of israel multi-wave attack The attack on various Iranian military bases on Friday was no surprise. Tehran from now on Around 200 ballistic missiles were launched He turned to Israel in retaliation for Israel’s assassinations of Hamas Politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh. Hezbollah leader Hassan NasrallahIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was preparing a response. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant was emphatic: “Our attack will be deadly, precise and, above all, surprising. They won’t understand what happened or how it happened. They will see the results.”

Therefore the question was not: if Israel will take military action against Iran; but rather when and how. We have the answer: a relatively limited aerial operation in the middle of the night. According to information obtained, at least 100 Israeli aircraft participated in the operation. Iran carried out three bomb attacks on military facilities in at least three provinces. S-300 air defense system to Imam Khomeini International Airport decommissioned; missile production facilities were also hit; Iran reported 4 soldiers dead. The entire mission took several hours.

Despite this, Iranian, Israeli, Arab and US officials still face many questions, none of which are fully resolved.

First of all, is this the end of the conflict between Israel and Iran? The Biden administration is certainly hoping for that. Hours after the Israelis completed their attack, a senior US administration official made the point From Washington’s perspective, this should be the end of the story. Of course, the United States said much the same thing in April, when Iran and Israel first opened fire. The pause lasted six months, with a second tour occurring only in October. The United States may be the most powerful country on the planet, but it cannot control, let alone dictate, states in the region; especially when one of these states, Israel, is fully invested in weakening the region using its superior conventional power. Iran’s proxy militia network in the region. The longer Israel continues to wage this campaign, the weaker Iran’s deterrent will become and the more likely it is that the Iranian government will feel obliged to save what’s left. As long as the wars in Gaza and Lebanon continue, new fights between Israel and Iran are possible.

Next question: Is it time for the United States to get a little tougher on Netanyahu’s government? For many regional analysts, Democrats, and general observers, the answer is a resounding yes, given the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza (and now Lebanon). The situation in northern Gaza has deteriorated so much that, for example, US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III. sent a letter They suggested to their Israeli counterparts that it was possible that US military aid would be cut off if more aid trucks did not reach the Palestinian people there.

Still, the Biden administration has mostly stuck to its bear hug approach; While Biden is clearly uncomfortable with Netanyahu’s war and negotiation strategy, he has repeatedly ruled out overtly punitive actions that could force Netanyahu to abandon his maximalist demands. .

The fact that it took Israel almost a month to respond to Tehran’s Oct. 1 missile attack is an indication that some honest but tough conversations were taking place behind the scenes between U.S. and Israeli officials. Biden stated that Washington had made this clear before. does not support Israel attacks Iran’s energy or nuclear facilities; firstly, because it would increase oil prices during the election year, and secondly, because such an action could push Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to decide to weaponize Tehran’s nuclear program.

Netanyahu has made a habit of ignoring Washington’s advice on the wars in Gaza and Lebanon; One of the most notorious examples was the Israeli prime minister. Rejects US-backed cuts–fire plan Shortly after opening in Lebanon. But he appears to have taken Biden’s concerns about Iran seriously.

The exclusion of oil infrastructure, centrifuge facilities and nuclear research facilities from the target list was a welcome relief for the Biden administration, whose overall goal over the past year has been to prevent the war in Gaza from snowballing into a regional conflagration. It is difficult to say whether Netanyahu refrained from doing this because he was worried about how the Iranians would react or because he was afraid of how the Americans would react. But the White House may have come to the belated conclusion that unconditionality has not worked to lead to the regional de-escalation it ostensibly seeks.

Third and finally, will Iran respond? Weeks ago, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was warning Israel said any attack on Iranian territory would lead to even stronger retaliation. The general reaction to Israel’s attacks on Iranian state media today is not encouraging. There is a concerted effort to downplay the size of the Israeli operation, either to spare itself the embarrassment of admitting that major military bases have been damaged or to provide the leadership in Tehran with an opportunity to de-escalate tensions. Khamenei may be a bigot, but he is also not stupid; He recognizes that Israel has the upper hand in escalation, and that a direct war with Israel — which could involve the United States — is not a wise strategy at a time when Iran’s economy is already struggling.

While the risk of escalation must always be considered, Israel’s operation against Iran is designed to thread the needle: Do enough to make the Iranians respect Israel’s military might, but not enough to force Iran to retaliate with another wave of attacks. At this early stage, these two goals appear to have been achieved.

DePetris is a member of Defense Priorities.