In response to Iran’s missile attacks on Israel on October 1, allegedly in revenge for the killings of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, 25 days later Tel Aviv delivered its much-anticipated, albeit diluted and justified, retaliation and attacked many Iranians. military facilities and the killing of four soldiers. Both sides claimed to refrain from attacking civilians.

They wanted to convey the message that their dedication and commitment to MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) Syndrome was very much alive and kicking. Both the people and the leadership were optimistic about hitting the other, but somehow sanity prevailed. Hopefully, the two sides will remain united as they were last April and prevent further escalation, which would certainly be an extremely dangerous and self-defeating proposition.

Although not fun, it is akin to a game of Kabaddi between Tehran and Tel Aviv, as the West Asia region is on a powder keg of volatility. Those familiar with the game will remember, and Britannica describes it this way: “Individual players take turns moving to the other team’s side and repeating ‘kabaddi, kabaddi’ (or an alternative chant); Points are earned by tagging as many opponents as possible before they are caught or returned to their home territory. Oddly, both heroes are fond of tit-for-tat, at least for now, even if it could go nuclear. While Israel engages in cleansing and insensitive bombing activities in both the north and south, causing great harm to unfortunate civilians, the world waits in vain for a step towards de-escalating tensions in Gaza and Lebanon.

It has long been expected that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would repay Tehran with the same amount of money, and perhaps more hit-coins and even cybercurrencies, as his benefactor, the United States, and unhappy lame-duck President Joe Biden insist. Israel’s retaliation should have avoided Iran’s nuclear and oil installations and facilities; This would surely plunge the region into complete despair and destruction, and no obstacles would prevent escalation, which no one actually wanted. Only diplomacy and common sense can prevent this, although the international community and multilateral institutions have probably never appeared more ineffective.

Observers often speculated that after Haniyeh was killed in Tehran, soon after the somewhat moderate new Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian was sworn in, the Iranians were persuaded not to react because a deal in Gaza was on the horizon. However, the expansion of Israel’s military operation in southern Lebanon and the killing of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah and his top commanders forced the Ayatollah to take some steps to prevent his credibility among his other proxies and citizens from being completely damaged. Therefore, they launched more than 180 missiles, probably giving Tel Aviv advance warning.

Likewise, it was clear that Israel would react, and it did, but it reacted, albeit limitedly, by focusing on its military and missile facilities, just as Iran did in a four-hour operation with 100 warplanes. Both sides claimed precision strikes even as they tested their air defense systems against the S300/400 up to the Iron Dome. The US also ranked its F-16 fleet as allowing the THAAD system to protect Israel. Tehran, of course, accused the United States of cover-up and complicity. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said, “The Americans have provided an air corridor to the Zionist air forces, and the defensive equipment they have sent to them is considered a form of interference in recent operations, and the involvement of the United States is completely clear.”

Israel stated that its retaliation was completed in response to the October 1 attacks and warned Iran against further attacks. Tehran reserved the right to respond. We hope this conflict will be a replica of the April saga, where both sides reacted and reined in. This is actually a balance of power projection.

Meanwhile, the new Iranian government has redoubled its diplomatic initiatives in the region and beyond, starting with Pezeshkian’s meeting with Gulf Cooperation Council leaders in Doha. They promised not to escalate tensions, but received assurances that partner countries would not allow Israel or the United States to attack Iran from their airspace or territory, lest they be seen as accomplices, which would lead to repercussions of their own. Since no one in the region and the Arab world could afford an all-out war, they all conveyed this to the Americans, who have numerous bases in the region, the largest of which is Al Dafna in Qatar. Qatar and Iran have close ties, including the joint exploration of the largest gas field since China’s mediation between Riyadh and Tehran, while most others pursue their own rapprochement.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Jordan and other Arab countries condemned the Israeli attacks and called for restraint while calling them a violation of international law and sovereignty. Qatar’s foreign minister called his Iranian counterpart Araghchi (October 26) and expressed his greatest concerns about the dire consequences of this escalation, emphasizing that it is important for all parties to exercise restraint and avoid anything that would destabilize stability and security in the region. Jordan, which has a peace agreement with Israel and also hosts a US military base, condemned Israel’s air strikes on Iranian territory in violation of international law, saying that this attack was a violation of Iran’s sovereignty and a dangerous escalation that further increased tensions in Iran. He said it was. area.

Iran’s foreign minister had met with his Jordanian counterpart just a few days earlier and had met with King Abdulhamid II. Abdullah was consulting with all leaders in the region on this issue. Iraq closed its airspace. Egypt expressed serious concerns, emphasizing its position that a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip should be reached quickly within the framework of an agreement providing for the release of hostages, given that this is the only way to reduce tensions. Antony Blinken is trying to find a way to get ceasefire discussions back on the table. The Russians have also been very active in mediating a ceasefire, with their delegations meeting with both sides.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant claimed that Iran can no longer effectively use its proxy forces, Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in Lebanon, against Israel. “Over the past year, the security establishment led by the Israel Defense Forces has turned the tide of the war and achieved unprecedented successes in all areas of warfare.” Perhaps internationally and diplomatically, Israel has lost much more than it has gained on the ground.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi had also met President Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in Kazan. They exchanged views on regional developments, including the situation in West Asia. The Prime Minister expressed deep concern over the expansion of the conflict and reiterated India’s call for de-escalation. Modi also emphasized the protection of civilians and the role of diplomacy in resolving the conflict. On October 26, the State Department expressed deep concern about rising tensions in West Asia and its consequences for peace and stability in the region and beyond. “We reiterate our call to all concerned to exercise restraint and return to the path of dialogue and diplomacy. Continuing hostilities even while innocent hostages and civilians continue to suffer is in no one’s interest.” India is also concerned about the well-being of its 9.5 million citizens in the region.

Whether we can expect a draw in this Kabaddi match is another thing.

The writer is a former Indian Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta and is currently a Distinguished Fellow of the Vivekananda International Foundation. The views expressed in the article above are personal and belong solely to the author. These do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.