• With the increase in early voting, Kamala Harris’s election chances have increased in the betting markets this week.
• Data shows women outpace men in early voting; This is a potential warning sign for Trump.
• The increase in Harris betting odds has influenced a number of popular “Trump trades” this week.

Trump trade Kamala Harris’ betting odds have swung this week as the Democratic nominee rose due to some promising signals from early voting data.

Kalshi, a betting market open to US citizens, showed on Tuesday that Harris’ odds of winning the election had risen from a low of 35% to 44%, while Trump’s odds of winning the election had fallen to 56% from a peak of around 65%. %.

Meanwhile, Harris’ odds of winning the popular vote rose by nearly 10 percentage points this week, from about 61% on Tuesday to 71% on Friday morning, according to Kalshi data.

What’s likely driving the change in odds for each candidate could be promising clues for Harris’ campaign in early voting data nationally and in key states.

“The situation in Pennsylvania, where women outperformed men by 13 points in early voting, has sent the (Trump) campaign into a deadlock over the last two days.” Puck reported. on Thursday.

Puck noted that the Trump campaign is also worried about losing Michigan, which has a surge in young student voters, so winning Pennsylvania is crucial for the campaign.

So far, nearly 65 million people have voted early, either through in-person voting or mail-in voting. The gender breakdown of early voting is 54% for women and 44% for men, and polls show Harris winning by a large margin.

Some popular Trump trades have weakened this week as betting odds changed.

Perhaps Trump’s most prominent trade in the market is in shares of Truth Social’s parent company. Trump Media and Technology Group. Shares of Trump Media have fallen as much as 40% since Trump’s election chances peaked on Tuesday.

Bitcoin— which one rose Trump’s election odds have fallen since peaking this week, fueled by rising odds in betting markets on hopes that Trump will pursue a much more pro-crypto agenda.

The cryptocurrency fell as much as 7 percent, but was up nearly 3 percent on Friday morning after recovering.

Other Trump transactions did not fall significantly but did see their recent rises stalled. like the US dollar, That figure seems likely to rise significantly under Trump’s presidency due to the potential for broad tariffs and higher interest rates.

The US dollar index has risen 4 percent since the beginning of October as Trump’s election odds increased, but has fallen slightly since peaking on Tuesday.

While Trump still has a clear lead over Harris in the betting markets, the polls are much tighter even after this week’s shift. Latest Vote average out of 538 Harris is ahead by 48%, while Trump is ahead by 46.8%.