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What does the Republican ‘triad’ mean for Trump and his agenda? | US Election 2024 News
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What does the Republican ‘triad’ mean for Trump and his agenda? | US Election 2024 News

Washington, D.C. – It became official this week. The Republican Party not only won control of the United States Senate, but also maintained its lead over the House of Representatives after some of the last major races were called.

This puts the party and its champion, President-elect Donald Trump, in a strong position.

Come January, Republicans will hold a “tripartite caucus” that will control the presidency and both houses of Congress.

And experts say the trio could pave the way for sweeping changes with long-term repercussions.

“The level of opportunity that Donald Trump has right now is very high,” said Todd Belt, a professor at the George Washington University Graduate School of Political Management.

In many ways, this year’s trio mirrors the political landscape in 2016, when Trump won his first presidential bid: Republicans also won majorities in the House and Senate in that election.

But unlike the period after the 2016 election, when party disagreements thwarted some of Trump’s most ambitious agenda items, this time around Republicans are firmly united around Trump.

Trump, who launched his re-election campaign in 2022, also had years to gather support for his second term.

“Trump will be very, very strong,” Belt said. He noted not only the makeup of Congress but also the conservative majority on the Supreme Court and its recent decision granting broad immunity to presidents.

A ‘relatively weak’ trio

Gaining stronger control over the government has long been a priority for Trump. Since his first term in office from 2017 to 2021, Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire to make the executive branch stronger.

“As president, I have the right to do whatever I want,” Trump said at a conservative summit for young people in 2019.

Trump also chafed at the constraints of having to push his agenda through the legislature and deal with government bureaucracy. Even in his ads this year he promised to “throw away the sick political class”.

But the U.S. Constitution places limits on what different branches of government can do.

As president, Trump will have the power to impose tariffs, change the way immigration is enforced, and make sweeping changes to federal agencies and workers even without congressional approval.

Other parts of Trump’s agenda (especially regarding government funding or reversing existing legislation) can only be accomplished through Congress.

While the Republican trifecta appears to be a golden opportunity for Trump, the party’s slim margin of control in Congress could tarnish that shine, according to Elaine Kamarck, founding director of the Brookings Institution’s Center for Effective Public Administration.

After all, the Republican majority in the Senate holds only 53 out of 100 total seats.

On Wednesday, the party cleared the 218-seat threshold to retain control of the House of Representatives, but its majority is likely to be slim there too.

“The only time the trio stays bright is when the margins are very high,” Kamarck told Al Jazeera. “It’s a trio, but a relatively weak one, and Trump will need to be careful about making decisions and laying out (policy priorities) where he can be confident he can get majorities.”

The risk, according to Kamarck, is that extreme policy proposals could alienate some Republicans who may not fully support Trump’s “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) platform.

Even a few lost votes could prevent the bill from reaching the majority it needs to pass.

Kamarck said of Trump: “On issues like basic policy, tax cuts and tight control of the border, I’m sure he can achieve a lot.”

“But there will be other areas where he can get caught up in MAGA stuff, and that could be a lot harder.”

Party integrity?

Already Republicans are calling for harmony among party members. At a news conference Wednesday, House Speaker Mike Johnson encouraged his colleagues to “stand with this leadership team to move forward.”

“What you will hear over and over again from all of our members throughout the conference is that we are united, we are energized, and we are ready to go,” Johnson said. “We must serve the American people from day one.”

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise echoed that sentiment in a letter to party members soon after the election.

According to the letter obtained by PunchBowl News, Trump wrote that he had been meeting with his team for months “to be ready to jump-start this work and be ready to work on the first of January.”

“In the next Congress, we will work closely with President Trump and Senate Republicans every step of the way to ensure success,” Scalise wrote.

Laura Blessing, a senior fellow at Georgetown University’s Institute of Government Affairs, explained that Trump actually faces less resistance from his own party than during his first term.

He noted that seven Republican senators crossed party lines to convict Trump during his second impeachment trial, in which he was accused of inciting an insurrection at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. Only three remain in the Senate today.

Meanwhile, only two out of 10 Republicans remain in the House of Representatives who voted to impeach Trump for the insurrection.

But despite the heroic reception Trump has received since his re-election, Blessing warned against using the words “Republican” and “harmony” in the same sentence.

Groups like the Trump-aligned Freedom Caucus have long had legislation in their infancy to advance their policy desires. Republican ardents, emboldened by Trump’s second term, are likely to once again face more moderate party members.

“I still think they will make it difficult to govern because these are people who have a professional reputation as gadflies and crusaders,” he told Al Jazeera.

“We will have to wait and see how this plays out in this Congress.”

overcoming division

Fault lines within the Republican Party will ultimately decide how much of Trump’s agenda is enacted.

But there will be other obstacles preventing the Republican trio from achieving every policy goal.

Bills can be passed by simple majority in both houses of Congress. But in the Senate, small groups and even individual senators can stall a bill indefinitely through endless debate, a process known as the filibuster.

Senators can only end debate and pass the bill with a 60-vote majority. Without Democratic cooperation, Republicans are likely to fall below that number.

But with their budget bill, Republicans have another tool to bypass the filibuster.

Both parties are increasingly relying on a process called “budget reconciliation” for quick passage. This process allows budgets and the legislation they include to pass by a simple majority, avoiding fraud.

The Senate parliamentarian, a nonpartisan office, ultimately determines what issues can be addressed through the “reconciliation” process.

‘Not just kneeling’

In his letter, Scalise outlined several key policy priorities for the Republican-led Congress.

These included restricting Trump’s proposed tax cuts to prevent irregular immigration, rolling back federal energy regulations and shifting resources to the U.S.-Mexico border.

While these agenda items have broad support from Republicans, other items he proposes are likely to be more controversial.

Scalise called on Republicans to eliminate “woke ideologies” and increase federal protections for “election integrity,” referencing Trump’s baseless claims about widespread election fraud.

Critics also question whether Republicans could roll back the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which includes sweeping measures to combat climate change, or the Affordable Care Act of 2010, which made insurance more accessible to U.S. residents.

The trio of Republicans will make these policy goals more achievable. But the Brookings Institution’s Kamarck warns that the Trump administration’s success will likely depend on the president’s own actions and how Congress responds to them.

“He is very strong. “There’s no doubt about that,” Kamarck said. “But the only thing that can weaken this power is his own choices.”

He noted Trump’s recent controversial nominations for cabinet-level posts.

He chose Fox News host Pete Hegseth as secretary of defense, former Democrat Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence, and far-right Congressman Matt Gaetz as attorney general.

These nominations will need to be approved by a simple majority in the Senate. But Trump’s picks have already irked some Republicans, including moderate Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who derided Gaetz as an “unserious” candidate.

George Washington University professor Belt also noted that the cabinet picks have the potential to damage the relationship between Trump and his fellow Republicans in Congress.

“This could really derail some of Trump’s momentum,” he said.

“And when you see a president lose momentum early in his term, that emboldens other members of Congress to work against him and not bend to his will.”