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Here’s Who’s Leading in Wisconsin in the 2024 Presidential Election Polls?

Harry October 31, 2024

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Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in Wisconsin, according to three new polls released in recent days, but poll averages show Trump cutting into Harris’ advantage in the critical swing state, making it less than a virtual tie. It shows. One week before Election Day.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to supporters at a campaign rally in West Allis on July 23. … (+) Wisconsin

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Basic Information

Harris up 50% to 49% among likely voters at Marquette Law School questionnaire Released Wednesday, which includes undecided voters leaning toward one of the candidates (margin of error 4.4 points), it shows Trump significantly narrowing the six-point lead Harris had in the school previous survey It was released on October 2.

Harris has a larger lead of 51-45 percent CNN/SSRS pollagain on Wednesday (margin of error 4.8 points).

Harris leads over Trump 50 percent to 47 percent in Cooperative Election Poll questionnaire It was published this week by YouGov (1,542 respondents) as part of a national study conducted by universities.

Trump has a narrow one-point advantage at Emerson College questionnaire While the margin of error is 3.4 for voters released on Thursday, the candidates are tied in two other polls conducted last week: Quinnipiac questionnaire which found them with 48% support and Bloomberg/Morning Consult questionnaire This puts Trump up 48.3%-48%.

Harris leads by three points, 50% to 47%, in Washington Post-Schar School questionnaire percentage of likely voters (margin of error 4.6) released last week and in the Wall Street Journal in early October questionnaire It showed that they achieved 48% equality among registered voters.

Most polls in Wisconsin—where 10 electoral votes can be crucial—reflect a razor-thin race; Harris leads by just 0.3 points on FiveThirtyEight. weighted average.

Voter turnout in Wisconsin could be high in November because the state has so many competitive U.S. House races and Republicans are in a tight race to maintain majority control in the state House, said Anthony Chergosky, an assistant professor of political science at the university. of Wisconsin-La Crosse said WUWM public radio in Milwaukee.

The Cook Political Report also sees the decline in support for Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin in the Wisconsin Senate race as a warning sign for Democrats. carried the state His lead from weak Democrat to a loss last week after finding his lead over Republican Eric Hovde has fallen from seven points to two since August, but a Marquette Law School poll also released last week found him still holding a seven-point advantage.

Biden won Wisconsin by less than a point in 2020, flipping the state after Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016; Former President Barack Obama won the state by decisive margins in both 2008 and 2012.

Tangent

In Wisconsin, Republicans control both the state House and the Senate, and the governor’s office is held by Democrat Tony Evers.

Key Background

The race between Harris and Trump is a virtual tie, according to polls that show Trump’s lead narrowing after he led in most polls in the weeks after he replaced Biden in July. Wisconsin is among the seven swing states that will determine the winner of the 2024 election, along with Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia. Winning the three “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin is considered the clearest path to 270 electoral delegate votes, assuming Harris also takes all the other states won by Biden in 2020.