close
close

Semainede4jours

Real-time news, timeless knowledge

Trump’s Truth Social emerges as meme stock darling
bigrus

Trump’s Truth Social emerges as meme stock darling

Donald Trump’s loss-making social media company has become a magnet for fast-moving day traders, competing with Elon Musk’s Tesla and chip maker Nvidia as politics moves up the agenda for retail investors.

Trump Media & Technology Group, which operates Truth Social, has been among the top three most traded stocks on the Interactive Broker platform over the past two weeks, along with two much larger companies.

The company, which takes its code DJT from the president-elect’s initials, remains a small figure despite frenetic trading, but its $6 billion equity valuation dwarfs the $2.6 million in revenue it has reported so far this year. The volatile stock has averaged around 7 percent daily volatility this year.

Tesla’sThe value of Musk’s electric car manufacturer company is approximately $1 trillion, while Nvidia’s value is $3.6 trillion. TMTG’s presence alongside such giants bears similarities to the 2021 meme stock frenzy, when valuations of companies popular with active traders, including retailer Gamestop and movie theater chain AMC, soared far beyond their business fundamentals, strategists said.

“It’s a hallmark of meme stocks to be right next to Nvidia and Tesla but a fraction of the size,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, an online platform with a broad base of active investors.

“When you see multiples of regular trading, it’s no longer about investing, it’s about trading pure and simple,” Sosnick added. “This is day trading—aggressive, highly active traders looking for opportunities in a high-volume, high-volatility situation.”

Almost 90 million shares on average TTMTG So far this month they have traded daily; This figure was less than 9 million per day in the six months from late March until the end of September, when the company started operating. Meanwhile, volume for original meme stock GameStop has fallen by nearly two-thirds since July.

High share turnover can lead to dramatic price fluctuations. TMTG’s recent volumes are equivalent to nearly all of the shares not held by Trump or insiders. Tesla and Nvidia they typically see 1 percent to 3 percent of their public transactions on any given day.

Online broker Robinhood said TMTG was among the top 10 most traded companies this month, while figures from investment flow specialist Vanda Research showed continued net inflows into the company from small investors this week. vote.

“Retail investors were trading DJT along with pick rates and now that’s over, it’s become a hot potato game where they get in and out,” said Vanda’s Marco Iachini.

Retail traders on Reddit’s trading forums regularly compared DJT, as the stock is known, to GameStop, the brick-and-mortar video game store whose shares were popularized by retail investor Keith Gill on his social media account. nickname Roaring Kitty.

“I absolutely love DJT as a stock,” said UK-based Reddit user Ash Jatla, who bought and doubled his money after the shares started rising in September. But he distinguished between trading bets like DJT and investments that included Tesla.

“This is something different. I invested in Tesla because there is factual information supporting Tesla whether Trump wins or loses; “The company is good, good for long-term investment,” he added.

Since the election, TMTG’s shares have also fallen 17 percent; This is in stark contrast to other so-called Trump transactions that have performed well after Trump’s victory, including Tesla, bitcoin and the broader US stock market. All three rose, with Bitcoin hitting a record and Tesla rising 28 percent.

TMTG’s loss wiped out $1.3 billion from the company’s value and $670 million from Trump’s personal fortune. The company’s shares account for more than half of the president-elect’s $5.7 billion fortune, according to Bloomberg’s calculation; The rest consists of real estate, cash and golf facilities.

But the rally spurred by Tesla founder Elon Musk’s closeness to Trump has enriched the auto entrepreneur by more than $28 billion.

According to the filings, Trump holds 53 percent of TMTG shares. Beyond its shares, the company has touted its largely retail shareholder base as a sign of support for its goals.

Last Friday, the president-elect used Truth Social to blast what he called “fake, untrue and possibly illegal rumors” that he might sell TMTG shares; This was something he said he had no intention of doing.

Despite the growing attention of elections, Truth Social remains small in terms of reach; According to Similarweb, there were an average of 646,000 daily visits to the website this month, while Musk’s X platform had 155 million daily visits.

“I can’t imagine any real equity analysts bothering to look at this right now, it’s purely a trading tool at this point,” said Matthew Tuttle, a portfolio manager who runs thematic exchange-traded funds. “From a traditional valuation perspective, it’s probably worthless.”

Volatility in TMTG is so extreme that it has led Tuttle to postpone plans to launch a leveraged fund with boutique ETF provider Rex Shares that aims to deliver twice TMTG’s daily return or loss.

Leveraged ETFs are a favorite of short-term day investors looking to increase their returns. Tuttle still plans to launch the fund once stocks calm down.

Bets on the decline in TMTG’s shares remained roughly constant, with 17 million shares sold short (i.e. used in transactions aimed at profiting from a decline in the share price). The bets amount to almost 8 percent of the company’s shares.

Finding shares to borrow for short-term transactions has become more difficult due to the small number of large shareholders who are more likely to lend their assets.

“This market is driven by long sellers, not short sellers. “The ability to borrow equity is very slim,” said Matthew Unterman, managing director at financial data specialist S3 Partners. “There is a possibility of a short squeeze if the price rises, but so far short positions are holding the line.”