Big Ten football gets a makeover this weekend as the conference’s new contender, No. 1 Oregon, hits the road against Michigan at the Big House on Saturday in college football’s Week 10 matchup. Here’s what you need to pay attention to in the game with our updated prediction.

Michigan improved to 3-2 in Big Ten play after beating Michigan State, but they still play some of the nation’s weakest offenses and their playoff chances are slim.

Oregon, on the other hand, defeated Ohio State with a 1-point win to move up to No. 1 in the national rankings and is still one of college football’s eight remaining undefeated teams.

What can we expect as the Ducks and Wolverines face off in this new-look Big Ten matchup?

Here’s what you need to pay attention to as Oregon and Michigan face off in this Week 10 college football game, along with our updated matchup predictions.

1. Ventilate. Michigan can’t do this; Ranking 129th out of 134 FBS teams in passing efficiency and 109th in scoring, it’s up to Davis Warren to find some holes in Oregon’s pass defense, which is among the best and allows under 57% completions (just 5.9). . yards per attempt and only 4 touchdowns through the air all season. These tacklers are fast, hit hard, and can close down your shooting lanes before you even know they’re open.

2. On the ground. Amidst the Ducks’ other offensive success, running the ball is still something of a question mark as they rank just 61st nationally with 167 yards per game, and that will be key to determining the run against a Michigan defense that ranks 15th against the offense. He plays a physical brand of football on the interior that can challenge Oregon’s interior guard.

3. Test Michigan in depth. Oregon ranks 12th in the FBS in passing efficiency and is completing 76% of its passes for over 9 yards per play thanks to Dillon Gabriel’s partnership with some undercover receivers, and they could find some ground against the Wolverines’ pass defense.

Michigan’s secondary varied its strategy from week to week, sometimes shutting down deep lanes in zone coverage, which resulted in other teams making modest passing gains. Other times it causes more pressure near the line, causing them to be hammered deeper.

Oregon has the variety and speed to take advantage of both approaches: they can slice you with a series of intermediate shots, and they have the jet to run over those tacklers on long shots.

Michigan is the only team in college football with this feature. Average scoring margin of 0.0 points this season.

Oregon performed better, average 20.7 points better More than its rivals in 2024.

In the last three games, these averages differed due to the matches Oregon played. 21.7 points better Michigan was better than its rivals at the time. 5.7 points worse.

And when it comes to venues, these numbers diverge again: Michigan 4 points better Oregon is better than its home opponent. 30.3 points better while playing on the road.

Michigan averages 21.5 points per match This season, Oregon’s defense ranks 97th nationally. 15.9 points per matchGood for 9th in the FBS.

And the Wolverines come in only 120th 303.1 total yards per game In offensive output, the Ducks rank 14th in total defense and 308.7 yards per game On average.

Michigan ranked 81st in FBS 0.348 points per game On average this season, Oregon ranks No. 8 in surrender rankings. 0.245 points per game In 2024.

Michigan also ranks only 101st in the country. 4.9 yards per play on average compared to the Ducks defense that allowed 4.8 yards per playIt ranks 19th.

While playing on third down, the Wolverines converted 42 out of 103 possibilities Success rate this season 40.78 percent.

Oregon just allowed 34 out of 103 third chances of losing will be transformed by competitors, 33.01 percent success rate.

Michigan is effective in the red zone, converting 14 out of 17 opportunities Divide into points for 82.35 percent success ratebut those 17 chances are the third-fewest chances nationwide.

Oregon surrenders 18 of 22 red zone chances will be converted into points (81.82%).

Oregon is averaging 16th in the FBS this season 36.6 points per game Michigan’s defense ranks 34th nationally. 21.5 points per match.

And the Ducks rank 9th in average this season 464.4 total yards per game Compared to the Wolverines defense, which ranked 25th in surrenders. 329.5 yards per game On average.

Oregon averages 0.553 points per game Good thing for 12th in the FBS this season, Michigan allows it 0.316 points per game It ranks 33rd on average.

On a per-game basis, the Ducks enter this weekend ranked No. 6 in the nation. Averaged 7 yards per play While the wolverines let 4.8 yards per play It ranks 25th among competitors.

Oregon ranks 8th out of 134 FBS teams in offensive thirds. We convert 47 out of 94 chances for a 50 percent success rate Michigan ranks 91st in defense on third down and 48 out of 117 chances (41.03%).

Returned to Oregon while working from the counter position 29 of 34 red zone chances Divide into points for 85.29 percent success rate.

24 of these scores were converted into touchdowns (70.59%).

Michigan allowed 24 of 31 red zone chances He will turn into points defensively this season, giving up points on 77.42 percent of his opportunities.

And 17 of those scores were touchdowns (54.84%).

Most analytical models also suggest the Ducks will earn a comfortable road victory.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer forecasting model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Oregon is mostly expected to win the game 77.8 percent One of the computer’s latest matchmaking simulations.

That leaves Michigan as the likely winner in the remaining race 22.2 percent from the sims.

oregon one 14.5 point favorite against Michigan, according to update lines posted on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel determined the total as follows: 45.5 points for the game (Over -108, Under -112).

And Oregon’s deposit rates are listed at: -720 and for michigan +490 To win for sure.

The absence of Michigan’s vertical play will give the Ducks more opportunities to fill out the offensive line with a rotation of talented tacklers who can limit gains down the field and prevent breakaway runs from behind the Wolverines.

While Michigan has the personnel to do the same to Oregon and apply credible pressure from the front seven, the Ducks’ offensive line has recovered sufficiently after some early-season struggles and Gabriel needs to stay clean in the pocket to find his outlet.

College Football HQ selections…

More… Oregon vs Michigan score prediction by expert model

When: Saturday, November 2
Time: 15:30 ET | 12:30 PT
TV: CBS network

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Match odds are updated periodically and may change.

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