the remnant of a failed superpower with a one-dimensional structure. energy based economy Although nominally only the size of Italy, it has enormous international influence.

Predictions about the aftermath of the conflict, whether Russia will decline or pose an unforeseen threat to NATO, leave much to be hypothesized in the field of domestic drivers and policies. Predictions about the aftermath of the conflict, whether Russia will decline or pose some unforeseen threat to NATO, are not only inherently uncertain but also remarkably dependent on the current situation, the drivers of Russia’s domestic politics, and how Russia It also depends on how you move. The end of the conflict and how this end will be perceived.

In Putin’s Russia, domestic factors are exceptionally intertwined with foreign policy decisions. This overwhelming domestic influence and extreme external threat posed by Moscow defies normal measurements of power. This should not mean that we ignore the fact that even if we use purchasing power parity (PPP) for GDP, the Russian economy is still at a level. small fraction It is smaller than that of the US or China and much smaller than that of India.

However, Russia, which cannot be described as a great power, continues to exist. project strength and threatens its neighbors well above its punching weight.

What are the Reasons for Putin’s Destructive Power?

The answer includes: largest nuclear arsenal In the world; Moscow repeated nuclear threats and the Kremlin’s cruelty desire to project powerespecially in the former Soviet zone. This reinforces a neglected geopolitical rule: the ability to project power and threaten neighbors and international stability does not strictly correlate with economic weight or trade competitiveness.

Putin’s general ambitions for unlimited power; no significant internal constraints on its authority, West’s incompetenceWishful thinking about responding to Russian aggression and Ukraine fatigue among Western states all contribute to perpetuating threats. Moreover, Russia’s “disruptive assets” may foreshadow Russia’s potential future threats to NATO following the possibly irresponsible resolution of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Still, fundamental shortcomings will eventually have an impact, especially if competitors react intelligently. Unable or unwilling to solve the fundamental economic and political problems in Russia, Putin saw international adventures as a means of distraction and turning foreign “successes” into domestic popularity and political legitimacy.

Ironically, he found himself trapped.

Looking at what I call the “30-year rule” in 1975, during which the defeated and devastated fascist Italy, Nazi Germany (Federal Republic), and militarist Japan evolved into thriving democracies, successful economies, and highly competitive international traders, Russia has unique natural resources and good The largest regional state in the world with an educated population is actually a shameful underdevelopment. This is just an example of the failure of the Russian Federation under the Putin regime.

Under Putin, Russia squandered historical opportunities to transform itself into a modern and successful state, the state made sacrifices lives and treasures In a disastrous war in Ukraine and We are becoming increasingly dependent on China and rogue states Iran and North KoreaIt risks becoming Beijing’s vassal in the future.

Also threats from the Kremlin He revived NATO and two important neutral states, Sweden and Finland. become a member of the Alliance. Russia under Putin is truly a failed state that has mortgaged its country’s future in order to maintain its own power.

But the fundamental weakness of a nuclear state with a large army is paradoxically provocative. Putin’s massive failures at home make Russia a constant threat, whether it is a great power or not. External guidance is critical for him to remain in power.

Any agreement in Ukraine that would allow Putin to keep his illegally conquered territory, especially when combined with a ban on Ukrainian participation, would embolden NATO and legitimize his warmongering as a successful policy.

This fact cannot be emphasized enough.

In order for Russia to cease being a threat to NATO in the future, the ideal would be to implement a war termination strategy. summarized Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said, “Russia must eventually fail and be seen to fail.”

Realistically, this lofty goal may be unattainable right now. NATO and Ukraine are not helpless.

Despite very difficult conditions, Ukraine prevented significant soil loss Captured some regions last year Kursk oblast of Russia. President Zelensky claims to have victory planbut the truth is Kyiv forces remain under pressure.

Although the United States and NATO are generally generous and have a force capacity that far exceeds Russia’s, they often very timid and very slow In providing significant assistance to Ukraine. The West can do more, our nuclear deterrent is still credible, and the Putin regime is containable and ultimately defenseless. Personalist regimes, which in Putin’s case are more like the mafia than Machiavelli, are temporary.

Putinism is unlikely to survive his departure.

Ukraine and the West may still need to agree on some territorial concessions for the sake of peace, but for NATO to manage a future Russian threat it must ensure that Russia is generally perceived as having lost in its aggression against Ukraine.

But how?

A peace agreement that makes Ukraine’s territorial concessions contingent on NATO membership would guarantee the sovereignty and security of more than eighty percent of Ukraine, drawing a bright red line that would contain Russia and position the Alliance to await its eventual collapse under the poisonous weight of Putinism .

The article was reprinted in The National Interst with the permission of the author. You can find the original Here.