Kamala Harris We are entering the last weekend of the presidential race with a narrow margin. Donald Trump than their Democratic predecessors Joe Biden And Hillary ClintonHe was at similar points in the 2020 and 2016 races.

Poll analysis reveals that Harris’ advantage in both national and other state polls is significantly weaker than Biden and Clinton’s polls, suggesting a very tight election on Tuesday.

A deep sense of uncertainty about the presidential race prevails in the final week of the race. With four days until Election Day, both Harris and Trump are not slowing down, running furious campaigns in battleground states.

Gap Narrower for Harris

As early voting continues in many states, Harris holds a modest advantage over Trump in national polling averages. According to poll analysis site FiveThirtyEight, Trump is ahead by 1.2 points; 48 percent of voters supported him, compared to 46.8 percent for Trump.

But RealClearPolitics shows Trump with a slight lead at 48.4 percent compared to Harris’ 48.1, giving him a 0.3 advantage. Nate SilverThe Silver Bulletin puts Harris in first place with 48.5 percent, ahead of Trump by 1.1 at 47.4 percent. New York Times It shows a similar result; Harris has 49 percent to Trump’s 48, a single point in her favor.

This is in sharp contrast to the lead Biden and Clinton had in their respective election years. According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden led Trump by 8.4 points in 2020 and has consistently maintained a lead over other poll aggregators like RealClearPolitics and 270toWin.

This trend was similar in 2016, when Clinton had a 6.2-point lead over Trump at the same point in FiveThirtyEight’s model, and was echoed by other poll aggregators such as RealClearPolitics and 270toWin. But although Clinton won the popular vote, she lost in the Electoral College.

As Election Day approaches, Harris may be ahead in national polls, but her path to getting the required 270 votes in the Electoral College has narrowed. Like Clinton in 2016, Harris may win the popular vote, but the electoral map presents challenges.

Trump, on the other hand, has recently gained ground in key battleground states. As of Friday, FiveThirtyEight’s predictions give the following information: Republican candidate’s chance of winning is 52 percent to Harris’s 48 percent. The updated model reflected several strong poll numbers favoring Trump in key swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Pollster Nate Silver’s forecast similarly favors Trump, showing him with 53.8 percent of the vote to Harris’ 48.8 percent. Both estimates take into account simulations that analyze voter behavior and state-by-state trends.