Former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the election plummeted Wednesday, according to best election forecasts.

With less than a week until Election Day, The Economist’s forecast showed that Republican The candidate’s projected Electoral College votes have dropped six points since Tuesday, from 275 to 269.

The drop means Trump and Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris are tied with 269 electoral votes each. In this scenario, neither will win the Electoral College and the election will be left in the hands of the election. CongressThe presidential election goes to the House, and the vice presidential race goes to the House. Senate.

According to the forecast, Trump’s chances decreased from 56 percent to 50 percent, while Harris’ chances increased from 44 percent to 50 percent. This forecast also shows that Harris will win the battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, and Trump will win Arizona. , Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

news week He contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment.

Harris’s gain hinges on a series of polls in the Rust Belt states of Michigan and Wisconsin, which are up 7 and 8 points, respectively, since Tuesday. Increased chances of winning North Carolinaincreased by 5 points in one day.

Harris leads nationally 49 percent to 48 percent, according to The Economist’s poll tracker.

Other poll aggregators suggest Harris has won the popular vote, while Trump is on track to win the Electoral College, which would send him back to the Oval Office. Pollster Nate Silver‘s forecast shows Harris with a 0.9 point lead and a 71 percent chance of winning the popular vote. But because of Trump’s standing in swing states, his forecast puts Harris’s chance of winning the Electoral College at 44 percent to Trump’s 55 percent.

Meanwhile, 538 shows Harris leading by 1.4 points nationally but gives Trump a 52 percent chance of winning to Harris’ 48 percent.

Both data aggregators show Trump ahead in Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania, while Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, but her margins have fallen in both states over the past month. The 538 forecast shows Harris with a 0.1 point lead in Nevada, while Silver’s forecast shows the candidates tied. Harris previously had a lead of at least 2 points in the state.

One pollster suggested Polls may be underestimating Harris’ support.

Polls underestimated Trump’s support levels in 2016 and 2020. CNN According to analyst Harry Enten, the situation may reverse.

“That’s the gist of it,” he said. “I think a lot of people count that Donald Trump Actually the polls are going to be underestimated, but when I look at the evidence, I think maybe there are people who are underestimating this idea. Kamala Harris “He’ll be underestimated in the polls for at least a week.”

However, with one week left, the race will get even more intense.

“The race went from almost a toss-up to an absolute toss-up,” says Jon Parker, a senior lecturer in American studies at Keele University in the United Kingdom. said news week last week.