• The Chinese military has flown into Taiwan’s ADIZ almost every day since 2020.

• The crossings of the center line increased rapidly, which completely wiped him out.

• Attacks and large-scale military exercises are wearing down Taiwan’s military.

China’s warplanes put pressure on Taiwan and they have all but obliterated an important dividing line, creating a dangerous new normal with attacks occurring almost daily.

Since 2020, Taiwan has been publishing regular, almost daily updates on attacks by Chinese military aircraft on its air defense identification zone. It also documented China’s sustained efforts to disrupt the Taiwan Strait median line established in 1955.

The researchers are Thomas J. Shattuck, a nonresident fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Fellow, and PLATracker The organization followed China’s increasingly bold behavior. A review of data from Taiwan found that ADIZ attacks over the past four years increasingly rejected the unofficial dividing line put in place to resolve conflicts.

China’s military incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ and midline crossings in the Taiwan Strait have increased rapidly; With ADIZ attacks increasing from an average of 2.56 aircraft per day four years ago to 11.63 currently.

A country’s ADIZ extends well beyond its territorial airspace, but the area is closely monitored for national security purposes. When Chinese aircraft enter Taiwan’s de facto ADIZ, it dispatches combat air patrol (CAP) aircraft in response.

In 2021, the Chinese military flew 972 aircraft into Taiwan’s ADIZ, and this number almost doubled in 2022. 1,703 aircraft registered in 2023. It looks set to be a record number in 2024, with more than 2,000 aircraft documented as of September. They are also no longer limited to one corner of the ADIZ.

Crossings of the median line have become increasingly common since August 2022, when then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi controversially visited Taiwan, and China has been steadily eliminating it altogether. In a recent exercise surrounding Taiwan, 111 Chinese warplanes flew over this area, the highest in a single day. A few years ago in Taiwan hundreds of people could be seen crossing the line, but only months later.

“We’ve become desensitized to the large number of military aircraft flying across the middle line of the Taiwan Strait,” Shattuck told Business Insider. “Five years ago this was unheard of. Now it’s just a Thursday.”

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and has not ruled out using its growing military to achieve unification; This raises concerns in Taipei, the United States and other Western countries that China may one day introduce a new law. blockade or full scale invasion Forcing Taiwan to submit to Beijing’s authority.

Beijing’s tactics include intimidation and coercion, including political and economic pressure and mass military exercises. Forcing the Taiwanese people to reject independence.

Recently, two joint force exercises named “Joint Sword 2024-A” and “Common Sword 2024-B” have shown that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army has effectively surrounded Taiwan, how it can blockade important ports and regions, and sea and land He saw it simulate how he could attack his targets. and capture the territory.

Taiwan’s defense ministry said during “Common Sword 2024-B”: Record number of Chinese warplanesMore than 150 people flew to ADIZ in one day. In response, Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te, said China aimed to “undermine stability and the status quo.”

Chinese attacks tire Taiwanese forces

ADIZ attacks, which occur almost every day, do not only change the status quo in the region; they also exhaust the Taiwanese army.

In October 2020, then-Taiwan Minister of National Defense Yen Teh-fa said Taipei’s air force and navy spent almost $1 billion tracking Chinese sorties. Taiwan has since adjusted its response to ADIZ violations to allocate resources, but this remains burdensome.

In this difficult situation, Shattuck said, “The concern is the continued deterioration of Taiwan’s military assets and the depletion of Taiwan’s military personnel,” adding that China would “destroy Taiwan’s military capabilities” by flooding the field and forcing Taiwan to choose what it deserves. He explained that he was exploiting. an answer.”

With one of China’s large-scale exercises suddenly becoming a real deal and “long overdue and overdue” U.S. aid to Taiwan, this could hamper Taiwan’s preparedness, Shattuck said.

“The middle line of the Taiwan Strait—a de facto border that creates a semblance of stability across the Strait—no longer exists,” Lewis and Shattuck recently wrote, and “Taiwan cannot back down on all fronts against these PRC attacks.”

Saying that this was an exhausting struggle, officials argued that China’s military activities around Taiwan “have become normalized and are part of the increasingly deteriorating status quo in the Taiwan Strait”, but Taipei and Washington still have cards to play.

Taiwan has spent years waging rocky relations with Beijing, which opposes the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and labels Lai a “separatist”.

In his inauguration speech, Lai vowed to promote Taiwan’s democracy as a global beacon and called on China to end intimidation against Taiwan. The speech further inflamed relations and was soon followed by “Common Sword 2024-A”. Lai showed restraint in his calls for peace and understanding by toning down his rhetoric in his National Day speech earlier this month.

“Lai’s National Day speech shows that Taipei is trying to find ways to extend an olive branch to China while maintaining its claims to de facto sovereignty of Taiwan,” Crisis Group’s China Senior Analyst Amanda Hsiao told BI. However, China’s reaction to “Common Sword 2024-B” was intense and sent a message.

No matter what Lai says or how he approaches relations, Shattuck said China doesn’t trust him.

“It no longer matters what kind of olive branches a DPP chairman might extend because Beijing won’t accept them,” he said, “and Beijing is trying to accelerate the squeeze on Taiwan’s own sovereign territory.” This has implications for Taiwan and its international partners.

Shattuck said that as the Chinese military continues its attacks on Taiwan’s ADIZ region, Washington and its allies “need to be vigilant in protesting these activities so that it is clear that military pressure on Taiwan is unacceptable.”

“It is unrealistic to claim that Taiwan or the United States can stop PRC air and sea attacks around Taiwan,” he and Lewis wrote, but there are options. “Washington should work to improve Taiwan’s ability to monitor the situation on its territory and provide it with the resources necessary to step back when necessary,” they said.

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