A critical SEC rivalry filled with College Football Playoff implications begins with two losses as No. 11 Georgia takes on No. 6 Tennessee with everything on the line. Let’s check the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model who predicts scores and picks winners.

Georgia faces a must-win situation in November with two losses and an ugly performance at Ole Miss as the selection committee keeps a close eye on what happens between the fences after knocking the Bulldogs out of the top dozen in this week’s rankings.

Tennessee has more room to maneuver with a loss at the top of the SEC standings, but still needs to impress the selectors by performing well on the road against a ranked opponent.

What do analytical models suggest will happen when the Volunteers visit the Bulldogs in this SEC rivalry clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Georgia and Tennessee compare in this Week 12 college football game.

The models are siding with the Bulldogs against the Vols in this matchup, but it’s a very close game.

SP+ predicts Georgia to beat Tennessee by one Estimated score from 27 to 23 and we will win the game by an expected margin 4.4 points difference To prevent a third loss.

One for the Model Bulldogs 61 percent chance Decisive victory over the Vols.

SP+ is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is this season? The SP+ model is 292-263-8 against the spread so far for a 52.6 winning percentage after going 30-19-1 (61%) last weekend.

Georgia one 10.5 point favorite against Tennessee, according to updated lines posted on FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel determined the total as follows: 47.5 points for the game (Over -114, Under -106).

And Georgia’s deposit rates are listed at: -385 and for Tennessee +300 To win for sure.

If you are using this prediction to bet on the game, you must:

If you do, you’ll be among the majority of bettors expecting the Vols to scare the Bulldogs based on the latest widespread consensus picks for the game.

Tennessee gets 66 percent Bets on an outright win in a loss or keeping the final margin in a loss to 10 points or less.

the other 34 percent Betting project Georgia will win the game and close the big gap.

Tennessee ranks 10th in national average 19.9 points better When all points from a win and a loss are counted, they are in a better position than their rivals this season.

became Georgia 8 points better higher than the competitive average in 2024.

These averages have come close to each other in the last three games.

became Tennessee 12 points better more than any other team in this span, Georgia played things close together and showed up 3.7 points better than the competition at that time.

Things look the same even considering the venue, although the Vols have a slight edge.

caught the Tennessee average 15.3 points better More from away opponents this season compared to Georgia’s debut 14 points better than competition when you are at home.

Most other analytical models also favor the Bulldogs over the Volunteers in this SEC clash.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer forecasting model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Georgia emerged as home favorites and took the lead 61.7 percent One of the computer’s latest simulations of the game.

That leaves Tennessee as the likely winner in the remaining race 38.3 percent from the sims.

But these figures represent only a win-loss calculation. What do they suggest about the likely margin of victory in the game?

We expect a very close one.

Georgia is expected to be 4.3 points better According to the model’s latest prediction, both teams’ current composition is larger than Tennessee’s on the same field.

More… Georgia vs. Tennessee forecast: What analytics say

Georgia ranks second among SEC teams. 75.5 percent probability To qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to FPI’s metrics.

This model shows Georgia will win 9.6 games this season.

one in tennessee 74.3 percent chance will qualify for the play-offs as third in the conference and win 10.3 games According to the index, it is at ’24’.

When: Saturday, November 16
Time: 19:30 Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Match odds are updated periodically and may change.

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