While a large portion of the country’s budget is allocated to children’s education, health and safety, it is surprising that relatively little resources are devoted to increasing the birth rate.

• Written by: Courtney Donovan Smith Writer/Staff Columnist

Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an (將萬安) last week told residents to avoid wearing scary Halloween costumes on the MRT to avoid alarming other passengers. So much for my plan of visiting Taipei, I thought, dressed as the National Development Council (NDC) biennial population report “Republic of China (Taiwan) Population Projections: 2024-2070” released last week.

Terms like “low birth rate” and “demographic decline” are not enough; The report is nothing short of a demographic disaster. However, it is a solvable problem in Taiwan, as in other countries. It just requires a change in mindset.

As it stands, there were only around 900,000 children aged zero to four at the end of 2022, while there were around 2.2 million aged 40 to 44.

Photo: Lin Cheng-kung, Taipei Times

According to data from the Household Registration Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the total fertility rate of women aged 15-49 was 0.865 percent last year. The replacement ratio is generally considered to be 2.1.

The NDC’s report estimates that there will be a shortage of approximately 350,000 people in the workforce by 2028, with this number expected to rise to 480,000 by 2030.

UH-OH NUMBERS

Photo courtesy of Kaohsiung Education Bureau

The NDC’s report gave low, medium, and high estimates for Taiwan’s 2070 population; the intermediate projection assumed the fertility rate was 1.0, higher than last year’s estimate of just 0.865. Using the lower rate estimates of 0.8, they predict the population will fall to 14.37 million; this is a staggering 40 percent drop from Taiwan’s peak population of 23.6 million in 2019.

These figures are wrong, of course. These do not include the number of foreigners in Taiwan, which will soon exceed one million; so-called “migrant workers” alone surpassed 800,000 last month. If foreign-born spouses are counted, the number of foreign-born persons in Taiwan is probably close to 1.5 million.

If we continue on the path we are on, much of the culture will disappear with no one to carry on, preserve and maintain the traditions; This is already an ongoing pattern. As there are fewer people to sustain our current and future society and economy, many things will disappear, be forced to radically change, or become automated.

THE CONFLICT BETWEEN BIOLOGY, MORALITY AND CAPITALISM

The causes of demographic catastrophe arise from conflicts between human biology, human morality, and free market capitalism. Given everything stacked against having children today, the birth of any child is a triumph of human biology.

Free market capitalism has transformed human societies and produced enormous wealth and comfort, at least for our species.

While it is very likely that a new economic model is on the horizon as technology increases exponentially and the number of people decreases, for now capitalism remains the most efficient and practical system for much of the economy.

The key word here is “most”. Capitalism is a system, and like every system, it doesn’t care about us one way or another. It’s great to produce widgets efficiently and ship them all over the world, but you don’t care if the widget is toxic to people, so limitations and regulations have been put in place for how capitalism works.

Similarly, we have made children economically expensive for humanitarian moral reasons. While businesses can and do invest in projects that will pay off in the long run, slavery, child labor, or giving our children brand names and logos tattooed on them, such as race cars, are unacceptable to modern people.

Children are increasingly becoming very expensive pets for the rich. With sperm counts plummeting due to pollution and junk food, fewer and fewer people have the money, time or ability to procreate. As real estate and rental prices continue to rise, it is becoming harder to find space to fit even these little people in increasingly smaller homes.

CURRENT PRIORITIES MAKE NO MEANING

So far, most countries have tried to deal with this problem through a mix of incentives, tax breaks, subsidies, and changes in laws to make it easier to house children. At best these only served to slow the decline.

What is surprising is the lack of public debate on this issue. If society really wants to reverse this trend, it can probably do so if the will is there.

There are cases to be made that population decline is a good thing. Presumably fewer people will use fewer resources and place less burden on the planet, while others may pin their hopes on a society transformed by technology, leading to a singularity where no one needs to work and traditional capitalism is no longer necessary. A lack of consumers in the future is not necessary. Most people alive today can remember a time when there was no internet access; It is certain that at some similar point in the future things will be much more radically different.

If there is a consensus that increasing the birth rate is a societal benefit and will remain an economic bonus in the long run, this should be prioritized. It needs to be thought of in terms of the percentage of GDP allocated to it, as we do with defence, health and education.

Most societies have already agreed that, despite the expense, the long-term benefits of children’s education to society and the economy are a net benefit. This year, the national budget allocated to education, culture and technology was the second largest input, at NT$561.2 billion (US$17.5 billion), or 19.5 percent of the entire budget.

Taiwan is likely to spend at least 4 percent of GDP on education when local government spending and parental spending are included. In their report to the legislature, they said the NDC was working to optimize relevant programs but would need an estimated budget of NT$50 billion (US$1.56 billion) to be effective.

Taiwan spends less than 10 percent of the money it spends on educating children on children’s existence; Never mind the amount spent on their healthcare, their security, and the military to protect them from invasion. This doesn’t make any sense.

REACHING A COMPROMISE

If society agrees that this should be a priority and worth the additional costs, it will be necessary to consider how to implement it. As a free society, of course, nothing should be forced, but it should be perfectly easy for parents to bear and raise children if they wish, and most should be given the opportunity.

Discussions will need to be held about whether cash payments should be equal to a decent salary and cover the cost of caring for children, or whether everything parents need should be provided free of charge and whether laws should be changed to ensure that they are at least given enough time. a parent to care for a child or children. The advantage of the former is simplicity and flexibility, but it opens up the possibility of people having children for money rather than love.

The second option is extremely complex and will require significant bureaucracy to manage, increasing costs and reducing the time parents spend on endless paperwork. Perhaps a combination of the two would be the way to go, but ideally whatever method of implementation is agreed upon would be determined by rigorous public debate with the participation of experts and women.

That’s assuming society decides to make this a priority, which so far it hasn’t.

This alone will probably improve the situation significantly, but it probably won’t be enough to turn things around completely. Other ideas could help, such as encouraging immigration and offering birth citizenship that could be extended to parents, similar to what is done in the United States.

Donovan’s Deep Dives is a regular column by Courtney Donovan Smith (石東文), who writes in-depth analysis on all things Taiwan’s political scene and geopolitics. Donovan is also the Taiwan headquarters correspondent for ICRT FM100 Radio News, co-publisher of Compass Magazine, co-founder of Taiwan Report (report.tw), and former president of the Taichung American Chamber of Commerce. Follow him on X: @donovan_smith.