Did you get the flu last winter? If so, you are one of at least 34 million people in the United States who became ill during what the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention considers the disease to be a disease. “Moderate severe” flu season. These cases have at least been concluded 15 million medical visits380,000 hospitalizations and 17,000 deaths.

Experts predict this year could be similar, and fortunately the flu vaccine is well-matched with the strains likely to be circulating.

Flu trends in the southern hemisphere

UNC Health pulmonologist and intensivist says we can predict what the flu season in the U.S. might be like by looking at the flu season that just ended in the southern hemisphere Subhashini Sellers, MD.

Dr. “The seasons have changed in the southern hemisphere, so they’ve just gotten through winter,” says Sellers. “This is not a perfect predictive tool, but its data helps us understand current virus strains and transmission.”

Although there were a few exceptions, most countries experienced moderate flu levels compared to previous years. Chile and Zambia Very high rates of influenza have been seen, with multiple strains circulating at the same time, and several countries have experienced high levels of flu-related hospitalizations. Many countries report that the flu season starts earlier than in previous seasons.

In the southern hemisphere, the dominant strains were H3N2 and H1N1. Both of these strains are influenza A viruses and were also dominant during last year’s flu season. Dr. Sellers says there are fewer amounts of influenza B virus circulating during flu season in the southern hemisphere; Influenza B can cause more serious consequences in children.

Good news: These types were expected in this year’s creation flu vaccine.

“The current flu vaccine is a trivalent vaccine that protects against three strains (H3N2, H1N1, and a B strain),” says Sellers. “This vaccine is highly compatible with these strains, and the CDC estimates that the serious consequences of influenza can be reduced by 30 to 50 percent with the vaccine.”

Predicting the 2024-2025 flu season

Last flu season, Return to pre-COVID-19 flu patternsRather than peaking early or lasting into the summer, as in the years immediately following the pandemic, activity peaks between late December and late February and tapers off by mid-May.

But don’t be surprised if you start noticing your friends or co-workers catching the flu in late October and early November; This is when the increase tends to start.

Still, it is impossible to predict when cases will peak: Dr. “In the past, this has been very fluid,” says Sellers.

Of course, flu is not the only respiratory virus circulating during the fall and winter months. As in previous years, the coming months will also take shape COVID-19 And RSVor respiratory syncytial virus.

“With the combination of these three viruses, hospitalizations will probably be similar to last season or maybe a little better,” he says.

However, this estimate may change.

“If there is a new strain of respiratory virus, such as a new COVID-19 variant, that could impact hospitalizations,” Sellers says. The current COVID-19 vaccine protects against the last known strains.

The hospitalization rate also depends on whether people receive their treatment. flu vaccine.

Dr. “The more people who don’t get the flu vaccine, the higher the community transmission will be,” says Sellers. “More infections mean more hospitalizations and more severe disease outcomes.”

Protect yourself from flu and other respiratory viruses

Getting a flu vaccine will help reduce your risk of getting sick from the flu as well as your risk of serious complications. It is recommended that everyone over the age of 6 months get a flu vaccine every year.

The CDC recommends getting a flu vaccine by the end of October to be protected when cases start to rise, and it’s important to remember that it may take at least two weeks after vaccination to provide protection.

Still, Dr. “It’s never too late to get vaccinated,” Sellers says. “We saw infections continuing into late April and early May.”

If you are 65 or older, or if you are under 65 but have had an organ transplant, consult your doctor. Fluzone high dose vaccineProvides additional protection against flu. Your doctor may also recommend the RSV vaccine if you are pregnant or over 60, and the CDC recommends that everyone over 6 months of age get the 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccine.

In addition to vaccines, there are tried and true ways to minimize it. spread of disease.

Dr. “Make sure you practice hand hygiene, which protects you and reduces transmission,” says Sellers. “You may also consider wearing a mask during travel or in crowded indoor areas. “In the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, we found that wearing a mask reduced the transmission of all other respiratory viruses, including influenza.”

Subhashini Sellers, MD, is an assistant professor of pulmonology and critical care medicine at the UNC School of Medicine. He specializes in HIV-related lung diseases, serious respiratory viral infections, cystic fibrosis and critical care.