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This is called the “red mirage” or “transition to blue”.

This is a phenomenon that has emerged recently as the Republican lead that appeared immediately after the polls closed on election night was erased by the counting of mail-in votes later in the evening or in the days following Election Day.

Former President Donald Trump pointed to red mirages to support his baseless claims about election fraud; whereas this was actually a function of the rise of mail-in voting and the often strange rules for when those votes were counted.

On election night 2020, November 3, when most Americans go to bed, The final outcome was far from clear.

The conflict between then-President Trump and now-President Joe Biden was still too early to decide on key US states. Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine, Georgia And Pennsylvania.

The following days will include dramatic hours spent watching the vote count in these states. Until the early morning hours of November 6, the vote count in Georgia did not reflect Biden’s lead. CNN’s Phil Mattingly showed viewers the Magic WallSmall batches of votes were being counted and influencing upcoming elections.

CNN did it The project that Biden will win The election would be held four days after election day, that is, on November 7, but the counting would continue. One analyzes made by researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology It found that counties won by Biden were counted slower, on average, than counties won by Trump.

There was also a Switching to blue in 2016but it was not decisive. As CNN’s Marshall Cohen writes, Hillary Clinton was still trailing in the popular vote when she made a concession bid and admitted her loss to Americans the day after Election Day. While the vote leak wasn’t enough to get him into the White House, it was more than enough to give him a multimillion-vote advantage in the popular vote.

The states with the slowest counting in 2020 were: places like californiaVery Democratic and every registered voter A ballot is sent by post. This means that a blue shift in the popular vote could still occur, even if it does not delay the determination of the presidential election results.

It’s important to remember that while news networks like CNN can predict a winner once it’s clear who will win, races aren’t officially confirmed until later. Deadlines for certification vary from state to state, but they all have until Dec. 11, 2024, to complete recounts and resolve disputes if necessary. presidential results.

There are some indications that things may move faster in some key states.

New election law in Georgia means more people will vote vote early in person It can speed up the process of counting mail-in ballots. North Carolina no longer accepts mail-in ballots after Election Day.

Brennan Center for JusticeThere is a list of potential choke points that follow election-related laws.

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, Republican he recently said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” He said he expects the vast majority of votes to be processed and counted within hours after polls close.

“The results of all early votes and all early accepted votes will have to be announced by 20:00. That means 70, maybe even 75% of the total votes will be announced no later than 20:00 on election night,” he said. However, if the elections in Georgia are as close as they were in 2020, the result may still not be clear in 2024.

Raffensperger was asked if it would take a week to decide the winner in Georgia.

He said absolutely no. “We will wait for the overseas votes to come in by Friday at the latest, and these will be the final numbers then. And we will see whether this will make a difference in the total vote total.”

Other states, such as key battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, did not allow election officials to process any ballots before Election Day. But with more experience and fewer votes compared to the 2020 pandemic-era elections, counting could be faster in those places, too. Election Innovation and Research Center It has a summary of the various rules and timelines for processing mail-in ballots.

In Michigan, another key state where absentee ballots can be cast before Election Day, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson said Also asked by CBS About how long it will take for ballots to be counted. Benson, a Democrat, said he hopes to know the outcome by the end of Wednesday, Nov. 6. one day after the polls closed.

“We will always prioritize accuracy and safety over efficiency,” he said.

This process can still take days if margins are tight.

The top elections official in Pennsylvania is Republican Al Schmidt. he told NPR Recently, people need to trust the system in the period after the polls close.

“In 2020 … we saw the window of time between the polls closing at 8 p.m. on election night and the race being remembered as a period of fragility where people tried to undermine confidence in the results,” he said. Once all the votes were finally counted, the Pennsylvania results weren’t that close.

As anyone old enough to remember the year 2000 can attest, the next election may take time. A close election in Florida was paired with a flawed fist-ballot system that left some ballots open to dispute.

The outcome of that year’s elections took more than a month; 36 days until the U.S. Supreme Court halted a partial recount in Florida and awarded the election to George W. Bush. Then-Vice President Al Gore Accepted on December 13 And then I became one of the fair ones three vice presidents to oversee the counting of electoral votes in the event of their own defeat. Harris could be fourth. Or for the first time since George HW Bush control their own victories.

Just as no one knows who will win the 2024 election, it is not entirely clear how long it will take to determine this year’s winner.