Identifying players who have run particularly hot or cold in recent weeks will be the goal of the field heading into the 2024 NFL season.

Spotting men who are “due” doesn’t always work because my kids recently lost my magic eight ball, leaving me powerless to predict the future. Still, we insist on finding NFL players who have performed above their opportunities and are on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance. Because “luck” is a very crude and simple thing.

Let’s get into it.

Positive Regression Candidates

quarterback

Aaron Rodgers (NYJ)

It doesn’t sit well to include the quarterback who ranks fourth-worst in regression success rate this season as a positive regression candidate. But I must do this. The numbers leave me no choice.

Over the past four weeks, only six quarterbacks on the Jets offense have had more passing yards than Rodgers, with a staggeringly high 69 percent dropback rate. But the goals weren’t there for the old A-Rod. He has posted a modest 3.2 percent touchdown rate since Week 4 and has been especially cold on red zone attempts.

If the Jets maintain their pass-first offense, there’s a good chance Rodgers will capitalize on the touchdown pass in the coming weeks. He sees a lot of high-leverage pass attempts: Only Joe Burrow and Brock Purdy have more throws inside the 20 through Week 8 than Rodgers.

Geno Smith (SEA)

I’m sick of it, you’re sick of it, we’re all sick of it. But Geno remains in the positive regression column because, man, this guy is gaining a lot of yards without scoring a lot of touchdowns.

To give you an idea of ​​how cool Geno is running: He has one (1) touchdown pass every 282 yards in the last five games. His 2.6 percent touchdown rate is the third-lowest in the NFL and well below his 4.5 percent rate over the past two seasons. Passing yardage accounted for 75 percent of Seattle’s total yardage through Week 8, and the Seahawks’ above-expected 9.2 percent passing rate leads the NFL by a wide margin.

I don’t think Geno can defy the math for much longer. We will see.

Running Back

Bucky Irvin (TB)

Clearly the Bucs’ best running back, Irving is proving to be a more efficient runner and pass catcher than backcourt mate Rachaad White.

An underrated part of Irving’s fantasy upside is his involvement in the red and green zone. Irving, who had 84 yards receiving on 16 touchdowns against Atlanta last week, had more rushing inside the five than all but three rushers. His 10-of-12 rankings rank ninth among backs, but he has just three points from those scrimmages.

With a well-performing offense, Irving is a must-start player in 12-team formats with plenty of high-value touches in the high-volume Tampa offense. Irving was targeted on 19 percent of his routes; This is a good indication that Baker Mayfield, who targeted the running back 14 times in Week 7, will continue to charge Irving in the passing game.

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)

Stevenson got there with fantastic intentions in Week 8, averaging a breathtakingly abysmal 2.4 yards per carry against his opponent. funnel run Jets defense. Here it is: The power of two goals.

It’s clear that the Patriots want to lean more on the run when the game script allows it. That was the theory behind starting Stevenson last week against New York, and it worked because the Jets were terrible. In an offense with a neutral passing rate of 52 percent (fifth-lowest passing rate in the NFL), Stevenson should see great offensive volume and a small amount of passing game involvement in games with good play scripts. A game like this could be in store for Week 9 against the mind-boggling Titans.

Wide Receiver

Amari Cooper (BUF)

Cooper had just five catches for 69 scoreless yards in two games with the Bills. He had a near-full route split against the Seahawks in Week 8 and got two looks from Josh Allen. Those who thought Cooper showed glimpses of goal command in Week 7 were not so good (to me).

In two games with Buffalo, Cooper has been targeted on a not entirely hateful 19 percent of pass routes. He ranks second on the team in air yards in those two games, behind Keon Coleman. It wasn’t all bad for Gazi.

The bull case for Cooper may lie in the new pass-first Bills offense. In Week 7 they were 14 percent above expected passage rates (PROE), and in Week 8 they were 1 percent above. This is in stark contrast to the -4 percent PROEs prior to Cooper’s arrival. I caution Cooper drafters not to give up on their guy just yet.

Calvin Ridley (ON)

I’m putting Ridley in this positive regression area because I don’t think he can improve on his 10-catch, 113-yard performance against the Lions last week, but because I think the kind of opportunity Ridley saw against Detroit will be the new norm in football. Hopkins post-Tennessee offense.

Since Week 5, only three players have accumulated more air yards than Ridley. In Week 8, Ridley ranked ninth in air yards (137) and saw a ridiculous 39.5 percent target share. This came after Titans coaches said they were done forcing the ball to Ridley. So it goes.

In last week’s Funnel Defense Report, I mentioned Ridley as a possible beneficiary of the new Titans offense without DeAndre Hopkins in a matchup against one of the NFL’s most prominent pass funnel defenses in Detroit. Fortunately for Ridley, the Titans are in terrible shape and will be chasing points for the remainder of the regular season. He needs to be locked into the 12-team roster.

Tyreek Hill (MIA)

You’re inconsolable after Tua’s spectacular return and Hill’s disappointing day against the Cardinals in Week 8, which was supposed to be the Hill dominance that sank your team this season. You had 72 scoreless yards on six carries against Arizona. Pain knows no bounds.

I’ll try to reassure you with these words: Hill led the Dolphins with 49 percent airfield share and 24 percent target share against the Cardinals. Miami was 1 percent above expected passing rate; It’s a marked increase from how well they avoided Tua being out of the lineup. Don’t go crazy and bench Hill in Week 9. Don’t trade him unless you get a legitimate offer. He will come.

Tight End

Dalton Schultz (HOU)

With Stefon Diggs out with a knee injury, the Texans have no choice but to make Schultz a central piece of their (somewhat demoralizing) passing offense. We’ve seen Schultz’s opportunities increase with Nico Collins (hamstring) sidelined: Since Week 6, only seven tight ends have more targets than Schultz (17). He also ranks in the top 10 in tight end passing routes.

More importantly, Schultz runs nearly 60 percent of his routes through the gap (a higher percentage than all but five tight corners in the last three weeks). As you know, tight ends tend to produce more fantasy points when operating from the slot. Schultz has a chance to break into the top 10 fantasy plays in terms of volume alone in the coming weeks. With an average depth of 8 targets, it profiles as a legitimate PPR scam that we love.

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Negative Regression Candidates

quarterback

Baker Mayfield (TB)

The fact that Baker has suddenly become an unquestionably elite fantasy option should excite your fantasy football spidey senses. Or maybe you were on the toilet too long checking your order and your legs were numb. Either way, something isn’t quite right with Mayfield’s recent production.

Mayfield has scored on 7.6 percent of his goals in the last four games. That includes scoring at least three goals in each of his last four outings. This may have something to do with Tampa’s bottom-dwelling defense leaving the offense no choice but to let it rip through the air; Only the Seahawks and Bengals have a higher-than-expected passing rate on the season. Even so, Mayfield, whose career TD rate is 4.8 percent, is getting unsustainably hot right now.

Don’t be cute and start Mayfield with the game’s best QB plays in Week 9.

Wide Receiver

Ladd McConkey (LAC)

A big reason why I mentioned McConkey as a positive running back candidate in last week’s article was because the Chargers have been an uncharacteristically first pick in recent weeks. This trend continued (to some extent) against the Saints in Week 8, as the Bolts were 3 percent above the expected drop rate.

I’m writing this to make you feel bad about the excitement of starting McConkey, who caught all six of his targets for 111 yards and two touchdowns (and nearly scored his third TD) against a lackluster New Orleans offense. Ladd’s 20 percent target share against the Saints wasn’t stellar, nor was his 73 air yards that day, which ranked second among Los Angeles pass catchers.

That doesn’t mean you can’t start McConkey as a WR3 in 12-team formats. You can. I will allow this. The target run rate of 23.5 percent per route is on the strong side. Just don’t go crazy and treat McConkey like a locked-and-loaded WR2 option.

Tight End

Mark Andrews (BAL)

Andrews, as you probably know, has allowed four goals in his last 13 goals. This is enough to wake the Regression Reaper from its slumber.

It’s not as if Andrews has become the focal point of Baltimore’s passing offense. Before Week 6, when his hot streak began, Andrews was targeted on 16 percent of pass rushes. This rate increased to 18.5 percent in the last three weeks. It’s not even worth saying. While Andrews’ involvement in the red zone has been good, his spreadsheet-shattering efficiency cannot last long.

On six red zone targets in 2024, Andrews has a tidy six receptions for four touchdowns. Meanwhile, Isaiah Likely has ten inside the 20 and seven inside the 10 from Lamar Jackson. Be wary of Andrews in Week 9 and beyond.

Tucker Kraft (England)

Kraft is a freak, a natural playmaker, Kittle-like in the chaos he plays with. Kraft is good, maybe really good, and can be dominant in a slightly denser offense with a slightly denser target distribution. Unfortunately, that’s not his situation in 2024.

Through Week 5, Kraft ranks 22nd in tight end targets (16) and fifth in tight end receiving yards (212). His 17.7 yards per reception ranks first among all tight ends in that span, and so do his yards after the catch per reception. Kraft is doing what good players do: making the most of limited opportunities.

You probably have no choice but to start Kraft, but I wouldn’t count him among the game’s elite tight ends unless he takes on a larger role in the intentionally spread-out Green Bay passing offense. Kraft is not a reliable target commander; He saw a target on just 14 percent of his pass routes through Week 8. It’s largely a boom-bust option until further notice.