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Could Republicans lose the House? Five US congressional races to watch | US Election 2024 News
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Could Republicans lose the House? Five US congressional races to watch | US Election 2024 News

With the general election in the United States just days away, the tight presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump may seem to be stealing all the attention.

However, on election day, November 5, there will be important struggles for both houses of Congress (Senate and House of Representatives).

But unlike the Senate, where only a third of the seats are up for grabs, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be voted on this election cycle.

Races will be spread across every corner of the United States. After all, the House assigns each state a certain number of seats based on its population size, and each seat has a specific district it will represent within the state.

Every two years the House faces the possibility of a shake-up, with all its members re-elected.

And this year, the Republican Party is on the defensive, hoping to maintain its majority in the legislature.

Republicans currently hold 220 seats while Democrats hold 212 seats. At stake is the power to pass or block new legislation. But the House is also endowed with special abilities: Only the lower house of Congress can draft revenue bills and impeach federal officials.

Experts have determined that 34 seats in the House of Representatives are vulnerable to swing partying this November. What are some of the tightest races to watch? Discover five of the nail-biters below.

Anthony D'Esposito points and speaks into a microphone adorned with a Trump-Vance sign.
Representative Anthony D’Esposito is trying to fend off Laura Gillen’s second attempt to unseat him (Brendan McDermid/Reuters)

New York’s 4th district

New York state has long been a Democratic stronghold.

But as you zoom in on the state, the electoral map becomes a mix of red and blue districts. Nowhere is this more evident than on Long Island, a political battleground that juts into the Atlantic Ocean.

Long Island is home to some of New York’s most competitive House races, including the 4th congressional district fight.

The area has a suburban, laid-back vibe, despite being minutes away from the urban bustle of Manhattan. It also stands out as one of the wealthiest areas in New York.

Both Democrats and Republicans have won the district in recent years. For example, in the 2020 presidential race, Joe Biden won the 4th district by 15 percentage points, and fellow Democrat Kathleen Rice easily defended her seat for the final term in the House of Representatives.

However, two years later a new House election was held and the seat fell to the Republicans.

Now incumbent Republican Anthony D’Esposito faces a rematch with his opponent in that race, Democrat Laura Gillen.

D’Esposito is a former New York Police detective with what he calls a record of common sense. She accused Gillen of being lax on crime and immigration, but also faced criticism for allegedly giving her lover a part-time job on the government payroll.

Gillen, meanwhile, said he would push for more law enforcement and border security. “I will work with anyone from any party to secure our southern border,” he says in a campaign ad.

The rivalry between Gillen and D’Esposito goes back years: During his time as Hempstead town supervisor, Gillen clashed with the town board, of which D’Esposito was a member.

Don Davis high-fives Kamala Harris while meeting outdoors in Greenville, North Carolina
Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris greets incumbent Rep. Don Davis in Greenville, North Carolina, on October 13 (Jonathan Drake/Reuters)

North Carolina’s 1st district:

North Carolina is the newest swing state this election cycle; Democrats and Republicans are nearly tied in statewide polls. Experts think that if the votes are in her favor, Harris could become the first Democratic presidential candidate to claim the state since 2008.

But a prominent corner of North Carolina is also ready for a change.

This would be the 1st congressional district located in northeastern North Carolina, bordering Virginia.

There, incumbent Democrat Don Davis faces a tough challenge in a contest that raises questions about race and redistricting.

The 1st congressional district has long been considered part of the “Black Belt” of the U.S. South; this is a set of areas where the number of Black residents exceeds or equals the number of white residents. About 40 percent of area residents are Black.

The district last elected a Republican in 1883. Since the 1990s, its representatives have all been Black. However, both of these series may end on November 5th.

The district was one of four districts subject to a lawsuit in December 2023, when voting rights activists claimed district lines were redrawn to dilute the power of Black voters.

District 1’s new boundaries shaped some Black neighborhoods and included other areas that were largely white.

Ultimately, the case was rejected. But the map could still play a role in who wins. There are currently seven Democrats and seven Republicans from North Carolina in Congress.

Davis, an Air Force graduate, is in a tight race against retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout, who is new to politics. But Davis is known for going against his own party, voting with Republicans on multiple occasions.

Mike Garcia stands outside and points behind the podium as he speaks.
Rep. Mike Garcia serves a district that includes parts of northern Los Angeles (J Scott Applewhite/AP Photo)

California’s 27th district:

Earlier this month, Republican presidential candidate Trump made an interesting choice.

He traveled to California’s Coachella Valley to hold a rally in the critical final weeks of the election. This seemed like a counterintuitive move: After all, isn’t California a solid blue state that has long been in Democratic hands?

Despite its reputation as a liberal stronghold, the state may hold the key to controlling the House of Representatives, and both parties are pouring millions of dollars into district-level campaigns there.

One of the hottest prizes is California’s 27th district, located on the northern border of Los Angeles.

During the 2020 presidential race, District 27 was one of five districts in California that elected a Republican as representative but also supported Democrat Joe Biden for president.

That makes him vulnerable to switching parties in this year’s House race. Incumbent Republican Mike Garcia, a former fighter pilot who has held the seat since 2020, is preparing for a fight for his political life.

He is facing businessman George Whitesides, who served as NASA chief of staff under former President Barack Obama.

Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez looks at her podium as she prepares to debate with opponent Joe Kent
Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez faces Republican challenger Joe Kent in the Oct. 7 debate (Jenny Kane/AP Photo)

Washington’s 3rd district:

Rematch, here we come.

Along Washington state’s mountainous coastline, on the border with Oregon, lies the 3rd congressional district, another sore spot in this year’s House battle.

The race here reunites two rivals from the last election cycle: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Joe Kent.

In 2022, Democrat Gluesenkamp Perez defeated Republican Kent in a close race, 50.1 percent to 49.3 percent. This was one of the closest margins of victory for a House race in the country.

Now they are facing off once again, with both sides presenting themselves as moderates to voters.

Gluesenkamp Perez, a member of the centrist Blue Dog Coalition, has frequently aligned herself with Republicans, including voting against student loan forgiveness and short-term government funding.

The publication Politico described him as someone who defies categorization: describing him as a “blue-collar, Bible-quoting, Israel-supporting, pro-choice, millennial Latino.”

Gluesenkamp Perez describes his ranking on his website as “most are bipartisan Congressman from Washington state.”

However, although Kent is seen as far-right, he is also trying to appeal to voters in the middle.

Kent is a retired Green Beret and Central Intelligence Agency field officer as well as a former foreign policy adviser to Trump. Still, he pledged to work with Democrats as well as Republicans at a debate earlier this month.

“I am very happy to work with anyone who truly wants to secure our borders, stop fentanyl, deport illegals coming into our country, and balance the budget,” he said.

Mary Peltola shakes hands with a voter.
Rep. Mary Peltola shakes hands at a campaign event in Juneau, Alaska, on Aug. 3 (Becky Bohrer/AP Photo)

General area of ​​Alaska:

Alaska’s population is so small that it is admitted to only one representative in the House of Representatives.

This means the entire state is one giant congressional district; The largest of all regions in the United States.

In the last election cycle in 2022, candidate Mary Peltola made history. Not only was he the first Alaska Native elected to the House of Representatives, he was also the first Democrat to represent the greater Alaska region since 1972.

To win the seat, he defeated two Republican challengers, one of whom was former governor and vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin.

However, the second of these two contestants is preparing for another showdown. Nick Begich III returned to racing in 2024, hoping to surpass Peltola.

Begich, the founder of a software development firm, is part of a political dynasty in Alaska. His grandfather was the late Nick Begich Sr., the last Democrat to hold an at-large seat in the House before Peltola.

But Alaska’s unique voting system could add another challenger to the race.

Alaska has been one of two states using this process since 2022. ranked choice voting for statewide elections. According to the rules, a maximum of four candidates can compete in the general elections. If no one wins an absolute majority in the first round of voting, a second round is held with only the top two candidates participating.

This system allowed Democrat Eric Hafner to enter the race: Hafner captured one of the four seats after other candidates dropped out of the race. Hafner is currently serving five years of a 20-year sentence in a New Jersey prison and has never set foot in Alaska before.

But the state Democratic Party was unable to remove him from the ballot box, even after filing a lawsuit.