There is a fierce race for control of the House of Representatives. Classic political bravado. It is difficult to predict which way the House will lean.

Republicans are heavily favored to win Senate. But nearly every competitive Senate contest is razor-thin. Pennsylvania. Ohio. Michigan. Wisconsin Texas suddenly comes into play. Some observers never rule out Florida. Montana appears to be moving away from Democrats. Democrats appear to be doing well in Arizona. So what happens if former President Trump wins Arizona? Republicans could capture the Senate majority with a strong 53 or 54 seats; even if all of those races are decided by margins of just one or two points.

However, we may be talking about a very different scenario regarding control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. President Biden He did not withdraw his re-election bid in mid-July.

Reporter’s Notebook: The Hard Things Are Yet to Come

On July 21, the President said he would withdraw “because it is in the interest of my party and my country.”

House and Senate Democrats breathed a collective sigh of relief.

Read on the Fox News App

Although many people do not openly admit it even now, they feared that Mr. Biden had lost more than a step. He looked tired. He is completely incoherent at times during a late June debate with former President Trump. Few people were excited. They worried that another Biden candidacy would drain Democrats of all their enthusiasm. Former President Trump He would bludgeon Mr. Biden in the race for the White House. But what really horrified them was the impact President Biden running for re-election would have on down-ballot races.

Competitive Senate seats in pennsylvania and in Ohio? It probably fell into the sewer.

Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., predicted the GOP would pick up a few dozen seats in 2022. McCarthy may have taken a two-year break. Having Mr. Biden at the top of the ticket would likely trigger bloodshed in the House contests.

Now Home is everyone’s playground.

On a hot morning in mid-July, Biden campaign officials met with House Democrats at the Democratic National Committee. Some top House Democrats, such as Rep. Jim Clyburn (D.C.), declared he was “going with Biden” heading into the forum. But the ground was already shifting.

Who’s in Charge: The Muddy History of the 50-50 Senate

The president remained doggedly in the race. But old Speaker of the House Nancy PelosiD-Calif., is always aware of the caucus he leads. Pelosi was aware of the political disaster likely awaiting Democrats if the President did not step aside. The San Francisco Democrat could not publicly call on Mr. Biden to leave. Pelosi would be more artistic than that. He would urge worried Democrats to speak out quietly. Without saying anything directly, Democrats in Congress began demanding the President’s resignation.

A group of Biden advisers met with moribund Senate Democrats at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) on a sweltering hot afternoon in mid-July. Nearly every Senate Democrat in attendance tried to avoid the press. In fact, many of them took drivers a few hundred yards from the Senate wing of the Capitol to the DSCC across the street. All to evade members of the press. Their silence spoke volumes about President Biden remaining in the race.

In fact, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (DY) visited President Biden in Delaware just hours before former President Trump’s assassination attempt in Pennsylvania. The news that Schumer was tapped with the president was lost in the news about the disaster at Butler, Penn. But Schumer feared Republicans would implode if Mr. Biden stuck around.

The former Speaker’s masterful touch was classic Pelosi. Climate reading. No fingerprints. A wink and a nod. A green light for others to do something. Someone close to Pelosi once described to me the former Speaker’s tact: “You’ll be bleeding and you won’t even know you’re cut.”

When Pelosi served as Speaker of the House, allies and foes alike always wondered with amazement how she got the votes. Helping organize President Biden’s exit from the presidential sweepstakes was no different. Just turn the unlikely into the inevitable.

A longtime Pelosi confidant told me years ago that Pelosi knew how to cleverly encourage House Democrats to flip voters in their districts. Voters would then support the issue in question and provide protections for Members to vote yes and avoid backlash. Now the grassroots supports the issue. But not without Pelosi’s shrewd engineering.

Afghan Accused of Election Day Terrorism Plot Raises Questions and Fears MPs: ‘This Is the Truth’

This cunning tactic was also effective in persuading Mr Biden to withdraw. After several weeks of trying to make this point behind the scenes, the President realized he had no choice but to resign. Otherwise he will probably lose. Congressional Democrats would accept their fate.

Vice President Harris could win. But Democrats have never had a primary election season to choose their nominee. Certainly. Harris would likely have been initially favored in a traditional primary process. This is because he previously ran for president and served as Vice President for nearly four years. But a quick turn to Harris was in the interest of efficiency. With President Biden stepping aside, Democrats automatically had a candidate who was credible, qualified, and whose resume resonated with the party. So switching to Harris mid-stream was as seamless a transition as possible.

But just as importantly, handing the keys to Harris immediately injected much-needed energy into congressional Democrats and the base. The change has energized Democrats in ways that were impossible under President Biden. Suddenly, Congressional Democrats were back in the game.

Republicans have a good chance of winning the Senate on Tuesday night. But if Mr. Biden had remained at the top of the ticket, Democrats would have faced a tidal wave. Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., appears to be on the ropes. There are tight races involving Sens. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wisc., Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, and Bob Casey, D-Penn. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., for the seat of retired Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., in Michigan for the seat of former Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich. In a dogfight with. Even Rep. Colin Allred, D-Tex., has a chance to take a jab at Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Tex., in the Senate race. It’s possible that Democrats would have lost most or all of these races if President Biden had remained on the ballot. But because of the president’s decision, Democrats are now competitive in all of them and could win several even if they lose control of the Senate.

The same situation is valid in the Palace. This is nip and tuck. Yes. Republicans could remain in their narrow majority and, in the best-case scenario, even gain seats. But Democrats are well positioned in every battleground district to potentially gain ground. This wouldn’t be the case if the president had stuck around.

That’s the key lesson of President Biden’s shocking decision to resign in July: It may have improved Democrats’ chances of keeping the White House. But the real payoff of the president’s decision may come on Capitol Hill. Not by holding the Senate and winning the House of Representatives. But avoiding an ugly explosion.

Original article source: ‘A very different scenario’ for the 2024 House of Representatives elections