Early voting has started Election observers are paying close attention to what these numbers mean For the results of the November 5 elections. Still it is late decision voter Who will ultimately determine who wins the Presidency, the House of Representatives, and the Senate? While it may be hard to believe that there are still some people who can’t decide who to vote for, these people do exist. Early voters tend to be among the most partisan. Late decision-makers are among the least informed and least partisan among us.. Ultimately, it is crucial to understand who these people are and what helps them make decisions.

Examining Ohio’s U.S. Senate race is instructive. Race Most expensive in the countryOver $400 million has been spent and counting. It is thought that Democrats must win to retain control of the Senate.

The race between incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown and his Republican challenger Bernie Moreno appears to be very close. Drawing survey of likely Ohio voters we recently conducted, Ultimately, we find a significant number of respondents (7%) who have not yet decided who they will support. We see that Brown is up 47% and Moreno is up 45%. That small number of undecideds translates into more than 400,000 voters if Ohio’s turnout reaches 2020 levels.

So who exactly are these people? In our survey, 79 percent are women, 78 percent are white, more than two-thirds vary between having a college education or a master’s degree, and 51 percent are independent. 52 percent say they are moderate, and 1 in 5 describe themselves as conservative. Undecided voters are more likely to be Republicans than Democrats (20% to 7%)

We also found that those who said they voted for Trump in 2020 were nearly twice as likely to be undecided voters as those who said they voted for Biden in 2020 (43% vs. 23%).. We also see that they are much less politically active than their more committed counterparts, have little interest in politics, and much less interest in political campaigns.

These findings are closely related to other studies. Late-deciding voters tend to be less partisan, less ideological, and have a college degree. They tend to be infrequent voters and generally do not follow politics as closely as more committed voters. It’s likely that many of these undecided voters are just starting to pay attention to the campaign, making whatever information they come into contact with incredibly powerful in shaping their perspective on the race.

In the Ohio Senate contest, both campaigns are keenly aware of these characteristics and are tailoring their messages to them. Moreno attacks Brown “an absolute extremist on abortion“, a message aimed at moderates. Aiming to attract the attention of female voters, Moreno adds: “I have two daughters and the most influential person in my life is my mother. Someone will always defend women and ensure the protection of women…” This message seems to have been prepared to persuade undecided female voters it seems.

But Moreno made what could have been a damaging blunder. his video appeared says: “Unfortunately, by the way, there are a lot of suburban women, a lot of suburban women saying, ‘Listen, this is what abortion is. ‘If I can’t have an abortion whenever I want in this country, I’ll vote for someone else.’ OK. This is a little crazy, by the way, but especially for women over 50, I think to myself: ‘I don’t think this is a problem for you.’” Brown supporters point out that Moreno is an extremist on women’s issues.

Brown, however, has stuck to his message promoting the “dignity of work” and making clear that he opposes trade deals negotiated by US presidents. both parties. These messages are intended to resonate with moderate and independent voters, who are also among those most likely to decide late. To further encourage moderate and bipartisan attitudes bona fideBrown campaign releases ad featuring Republican Wood County Sheriff Mark Wasylyshyn. In the ad, Wasylyshyn says: Worked with Brown to stop the flow of fentanyl He said they went to the United States and the two visited the southern border together.

The messaging lessons we observe here translate well to the late-deciding voters that presidential campaigns are trying to capture in swing states. Messaging these voters is crucial to moving these late deciders to the Trump or Harris camps. It was those who made late decisions that put Trump in trouble They clearly crossed the finish line in 2016 In the last days of the election. Given how close the race is today, reaching and convincing these voters is a key priority for both campaigns. It is these voters who will ultimately determine the outcome of many races across the country on November 5th.

Robert Alexander is professor of political science and Founding Director of the Democracy and Public Policy Research Network at Bowling Green State University. He is the author of the book Representation and Electoral College published by Oxford University Press.

David J. Jackson is Professor of Political Science at Bowling Green State University in Ohio. His main research topic is the relationship between politics and culture. He is the author of the book: “Entertainment and Politics: The Influence of Popular Culture on the Political Socialization of Young Adults” as well as articles in magazines such as Political Research Quarterly Newsletter, Polish American Studies, International Journal of Press/PoliticsAnd Journal of Political Marketing.