The MLB offseason is in full swing with free agency and the Rule 5 draft, so I felt it was time to take stock of what happened in 2024 and see what lessons we can learn for 2025. To do this, we will go location by location to examine the landscape and help find the best value areas.

Similar to last year, when I write my Troop Status for each positionI’ll look at the value produced by regular starters at each position in 2024 to see where the most value comes from each position and identify areas of strength we can target in our drafts and areas of weakness we can try. and avoid. Last year most of my analysis was based on the impact of the new rule changes, so this year we’ll just look at the overall situation and see how much has been carried over.

Contents

• 2024 Player Rater Review
• 2024 Roto Category Review
• Key Takeaways
• off-season stories
• My top 15 rankings for the 2025 position

We’ll start with the first basic. To get a quick understanding of the position, I looked at how many first basemen were making $10 worth, according to Fangraphs Player Evaluator.

Looking at the players dropped from the list, it seems that age and, luckily, the 2023 season plays a significant role here. Paul Goldschmidt and Justin Turner produced double-digit value in 2023, but were unable to do so in 2024 as they neared the end of their careers. Yandy Diaz, Spencer Torkelson and Isaac Paredes fell off the list after strong seasons in 2023, meaning recurring first basemen are: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Salvador Perez, Bryce Harper, Josh Naylor, Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson , Cody Bellinger and Christian Walker. You’ll see these eight names a lot throughout the rest of this article.

Category Distribution

Now we will see how much value the first base position provides in each standard category in the Roto 5×5 league. I sorted by players with 300 plate appearances and looked to see if there was any meaningful change in the standard 5×5 offensive categories (batting average, home run, runs, RBI and steals). I did this last year for 2022 and 2023, so we’ll compare those numbers and then go into WHAT changed, WHY it might have happened, and HOW that should impact our 2025 draft plan.

Average

Right from the start, we see a statistic where the first base production falls from 2023 onwards. You generally don’t trust your first baseman to carry your team’s batting average, so the slight drop isn’t too much of a concern. The league average for first basemen in 2024 was .244, which was better than the league average for second basemen, third basemen and outfielders. The average of the top 15 first basemen, the players we would start from that position across most league types, was .256, so you should be able to find a first baseman in any league type that wins. Even if there is a slight decrease from previous years, it will not decrease your batting average.

Home Run

Another statistic where we see a slight decline from 2023. Again, although it is not a huge decrease, it is a significant decrease because the league-wide power decreased in 2024. In 2023, two first basemen hit 40-plus home runs and four hit 30 or 30. More. In 2024, no single baseman hit more than 35 home runs, but four hit 30. While this is still a position where you can get consistent power production, the number of players consistently putting out category-changing power appears to be decreasing.

In fact, the only players to hit at least 25 home runs in 2023 and 2024 were Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Christian Walker, Pete Alonso and Matt Olson. Jake Burger also did it in 2023, despite not qualifying in the first place, but that’s about it. Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt both combined for 22 home runs in 2024, meaning only five guys have produced consistent top-end power over the past two seasons.

Bottom line, if you’re drafting primarily for power, you want to grab one of these five bats, or accept that we’re probably drafting from a stack that will feature 17-25 home run hitters. So differentiating factors could be speed or team context.

RBI

Oh, hey, another stat that starting basemen produce less value in 2024 than in 2023. Alec Bohm, on the other hand, is a player who lost his first base eligibility but still has it.
Over 70 RBIs Jake Burger earned and exceeded eligibility, so those eligibility offset each other. The real culprit here may again be age. Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Abreu, Carlos Santana and Justin Turner surpassed that number in 2023 but did not repeat it in 2024. We also had career years where Spencer Torkelson, Yandy Diaz, Brandon Drury and Nathaniel Lowe were not duplicated in 2023. In 2024.

This is another statistic where top-end production didn’t hold up this year. The top ten basemen with the most RBIs in 2023 averaged 103.7 RBIs. The top ten basemen with the most RBIs in 2024 averaged 95. This is not an insignificant decline. We also had six repeat starters at the RBI position: Matt Olson, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Pete Alonso, Freddie Freeman, Christian Walker and Josh Naylor, but only Vlad Jr. from that group. and Naylor had more RBIs. In 2024.

runs

Now you see a trend. We don’t usually associate runs with first basemen, but most of them are usually in the top four of their team’s batting order, so they can certainly pile up runs if they get on base enough. That’s a big reason why Pete Alonso, Bryce Harper, Josh Naylor, Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson and Christian Walker are among the top ten in runs scored this year. All but Naylor and Harper, who were injured, did so in 2023.

Stolen Bases

Another category where you typically don’t expect productivity from your starting basemen, but where overall production is down in 2024. Even more interesting to me is that none of the players with more than 10 steals in 2024 are players. You probably want him to be your starting fantasy goalie in 2025. They were: Spencer Steer, Jake Bauers, Paul Goldschmidt, Luke Raley, Michael Toglia and Nolan Schanuel.

Of this group, only Steer is a top-10 lock in all fantasy baseball formats, but you probably use him at another position. Toglia has some power and plays at Coors Field, so the added speed is intriguing if he can hit higher than .220. Schanuel doesn’t have a ton of power, but he’s a solid contact hitter with a good on-base percentage, so he becomes more valuable in OBP leagues. Goldschmidt could still be valuable heading into his age-37 season, but you’d rather have him be your corner option, and where he plays in 2025 could determine his value.

Key Takeaways

The biggest takeaway for me is that the first phase seems heavier than what we’ve been used to in the past. By 2024, there was a widespread narrative that the position was truly deep and that you could wait and choose from a variety of options to draft your starting goalie. However, this did not yield results. Some of the popular targets, such as Triston Casas and Vinnie Pasquantino, were injured, and others, such as Spencer Torkelson and Yandy Diaz, were unable to maintain their production; However, no matter which way you look at it, it appears the same names continue to dominate the top of first base leaderboards and will likely do the same in 2025.

Now, unlike the other positions we will discuss, I do not believe there is a “cliff” in the first place. I think there are obvious high-end options, and then there’s a mixed bag with many solid options depending on the category you want to specifically target. There will be power options like Jake Burger or Rhys Hoskins and average value options like Luis Arraez and Yandy Diaz.

So what that tells me is that because I think the power is going to be very high, I might want to target one of the top first basemen who will probably produce top-end power value for me, and then I might pick a corner. An infield goal by someone from the big group coming from behind.

Off-Season Stories

• Where will Pete Alonso, Christian Walker and Paul Goldschmidt sign?
• Will the Blue Jays trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?
• Will the Red Sox trade Triston Casas?
• How healthy are Freddie Freeman and Christian Encarnacion-Strand entering the season?
• WILL changes to the left field wall in Baltimore (again) HELP Ryan Mountcastle?
• How much does Paul Goldschmidt have left?

Top 15 Rankings of 2025

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. -Toronto Blue Jays
2. Bryce Harper – Philadelphia Phillies
3. Freddie Freeman – Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Pete Alonso – Free Agent (unlikely to be affected by new team)
5. Matt Olson – Atlanta Braves
6. Josh Naylor – Cleveland Guards
7. Spencer Steer – Cincinnati Reds
8. Christian Walker – Free Agent (new team expected)
9. Salvador Perez – Kansas City Royals
10. Vinnie Pasquantino – Kansas City Royals
11. Luis Arraez-San Diego Padres (I’ll probably never use him as my 1B)
12. Cody Bellinger – Chicago Cubs
13. Jake Burger – Miami Marlins
14. Triston Casas – Boston Red Sox
15. Michael Busch – Chicago Cubs / Ryan Mountcastle – Baltimore Orioles