Florida’s Democratic state lawmakers know they can’t take control of Tallahassee this year. But they see an opportunity to improve their modest position.

Republicans’ supermajority in the state House of Representatives may be vulnerable, according to recent polls. If Democrats hold all the seats, they need to replace at least five other Republicans won in 2022 to break that hurdle.

The GOP’s two-thirds or more majority in the House means Republicans do not need Democratic support to approve new taxes and fees, waive certain legislative rules or override the governor’s veto.

“Republicans don’t need the minority caucus for anything right now,” said Rep. Fentrice Driskell, D-Tampa, chair of the Florida House Democratic Campaign Committee. “While our caucus is a minority, we represent millions of Floridians who may not share the political ideology of the majority.”

After dismal turnout from Democrats in 2022, the GOP won 85 of 120 House seats in 2022 and still controls 83 seats. (One seat changed in a special election; the other is vacant.)

In that election, Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Marco Rubio defeated their opponents by 19 and 16 points, respectively.

But 2024 may be closer. The Republicans at the top of the list — former President Donald Trump and incumbent U.S. Sen. Rick Scott — lead their opponents by single digits in many cases. surveys.

Even Trump and Scott’s friendliest polls show DeSantis trailing his high score from last election, suggesting a tougher environment ahead for Republicans.

There is also a supermajority in the Florida Senate, but this is safer. Driskell believes there’s only one seat Democrats can win here — the 3rd District — while the party has a “really good chance in the chamber.”

GOP legislative candidates won fewer than 80 seats in 2016, 2018 and 2020.

Turning to those numbers, Driskell is aiming to flip eight seats, including one in Tampa, and has stepped up his registration and get-out-the-vote efforts there.

The targets are Districts 37, 38, 45 and 47 in Central Florida, District 65 in Tampa, and Districts 91, 106 and 113 in South Florida.

Driskell said Democrats are examining where they have an advantage in voter registration.

As of closing accounts, active registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in four of the eight targeted districts. Across the group, 33 percent of active voters are Republicans, 32 percent are Democrats, and 35 percent are not registered with a major party.

Democratic Party candidates here received 48% of the vote in 2022; this was eight points higher than Charlie Crist’s statewide result.

Precinct data shows Biden outperformed Trump among voters in the same neighborhoods in 2020.

Driskell predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris’ supporters would support Democrats.

“His race will have coats that will help everyone else,” he said.

Republicans, meanwhile, are “focused on preserving the majority and helping Republicans get to the finish line in November,” House Speaker Daniel Perez, R-Miami, wrote in a statement.

Statewide, Republicans vastly outnumbered Democrats.

But in some of the target races, Democrats’ fundraising efforts, supported by smaller donors, have caught up. A Times analysis of campaign finance data found that Democrats were ahead in fundraising in four of eight races, although average donations were much lower.

Targets include House District 65, which represents downtown Tampa, South Tampa and areas along Old Tampa Bay. Democrat Ashley Brundage, a business owner, is challenging incumbent Republican incumbent Karen Gonzalez Pittman, a business owner and former public school employee, for the first time.

Republicans have a registration advantage in the district, and 54% of voters chose Pittman in 2022, the reddest result of the eight races.

But Brundage said his party hopes the turnout will equal that of 2020, when Biden beat Trump by four points in the district.

37 percent of voters in the district are Republicans, and about 30 percent are registered as Democrats or unaffiliated voters.

Democrats expect voters without their party to help. Brundage said the presidential race and high-profile changes on abortion and marijuana could prompt many of those voters to turn out to vote.

Pittman has raised more than $570,000 so far, outperforming his opponent 3 to 1.

Pittman received more than $48,000 from Walt Disney Parks and Resorts and nearly $42,000 from the Tampa-based Educators and Parents for School Excellence committee. Brundage’s biggest donors were individuals who gave $5,000 each. David Steinglass, a retired private equity fund manager, and gay rights activist Joseph Falk are among the leading Democratic fundraisers.

If she wins, Brundage will become Florida’s first transgender representative.

Republicans attack this part of his identity. The Florida House Republican Campaign Committee sent out mailers calling the Tampa woman “BIOLOGICAL MAN” in all caps.

Brundage went after Pittman on abortion rights and cited him. A largely party-driven vote that provides subsidies to insurance companieshe calls it a “bailout.”

Pittman did not respond to multiple requests for comment over several days but indicated he would attend a funeral on Monday.

More than 40,000 of the more than 116,000 voters in the district cast ballots Tuesday morning, according to county data.

• • •

Tampa Bay Times Election News

2024 general election voter guide: Over 90 local candidates on issues: Here’s who’s running and their stances on abortion, immigration, local schools and more.

Why Florida Democrats should be optimistic and why they should be pessimistic: For the first time in a while, Democrats appear to be a little hurt. Is it real?

Here are 6 changes Floridians will vote on in November: The proposals deal with abortion, marijuana, hunting and fishing and more.

Florida’s Amendment 1 explained: Partisan school board elections will appear on the ballot this election.

How Florida’s Amendment 2 may affect hunting and fishing: The constitutional right to fish and hunt will be on the ballot.

Change 3: Florida’s recreational marijuana ballot measure announced.

5 Tampa Bay congressional races are set. Here’s who’s running.

If Florida votes on abortion and marijuana, will lawmakers comply? Florida’s Republican leaders oppose both changes.