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    • Projected warming of the Earth has not improved in 3 years. UN climate talks still ongoing
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    Projected warming of the Earth has not improved in 3 years. UN climate talks still ongoing

    Harry Posted on

    Seth Borenstein, Sibi Arasu and Melina Walling
    | Associated Press

    Baku, Azerbaijan — Efforts to combat climate change have not lowered forecasts for how much the world will warm for the third year in a row, even as countries gather for a new round of talks to curb warming, an analysis showed Thursday.

    At United Nations climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, countries are trying to set new targets for reducing emissions of heat-trapping gases and calculate how much rich nations would pay to help the world with this task.

    But the Earth is on track to become 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than in pre-industrial times, according to Climate Action Tracker, a group of scientists and analysts who study government policies and translate that into warming forecasts.

    Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, said if emissions are still rising and temperature forecasts are no longer falling, people have to wonder whether the United Nations climate negotiations, known as the COP, will work.

    “There’s a lot of positive things happening here, but looking at the big picture of doing something to reduce emissions … to me it just seems very bad,” Hare said.

    Climate action is being suppressed by top emitters

    The world has already warmed by 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times. That’s close to the 1.5 degrees (2.7 F) limit that countries agreed to at the 2015 climate talks in Paris. Climate scientists say atmospheric warming, caused primarily by humans burning fossil fuels, is causing more extreme and damaging weather conditions, including droughts, floods and dangerous temperatures.

    Climate Action Tracker makes predictions under several different scenarios, and in some cases these predictions go up slightly.

    “This is largely driven by China,” said Sofia Gonzales-Zuniga of Climate Analytics. He said that although China’s rapidly increasing emissions have begun to plateau, they have reached a higher peak than expected.

    Another upcoming factor that is not yet included in the calculations is the US elections. Gonzales-Zuniga said a Trump administration that rolls back climate policies in the Inflation Reduction Act and carries out the conservative 2025 plan would add 0.04 degrees Celsius (0.07 Fahrenheit) to warming forecasts. That’s not much, but it could be more if other countries use it as an excuse to do less, he said.

    “Fossil fuels and emissions are not peaking,” said Sherry Rehman, chairman of the Pakistan senate committee on climate and environment. After 29 years of climate talks, Rehman said countries are “still talking through bumper stickers.”

    “We need a transformative solution. We need strong delivery,” Rehman said.

    Experts say $1 trillion in climate cash needed for developing countries

    The big fight in Baku is over how much rich nations will pay developing countries to decarbonize their energy systems, deal with the future damage of climate change and compensate for the damage caused by warming extreme weather.

    A special group of independent experts appointed by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres published its own cost and financing estimate on Thursday, calling for a tripling of the old commitment. Developing countries need about $1 trillion a year from all external sources, not just government grants, he said.

    The report stated that “advanced economies must demonstrate a credible commitment to aid poor countries.”

    Senior European officials said negotiations on the grand total and structuring the total amount had gone “one step back”, as a draft of only a few pages, which had been worked on for a year, was rejected and the final proposal, which included many options, was more than 30 pages. Hungarian negotiator Veronika Bagi. European Commission negotiator Jacob Werksman said there was a “very significant difference” between offers from rich and poor countries.

    German climate envoy Jennifer Morgan said “private investment must be brought to the table” to meet the needs of developing countries. But Christian Aid’s Mariana Paoli said any figures to emerge from the negotiations that were not based on publicly funded grants would be “meaningless”.

    Relying on the private sector means climate cash will be “profit-driven, not need-driven,” he said, adding that crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic and bank bailouts have proven that public funds are available.

    “This is about fairness, about fairness,” he said.

    Receiving climate money is a personal issue for many activists from Mexico and vulnerable countries, such as Sandra Leticia Guzman Luna, director of the Latin America and Caribbean climate finance group. “We observe that climate impacts cause many costs, not only economic costs but also human losses,” he said.

    Anxious politics is isolating some nations

    Argentina withdrew from climate talks on Wednesday at the orders of its president, Javier Milei, a climate skeptic. The Argentine government did not respond to requests for comment from The Associated Press.

    Climate activists described the decision as regrettable.

    “It is difficult to understand how a climate-vulnerable country like Argentina could deprive itself of critical support,” said Anabella Rosemberg, an Argentina native who works as a senior advisor at Climate Action Network International.

    Also on Wednesday, the French Environment Minister, who was to lead the delegation, withdrew from the talks after Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev called out France and the Netherlands about their colonial past.

    Agnès Pannier-Runacher called Aliyev’s remarks about France and Europe “unacceptable”. Speaking to the French Senate on Wednesday, Pannier-Runacher criticized the Azerbaijani leader for using the fight against climate change “for a shameful personal agenda.”

    “Direct attacks on our country, its institutions and territory are not justified,” he said.

    COP29 negotiator Rafiyev declined to comment on the Pannier-Runacher decision on Thursday but said “Azerbaijan has made sure we have an inclusive process.”

    “We opened our doors to anyone coming in for constructive, critical discussions,” he said.

    Associated Press reporter Sylvie Corbet contributed from Paris.

    The Associated Press’s climate and environment coverage receives funding from many private organizations. AP is solely responsible for all content. find APs standards for working with philanthropists, a list of supporters and areas of funded coverage AP.org.

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