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Here’s Who Is Winning in the Latest Trump-Harris Presidential Polls?

Harry October 30, 2024

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Vice President Kamala Harris holds a single-digit lead over former President Donald Trump in the six most recent national polls; polls show a virtual neck-and-neck race for the White House marked by a draw in all seven polls oscillation statesmaking the race wildly unpredictable as the election draws closer.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally in Ann Arbor, Michigan, on October 28.

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Basic Information

Harris leads Trump 49 percent to 47 percent among latest voters Economist/YouGov poll As of Wednesday, 2% were unsure and roughly 3% supported other candidates (margin of error 3.6) — a slight narrowing from Harris’ 49%-46% advantage last week.

Harris is up 51%-47%, with just 3% still undecided. likely voter survey By the Co-operative Election Study, a survey of nearly 50,000 people between 1-25 October, supported by several universities and conducted by YouGov.

Trump also trails Harris 44%-43% in Reuters/Ipsos report questionnaire Released Tuesday (margin of error 3 points), it represents a narrowed lead for Harris since she entered the race in July; The previous Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Harris with a two-point lead.

According to Morning Consult’s report, Harris is three points ahead of Trump, 50%-47% weekly surveyIt was also announced on Tuesday, after the group had a four-point lead in its previous two polls, 50%-46% (margin of error 1 point).

Harris leads Trump by four points, 51 percent to 47 percent ABC/Ipsos poll The share of likely voters released on Sunday is up slightly from the 50-48% margin in early October. CBS/YouGov Polling Sunday shows Harris up 50%-49%; this is a shift from the vice president’s 51-48% lead in mid-October (the ABC poll had a margin of error of 2.5 and the CBS poll had a margin of error of 2.6).

Emerson College Survey survey (October 23-24) published on saturday The two candidates are tied at 49% (the poll has a margin of error of 3), after finding Harris leading 49% to 48% a week ago, and this is the first time Emerson has not led Harris in its weekly poll It’s been happening since August.

Trump and Harris are also deadlocked at 48% among likely voters in the New York Times/Siena questionnaire The Times notes that the results published Friday (margin of error 2.2) are “not encouraging” for Harris because Democrats won the popular vote in the last election even though they lost the White House.

The Times poll shows a decline in support for Harris since the newspaper’s previous poll in early October showed her with a 49% to 46% lead over Trump; At least three polls in the past week show Trump with a narrow advantage, while six other polls show Harris with a narrow advantage over Trump. Harris is ahead.

The candidates are also dead-on at 47%, according to CNN/SSRS. questionnaire Released on Friday (margin of error 3.1), this also represents a bearish trend for Harris; This increased Trump’s lead from 48% to 47% in the groups’ September poll, while the poll conducted just after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race found Trump at 49%. support and Harris with 46%.

Trump ahead 48 percent to 46 percent CNBC research The proportion of registered voters reported Thursday (margin of error is 3.1) and he is ahead by a margin of 47 percent to 45 percent. Wall Street Magazine Wednesday’s registered voter poll results (margin of error 2.5) — a shift in Trump’s favor since August. Harris led 47% to 45% in a Journal poll.

Trump also leads Harris by two points, 51 percent to 49 percent, among national voters, including voters leaning toward one candidate. HarrisX/Forbes research It was announced on Wednesday (margin of error 2.5) and rose one point from 49% to 48% without the so-called leans.

Harris has erased Trump’s lead over Biden since July 21, when she announced her candidacy, but Harris’s advantage has decreased in the last two months, reaching 3.7 points at the end of August, according to FiveThirtyEight. weighted voting average

Important Reminder: Presidential Polls Are Often Wrong

And there’s a lot of speculation this year about how wrong they were and who it might benefit. read all about it in this story.

Who Do Polls Predict to Win the Election: Harris or Trump?

According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump has won the electoral college 52 times out of 100, while Harris is the favorite 48 times. election prediction.

Big Number

1.4. This shows how many points Harris leads Trump on FiveThirtyEight voting average. Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics voting average It shows Trump leading by 0.4 points and Nate Silver leading Harris by 0.9 points. Silver Bulletin forecast.

How Is Harris Performing Against Trump in Swing States?

Harris leads Michigan And Wisconsinand Trump is leading Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia And Arizona; they are tied NevadaAccording to Silver Bulletin. However, most of the seven swing states have margins of less than one percentage point.

Surprising Fact

A survey from: NBC News The report, published on September 29, revealed that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, her lead has narrowed. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll, conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters, showed 54 percent backing Harris, 40 percent backing Trump and 6 percent unsure who to vote for. Support for Harris is higher than when Biden ran against Trump, NBC said, but remains significantly lower than past leads held by Democratic candidates, including a 36-point lead in the 2020 poll and a 50-point lead in the 2016 poll. The poll’s margin of error was 3.1 percent.

How did the debate affect the polls?

Pre-debate polls find Harris’s polling surge looks steady, including from NPR/PBS/Marist questionnaire The count of registered voters taken Sept. 3-5 showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%; This rate decreased compared to the three point difference in August. Most post-debate polls show a majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but that’s not enough to significantly impact the horse race between the two. New York Times/Siena questionnaire 67 percent of likely voters released on September 19 found that a majority of voters in every demographic viewed Harris’ debate performance on September 10 favorably; Overall, 67 percent said Harris did a good job, while 40 percent said the same for Trump. Harris gained 52-46% among likely voters and 51-47% among registered voters. ABC News/Ipsos poll The decision, made just days after the Sept. 11-13 debate, probably didn’t change much from his six-point lead with voters. end of august And early august ABC/Ipsos polls—although 63% of Americans He said Harris won argument.

Key Background

Biden dropping out of school He called it quits on July 21 after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his reelection bid following his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. HE approved immediately He and Harris announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly rallied around him, and 99% of Democratic delegates voted to officially nominate him in a virtual roll call ahead of the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced he had chosen Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 in Philadelphia. Harris’s rise in the polls has been combined with the increase in Democrats’ enthusiasm for the election. almost doubled Since Harris joined the race, 85% has risen from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has held steady at 71%, according to Monmouth University. questionnaire It was released on August 14.