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    • Hurricane Sara is expected to target Florida this week
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    Hurricane Sara is expected to target Florida this week

    Harry Posted on

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    Hurricane SaraThis stock, currently called Invest 99L, is expected to form this week and move northwest toward Florida by the middle of next week. AccuWeather.

    National Hurricane Center increased the probability Tropical Storm Sara It will reach 90% in the next two days and is expected to intensify thereafter. hurricane.

    “Wind shear remains low across most of the Caribbean and waters are quite warm (in the 80s F),” said AccuWeather On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.

    “And now, with showers and thunderstorms starting to pick up, it probably won’t be long before the tropical rainstorm continues to organize steadily. tropical storm“

    Like other hurricanes that have emerged in the Caribbean Sea this year, conditions may allow Sara to quickly intensify and grow from a fledgling storm into a major hurricane in just a few days.

    “There are multiple scenarios in the Caribbean with early tracking that depend on the rate of development and may impact land areas with subsequent landfall and direct impacts,” said AccuWeather Chief Hurricane Specialist Alex DaSilva.

    “Not only does this have a good chance of becoming a hurricane by this weekend, but it could also become a major hurricane very quickly this weekend.”

    While the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season initially got off to a slow start during an uncharacteristic lull, the back end of the season has indeed been overloaded.

    A typical season sees about seven hurricanes. Sara will be the 12th hurricane of the season and has the potential to become the sixth major hurricane.

    When will we see Tropical Storm and Hurricane Sara?

    The National Hurricane Center predicts that Tropical Storm Sara has a high chance of forming within the next 48 hours. AccuWeather then suspects the storm will intensify rapidly.

    “The rainstorm has the potential to become a hurricane as early as Friday morning,” AccuWeather wrote in its latest update. “It is expected to intensify further from here, and a Category 3 major hurricane (maximum sustained winds of 181 mph or greater) is expected to churn in the Western Caribbean this weekend.”

    Hurricane Sara expected to make a path towards Florida

    Conditions currently indicate that the system will slowly move westward into the Western Caribbean Sea before turning northwestward early next week and possibly turning northeastward by midweek.

    AccuWeather released an early timeline showing Sara rapidly intensifying from a tropical storm between Friday and Saturday to a Category 3 hurricane as it moved rapidly westward.

    The storm will begin moving northwestward on Saturday afternoon. From here, Sara will maintain major hurricane status as it moves north-northwest through Tuesday morning. AccuWeather expects the storm to turn northeast toward Florida’s Gulf Coast by Tuesday afternoon.

    How will Hurricane Sara affect Florida?

    Exactly how Florida may be affected by Hurricane Sara is still being evaluated. Current data shows South Florida has the best chance of seeing at least some impact.

    A major hurricane causes heavy downpours, flash floods, and strong winds. Any affected areas can predict some property damage and power outages. Severe storm surge will also pose a significant risk to life and property safety.

    sara storm track

    There are two possible scenarios that could result in Hurricane Sara making some landfall in Florida, and they all depend on the high pressure dome that will form along the southern Atlantic Coast of the United States.

    According to AccuWeather, if the pressure lifts quickly enough and the ensuing cold front follows suit, we will see a stronger Hurricane Sara that will have a greater impact on Florida. Directing breezes may direct the system toward the Florida Keys and the southern portion of the Florida Peninsula.

    If the pressure holds and the subsequent cold front arrives a little slower, it will direct Sara towards Central America or southeastern Mexico this weekend and into next week. Sara can then move towards that area or head towards the Gulf of Mexico.

    In the second scenario, the longer Sara spends over land, the more likely it is that the storm will lose enough wind intensity to prevent it from reintegrating into a hurricane before approaching the Florida Peninsula or possibly the Florida Panhandle.

    Rafael continues to impact area beaches throughout the Florida Panhandle

    The remnants of Hurricane Rafael continue to bring life-threatening rip currents and high waves to the Florida Panhandle.

    Residual waves from the storm are still present in the Gulf and will continue to cause locally rough waves and strong currents from Pensacola Beach to Panama City.

    AccuWeather says the remnants of Rafael will continue to rotate around the western and central Gulf over the next few days, but wind shear will also continue to chip away at what’s left of Rafael’s circulation and moisture.

    “We believe some or most of the remaining moisture from Rafael will be pulled northward to the central Gulf Coast region by mid-week as an extratropical feature — a cold front moving west to east across the lower Mississippi Valley,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Grady Gilman said .

    Pensacola area weather for the week of November 11-17

    Cooler, drier conditions can be expected in the Pensacola area after a wet week. As we get closer to the weekend, temperatures will fluctuate with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the mid-50s to low 40s. National Weather Service Office Mobile/Pensacola.

    • Wednesday, November 13 — There is a 50% chance of showers after 15:00 on Wednesday. Skies are mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. It will be windy, with an east wind gusting between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Wednesday night will see showers and possible thunderstorms. The low will be around 70.
    • Thursday, November 14 — There will be a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9 a.m. Skies will be mostly cloudy with a high around 77 before conditions improve. A south wind will blow north at 10 mph in the afternoon. Starting from Thursday night, temperatures will drop to around 53 degrees.
    • Friday, November 15 — Friday will be mostly sunny; The high temperature will be around 71 and the low will be around 52.
    • Saturday, November 16 — It will be sunny on Saturday; The highest temperature will be around 74 degrees and the lowest temperature will be around 57 degrees.
    • Sunday, November 17 — It will be sunny on Sunday too; The highest temperature will be around 76 degrees and the lowest temperature will be around 61 degrees.
    • Monday, November 18 — Monday will be mostly clear; The highest temperature will be around 77 degrees and the lowest temperature will be around 66.
    • Tuesday, November 19 — There is a 20% chance of showers on Tuesday, but most of the area will be partly sunny. The highest temperature will be near 78 degrees.

    Pensacola Beach weather and flags

    According to the National Weather Service Office Mobile/Pensacola, Pensacola Beach will experience moderate to high rip currents through Friday.

    • Current flag conditions at Pensacola Beach: Double red flag
    • Current Water temperature: 76 degrees.
    • Tomorrow’s beach flag prediction: 40% red flag, 60% double red flag

    Pensacola Beach rip current forecast:

    • Tuesday: Moderate — Life-threatening rip currents are possible. Beachgoers should swim near a lifeguard and heed local beach patrol advice and flag warnings.
    • Wednesday: High — Life-threatening rip currents possible. Surfing is dangerous for swimmers of all levels.
    • Thursday: High
    • Friday: Medium

    Editor’s note: This story has been updated to include the National Hurricane Center’s latest description of the storm and spaghetti models.

    Harry
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