Regardless of who wins the US elections, the start of a new administration should be an opportunity for a serious reassessment of US policy towards the war in Ukraine. Because it is very clear that the current course is unsustainable and if this course is continued, it will sooner or later lead to either the collapse of Ukraine or NATO’s direct involvement in the war with Russia. This is actually now implicitly accepted Although some US commentators, such as Robert Kagan, have not been willing to tell Americans that they must go to war to prevent Ukraine’s defeat or a compromise peace.

The news coming from the Ukrainian front is deplorable. Ukrainian forces are heavy outnumbered and was second to none in artillery and ammunition. There are increasing symptoms fatiguedemoralization, escapeAnd avoidance It serves both elites and ordinary people. Russia’s success is based on the fact that Russia has many more resources than Ukraine, both in terms of industry and manpower. He managed to recruit hundreds of thousands of new soldiers by paying money. very high wagesup to six times the average salary in the regions where they were recruited.

Ukrainians and Western hawks argue that more Western weapons would make a critical difference; and in fact, it could have led to a much greater Ukrainian success if some of these had been achieved in 2022, when the Russian armed forces were outnumbered and in serious disarray. But now Russia’s advantage is so great that Western supplies can make little difference.

Western industry cannot produce anything like the number of artillery shells Ukraine needs; USA cannot provide sufficient Air defense systems for Israel And Ukrainian And Save enough money for a possible war with China. And most importantly, NATO cannot produce more soldiers for Ukraine. The German government had already announced that it was freezing military aid. cutting aid Ukraine will receive an increase of almost half next year and more than 90 percent by 2027.

Faced with this reality, the desperation of those in the West who advocate unconditional support for Ukraine’s complete victory is increasing. At the beginning of this year we said It has been said by the likes of retired General Ben Hodges that the (real) success of Ukrainian missiles and drones in driving the Russian Black Sea Fleet away from its bases in Crimea means that they could also dislodge the Russian military from Crimea and somehow win it back for Ukraine (after that he told us In June 2023, it was said that Ukraine “could liberate Crimea by the end of summer”. We were later told that Ukraine’s (real but very limited) attack on Russia’s Kursk region was a turning point. turning point in war. Now we are being told that Ukraine will be allowed to open fire. missiles The guidance of US satellites towards Russia will allow Ukraine to transform the war.

It is true that Ukrainian forces, with tremendous courage, forced the Russians to advance very slowly and suffered heavy losses. together with battle fatigue Due to the large portion of Russia’s population and Russia’s economic problems, this could allow Ukraine to reach a peace agreement that would limit Russia’s territorial gains and exclude NATO membership while allowing Ukraine to seek membership in the European Union at some point in the future. . This might be very painful for the Ukrainians, but it would still be a great victory in historical terms and much better than what they would get if the war continued. headlines However, phrases like “Ukraine needs to change course before negotiating” are meaningless if by this is meant not just a stubborn combat retreat, but also to push the Russians back.

Tragically, the Ukrainian government and Western organizations have so often condemned the idea of ​​a compromise peace and insisted on complete victory for Ukraine that it is now very difficult for them to change course. They’ve also said it so often by now that argument He said Putin would continue to attack NATO if he was allowed to keep the southeast of Ukraine, and they may even be starting to believe that meaningless themselves.

more believable argumentfor example, it was developed by Ivan Krastev. Finance TimesPutin currently has no incentive to seek peace due to the advancement of the Russian military; and that Ukraine’s offer of a ceasefire in exchange for withdrawal from the cities of Zaporozhye and Kherson (requested by Russia but not occupied) was completely unacceptable.

This is true to the fullest, but the counter-argument is that until we enter into negotiations with Russia we cannot discover which of Russia’s conditions are absolute and which are negotiable; and starting negotiations does not mean accepting Russia’s initial terms. Members of the Russian organization recommended In my view, the possibility of Russia giving up more territorial ambitions in exchange for a neutrality agreement that excludes NATO membership.

Let’s make this suggestion privately and see what Moscow’s response will be. Better yet, have neutral powers like India and Brazil make such peace overtures to the Russians. Given the efforts of the Russian government to influence these states and the “global majority”, it would be very difficult to turn down a peace initiative from them.

Western support for Ukraine must continue during the negotiations so that Ukrainian forces can slowly withdraw and continue to inflict heavy casualties, thereby encouraging the Russians to accept a compromise. But we should not deceive ourselves that our support will last forever or that it can help Ukraine regain lost territory. Therefore, we have no honest and valid alternative but to pressure the Ukrainian government to accept a compromise peace.

If the next US administration fails to follow this course, then there is a serious risk that the Ukrainian military will eventually collapse, as World War I armies did after years of trench warfare. Washington will find itself facing a choice between accepting Ukraine’s crushing defeat or intervening directly and risking, or even securing, nuclear war with Russia. We should hope that the leaders of the next administration have the intellectual clarity and moral courage to understand this and act accordingly.

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Anatol Lieven

Anatol Lieven is a senior fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Government and the author of, among other books: Ukraine and Russia: A Fraternal Rivalry.

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