Texas A&M hosts LSU on Saturday night in a matchup between top-15 teams with identical 6-1 records and unblemished SEC standings.

While the Aggies are praised for their defense, they have yet to face a team with the offensive prowess of the Tigers.

Brian Kelly has always been flexible at different stops when adjusting his teams to their strengths, and now that he’s at LSU, attracting top talent year after year is no longer a problem.

Despite losing Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels and two first-round receivers, Kelly and the Tigers’ offense can easily reload thanks to the quality depth that will be on display Saturday night in College Station.

LSU and Texas A&M odds

LSU view

Garrett Nussmeier has completed 55% of his passes (69-of-125) in three SEC games, but Kelly defended his quarterback this week and said his offense encourages Nussmeier to read more on the field.

“You don’t get some of the cake shots that get the chains moving in other offenses,” Kelly said. “But we think it’s a better fit for Garrett in terms of what he does. And it worked pretty well for our offense.”

Nussmeier’s aggression has undoubtedly paid off, as he ranks seventh nationally in yards per game (317.4) and leads the SEC with 18 passing touchdowns.

According to Game on Paper, their drop translates into 0.27 Expected Points Added (EPA); This is the 10th best rating in the country.

The truth is, given the Tigers’ difficulties moving the ball on the ground, it’s almost necessary for Kelly to rely on the passing game. LSU’s running success rate is just 38.3%, ranking 99th in the FBS.

Texas A&M view

There are no secrets about how the Aggies will try to attack LSU. Unlike the Tigers, Texas A&M is a more run-dominant team, ranking 34th in yards per carry (5.77) and 39th in EPA/rushing rating (+0.09).

It’s no surprise, then, that the Aggies have a run-to-play ratio of 62.06%; This is the 11th highest score in the country.

LSU’s problem is that it is extremely weak against the run, with opponents averaging 5.29 yards per carry (93rd).

Against South Carolina, the Tigers allowed 243 rushing yards on 5.9 yards per carry in a narrow 36-33 victory. South Carolina and Texas A&M have very similar profiles, with publication rates in the top 20.

You can be sure that Aggies coach Mike Elko will be watching the game tape extensively to identify the Tigers’ weaknesses in this important SEC matchup.

LSU and Texas A&M selection

Although the Aggies want to keep the ball on the ground, this high-powered LSU offense may force them to give up the run sooner than they would like.

While Texas A&M has success in the passing game, it is extremely young at quarterback with sophomore Conner Weigman and freshman Marcel Reed.

Weigman regained the starting job after Reed returned from a shoulder injury, despite going 3-0 with six touchdowns and zero interceptions.

In return, Weigman threw three touchdown passes along with four picks. However, the TD-INT ratio is a bit misleading because it misinterprets Texas A&M’s ability to score in the running game. The Aggies have already scored 16 field goals.

The Aggies should have opportunities to move the ball through the air against LSU’s defense, which ranks 98th with an EPA/strikeback ratio of +0.05.

Betting on College Football?

The Tigers also struggle to clear the ball as they have only managed four interceptions on the season.

Considering this is a match where both teams can play to their strengths, we should see plenty of points on the scoreboard when all is said and done.

Best bet: Over 54.5 points (-110, BetMGM)

Why Should You Trust New York Post Betting?

Michael Arinze covers most major sports for the New York Post. He cashed two 15-leg teasers during his punting career, as well as a 12-leg call that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he correctly selected the 2024 European Championship and Copa America finalists.