One of the most effective ways to make a profit when betting on the NFL is closing line value (CLV). CLV is when the line you bet on before the game changes in your favor when kickoff comes. Books are often very sharp with their closing lines, but there is almost always value in the early stages of the week. While an extra point or two may not seem like much, it can make the difference between winning and losing money in the long run. Last week we were ahead 1-2 in our opening line selections. Green Bay Packers won but could not close the -4.5 point gap against the Jaguars. The Cowboys shot themselves in the foot on Sunday Night Football, with our only win coming from the New England Patriots trailing by seven points.

Before we get into Week 9’s keynote picks, here are the biggest stories from around the league after an eventful Week 8.

• Trouble in Minnesota? The Vikings had their perfect season ruined by the Lions in Week 7, but a loss to the free-falling Rams in Week 8 would be much less forgivable. The Vikings defense gave up 61 points in their last two games after allowing just 76 points in their first five wins.
• Same old Jets: There was real optimism around the Jets this season, but a loss to the Patriots sent them to a new low. They have now lost five matches in a row. With the Texans on the horizon, there really is no light at the end of the tunnel for the 2-6 Jets.
• Winston > Watson: The Cleveland Browns were inspired by Jameis Winston for their second win of the season. Against the Ravens, their offense came to life and Winston threw for 334 yards (Watson’s best in 19 games for Clevland was 289 yards). The playoffs may be long gone for the Browns, but there is hope once again for Cleveland.
• Lions’ offensive explosion: It’s hard to imagine a game where the quarterback had 85 passing yards but the team had 52 points. That’s exactly what happened for the Lions, as they quickly defeated the Titans to improve to 6-1 on the season.
• Miracle at Maryland: Jayden Daniels threw a 60-plus yard full Mary as time expired to lift the Commanders over the Bears on Sunday. The Commanders dominated the game for a long time, as something truly special was brewing in Washington.
• More misery for Cowboys: The San Francisco 49ers got their season back on track at the expense of the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas is currently 3-4 on the season with wins over the Steelers, Giants and Saints. Dak Prescott threw two more interceptions as his garbage time goal made the score look closer than it actually was.

Week 8 is now in the rearview mirror as teams look ahead to the second half of the NFL season. Be sure to lock in your Week 9 picks as soon as possible, because every extra CLV point you can get is crucial to turning a profit in the NFL.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL experts’ choice NFL predictions for every game on our page.

Game 1: Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens

Opening Line: Baltimore Ravens (-9)

The Ravens come into Week 9 as heavy favorites against the Denver Broncos. Both of these teams are 5-3 so far this season, but their paths to victory are very different. The Ravens lead the league in points scored this season with 242 points, while the Broncos have the third-best defensive record with just 15 points scored. The combination of Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson has been unstoppable for the Ravens, but their defense has not been able to keep up with their offensive efficiency. Baltimore had one of the best defenses in the last decade but was further strengthened by Jameis Winston and the Cleveland Browns. The Broncos’ offense is unlikely to put up any points against Baltimore, but they will be enough to stay within single digits on the leaderboard. Bo Nix seemingly gets better with every extra NFL move, and there’s no denying the Broncos deserve to be in the AFC playoff picture. All things considered, that’s a pretty generous spread for the Broncos. Denver will be able to take advantage of Baltimore’s defensive woes while closing the door on Henry and Jackson.

Pick: Denver Broncos (+9)

Game 2: Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals

Opening Line: Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)

The Bengals fell to 3-5 following their Week 8 loss to the Eagles, meaning they likely need to go 7-2 in their last 9 games to make the postseason. It’s a home game against the Raiders, a game they can’t afford to lose, and they’ll send a big win message to the league. Joe Burrow has been consistent offensively this season, and the Raiders don’t have the weapons needed to punish the Bengals defensively. Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase will undoubtedly put up 25-plus points against the Raiders, but we can’t count on Gardner Minshew to turn it the other way. Las Vegas kept it within 7 points against the Chiefs last week, but that was at home against a division rival. The Raiders will have much less success against a desperate Bengals team that can’t let this thing stay close. This gap is likely to reach double digits before kick-off, making this a crucial one that needs to be locked in as soon as possible.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)

Game 3: Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles

Opening Line: Philadelphia Eagles (-7)

The Jaguars fell to 2-6 with their Week 8 loss to the Packers, meaning they need to have a near-perfect performance to clinch a postseason berth. A road game against the 5-2 Eagles is no easy task, but the Jaguars have enough in Philadelphia to keep it respectable. Jacksonville may not be winning many games, but 4 of 6 of their losses this season have been by 5 points or less. They’ve routinely managed to play teams tight, and the Eagles don’t have the ruthlessness needed to pull away in the standings. Jalen Hurts is a shadow of his former self, and it’s hard to see them repeating the loss they suffered against the Bengals last week. A +7 point spread is a huge number for the NFL, and that mark won’t grow any further until Sunday afternoon.

Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (+7)

Season Record: 11-9-1

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