The Maine Climate Council concluded that green hydrogen is unlikely to be a commercially viable market by 2030; So getting an additional 15,000 Mainers into electric vehicles by the end of the decade, for a total of 150,000, is the state’s best hope of meeting emissions reduction goals. .

The change came Thursday as the council put the finishing touches on Maine Won’t Wait 2.0, the state’s second climate action plan that will be presented to Gov. Janet Mills on Nov. 21. The plan outlines ways Maine can prevent climate change. Reduce emissions and adapt to a changing climate.

State law requires Maine to reduce heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels by 45% by 2030, from 31.4 million metric tons to 17.3 million metric tons. Latest data available as of 2021, Maine had a 30% reduction.

There was a council advisor It was initially estimated that Maine could meet its 2030 goal A mix of 135,000 electric passenger vehicles and hydrogen-derived fuel, as well as tried-and-true heat pumps, building air conditioning, and reduced vehicle mileage, to meet 1.3% of Maine’s energy demand.

But the adviser was forced to rebalance the emissions formula after the council balked last week at the prospect of pinning even 1% of its hopes of meeting the 2030 emissions target on an emerging hydrogen energy market alien to some members.

“Modeling should not be aspirational,” said council co-chair Hannah Pingree. “It needs to be realistic.”

Green hydrogen is a clean-burning fuel produced by splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen using renewable electricity; When combined with oxygen in the fuel cell, it can produce heat and electricity and emit only water vapor. In April, Maine lawmakers approved a 20-megawatt clean hydrogen pilot plant.

On Wednesday, consultant Jeremy Hargreaves of Evolved Energy Research is back with a new formula: Maine will need 150,000 electric passenger vehicles by 2030 to make up for the emissions savings lost by cutting Maine’s hydrogen power. decade-long energy mix.

An extra 15,000 EVs might not seem like much, but the council has already had to scale back its EV targets once. In 2020, Maine’s first climate action plan predicted 219,000 electric vehicles would be on the road by 2030. It’s clear that’s not happening: Maine currently has only 12,000 passenger electric vehicles.

“When we set the 2020 target, we saw an uptick in electric vehicles,” Pingree said. “We thought the market would move faster. The pandemic slowed this down. “The situation is not where it needs to be to achieve the goal we set in 2020.”

Council members hope the adoption rate will accelerate as Maine expands its high-speed charging infrastructure and pandemic-related supply chain disruptions lessen. To encourage the adoption of electric vehicles, the council wants 50% of EV rebates to go to low- and moderate-income Mainers.

“This is still a big transition for the people of Maine,” said Pingree, director of the Governor’s Office of Policy, Innovation and the Future. “The plan (calls) for many more electric vehicles to be on the road in the next five to six years than we have now. “I think all the strategies we put into the plan will help us achieve this.”

Some council members were concerned Wednesday that the 150,000 light-duty EV target wasn’t ambitious enough. Kate Dempsey, state director of the Nature Conservancy in Maine, noted how far the 2030 goal is from the 2020 goal. “This is a place to aspire a little higher,” Dempsey said.

But Pingree said the revised target puts Maine ahead of the federal government’s EV adoption program.

“It takes about 10 to 15 years to turn over a light-duty fleet,” Pingree said. “When you look at the 2050 numbers (100% EV adoption) and think about fleet turnover, I would say this is going to be a really significant change in our fleet over the next few decades.”

NOT GIVING UP ON HYDROGEN

The hydrogen-EV switch doesn’t mean Maine is giving up on hydrogen. Commissioner Melanie Loyzim of the Maine Environmental Protection Agency said hydrogen will be an important clean energy option for hard-to-electrify sectors such as heavy-duty vehicles, industrial and aviation.

“As technology costs fall and green hydrogen becomes more common, it is anticipated that hydrogen will become a more feasible alternative for difficult-to-electrify applications,” Loyzim said. “Hydrogen will play an important role in providing clean fuels for these uses.”

Many of the goals in Maine Won’t Wait 2.0 are a continuation of goals in the state’s initial plan released in 2020, but others have been retooled to ensure the benefits reach all Mainers:

• 40,000 heat pumps in low-income homes by 2030
• 10,000 low-income homes will be exposed to weatherization by 2030
• 1,500 clean, energy-efficient, affordable housing units created annually
• 15,000 rooftop solar or community solar registrations for low- or moderate-income homes by 2030
• 40% of climate resilience grants to disadvantaged communities.

Scientists who gave paint advice to the council A warmer, wetter future for Maine: Depending on global emission rates, the average temperature will increase by 2-4 degrees in 2050 and up to 10 degrees in 2100. Rainfall is increasing overall, with heavier showers, but droughts will also intensify.

Dry periods will become drier and rainy periods will become wetter. The 2020 growing season was the driest on record; The summer of 2023 was the rainiest summer. Like storms that cause more than one thing $90 million in public infrastructure damage and millions in private property losses Last winter will be even busier.

The Gulf of Maine has risen about 7.5 inches in the last century; about half of this has occurred since the 1990s. The Maine Climate Council projects that seas will rise another 1.1 to 3.2 feet by 2050 and another 10 to 9.3 feet by 2100, depending on how much we reduce global emissions rates.

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