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    • How could Trump’s plans for Ukraine confuse Europe?
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    How could Trump’s plans for Ukraine confuse Europe?

    Harry Posted on

    For Donald Trump, ending the war in Ukraine is at the top of his foreign policy agenda. It would probably leave European leaders out of the equation. A brief look at a possible future scenario

    Dependent on an older brother: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will meet with US presidential candidate Donald Trump in New York on September 27.

    Dependent on an older brother: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will meet with US presidential candidate Donald Trump in New York on September 27.

    Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP

    Donald Trump has a comprehensive agenda. Foreign policy is just one of many points. And at the top of the list is not China or the Middle East, but Europe and the war in Ukraine.

    The former president, who seems to have a high chance of re-election on November 5, draws attention to two important points. First, he claims that Russia attacked Ukraine only because Biden was a weak president whom Moscow cared little about. The latter claims that it can end the war “within 24 hours” by reaching an agreement between the two warring parties.

    He did not specify what such a deal might entail, but it is widely assumed that it would pressure Ukraine to give up territory in the east currently occupied by Russia – lands for peace.

    Trump is an anti-war president. In February 2020, his team reached a deal with the Taliban in Doha to end America’s prolonged military involvement in Afghanistan; This was a goal Obama pursued but failed to achieve.

    Biden essentially adopted Trump’s withdrawal plans for Afghanistan, even though it was foreseeable that the US-backed government would collapse, allowing the Taliban to take over.

    Economic logic

    For business owner and entertainer Trump, international order is driven by economic logic rather than military might.

    According to Trump, the world is divided between strong states with strong leaders and weak states. The weak must subjugate themselves, the strong must pay tribute, and the strong must do as they please. Countries, like companies, regulate their interests through agreements.

    According to Trump, Biden is a weak leader, while names like Putin, Xi or North Korea’s Kim Jong Un are strong; Valuable partners for negotiations that balance economic and political interests, define spheres of influence and avoid conflicts.

    During a televised debate in September, Trump told Kamala Harris that if elected, he would end the war in Ukraine before taking office. “What I’m going to do is I’m going to talk to one, I’m going to talk to the other, I’m going to bring them together,” he claimed. He said he knows Zelenskyy and Putin well and has good relations with both of them. He claims they respect him but not Biden.

    First step: Ankara

    If Trump wins, he could quickly act on these ideas. The following scenario is conceivable: Trump calls Putin and Zelenskyy and invites them to Turkey for a “peace conference”.

    Putin would come to Ankara mainly because he was confident that his demands would be met: a free hand to further consolidate control over the occupied Ukrainian territory, as well as conditions that would permanently weaken Ukraine and block the path to future NATO membership.

    Zelenskyy had little choice. The continuation of the war, the future security of his country, and the economic means of reconstruction depend entirely on Washington. While Europeans have made significant contributions to Ukraine’s support, they are more than willing to cede leadership in Ukraine and Russia to the United States.

    What will this scenario look like in practice?

    In short, the agreement would be signed quickly. Possibly terms could include a ceasefire plus a “security agreement”; This is thinly veiled language for an arrangement that would deprive Ukraine of a path to NATO or similar, concrete security guarantees from the West, such as rearmament support and Western presence. troops in devastated Ukraine.

    Zelenskyy would sign because Trump would give him a simple choice: Sign the document or give up all aid.

    Second step: France

    Trump’s next stop is Paris. He wants the French president, who is trying to rebuild relations with Trump, to hold a briefing with the British prime minister and the German chancellor.

    After his arrival, Trump announced that he brought “peace” to Ukraine. He says that Europeans will now bear the lion’s share of support for Ukraine. After all, Europe’s security is at stake. America did its part.

    At the same time, Trump calls on the German chancellor to increase the German defense budget to 3% of gross domestic product, but the chancellor rejects the request. In the speech, Trump also hinted that he could exempt Europeans from major new taxes if they do business with him in other areas.

    After several hours of meeting in which the Europeans can barely talk, the American president leaves Paris. In his home country, he is celebrated as a peacemaker by Republicans in Congress.

    The result of the mission? The strategy that the West has been following for almost three years and designed by Biden’s team in the White House has now collapsed. Ukraine is not close to a strong position.

    In this scenario, Ukraine’s future is bleak. The security environment is inadequate for Ukrainian refugees to return or attract foreign investment. A major controversy is brewing in Ukraine between Zelenskyy’s camp and his critics. The country is divided. New elections are being called. Russia would later make Ukraine the target of a major hybrid campaign.

    Europe’s role will come in the third step

    European leaders would be deeply frustrated that they would be excluded from negotiations on an issue so central to their security future. In this scenario, Poland, the Baltic states and the Scandinavians are in shock but trying to make the best of a bad situation and maintain their security interests in a radically changing geopolitical climate.

    After the first wave of disappointment, a growing number of voices see the crisis as an opportunity. Warsaw, for example, states that there is a chance to stabilize the rest of Ukraine with the end of the war.

    Poland advocates sending its own troops, along with a coalition of the willing, to secure the new and extremely fragile status quo in Ukraine. Macron, along with the British, is open to this idea.

    But the German chancellor leads a cautious camp, seeing this as a dangerous provocation that could destabilize the tenuous new peace. The most important thing now, skeptics say, is to offer Russia an olive branch to Moscow, rewarding it for ending the war and trying to restore relations.

    The Polish initiative is unlikely to win a solid majority, particularly as southern Europeans are likely to remain cautious. Instead, an agreement was reached to support Ukraine with increased arms deliveries and financial aid.

    It is likely that Russia will comply with the ceasefire agreements, at least initially. Moscow will want to wait and see whether Ukraine will collapse on its own and fall into Russia’s arms. At the same time, large investments in the Russian armed forces will continue, as well as preparations for the next round of hostilities.

    Such a scenario would present Europeans with enormous challenges. Core security interests would be discussed at the table without them. For now, European leaders’ only hope is that Trump won’t be elected, or that if he is elected, he’ll follow a different path.

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    Harry
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