Amid rising regional tensions, voters in the self-declared state of Somaliland will vote on Wednesday in the fourth general election since its secession from Somalia in 1991. Although Somaliland now has its own government, parliament, currency, passports and other features of an independent country, its sovereignty is not recognized internationally as Somalia continues to consider it part of its territory.

In the capital Hargeisa, supporters of the ruling Kulmiye (Peace, Unity and Development) Party filled the streets wearing green and yellow shirts, singing victory songs and women howling when the campaign ended last week.

Incumbent President Muse Bihi Abdi is seeking a five-year renewal of his term in elections that have been postponed for two years due to time and financial constraints, according to officials. His main rival is former parliament speaker and opposition candidate Abdirahman “Irro” Mohamed Abdullahi of the Somaliland National Party, also known as the Wadani party, which has promised a greater role for women and youth in his government.

The rising cost of living and regional tensions with rebels in the disputed Las Anod, which is claimed by Puntland, another autonomous region that broke away from Somalia in 1998, emerged as the main problems ahead of the election.

Crucially, the vote is also shaped by the international weight of the candidates and what this might do to Somaliland, which aspires to be recognized as a separate country.

President Abdi praised his administration’s landmark “port of recognition” memorandum of understanding (MOU) on an agreement with neighboring Ethiopia signed by him and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in January. The proposed deal would allow larger, landlocked Ethiopia to use Somaliland’s Red Sea port of Berbera. In response, Ethiopia said it would conduct an “in-depth assessment” of Somaliland’s quest for official recognition. Ethiopia has not specifically said it will recognize Somaliland in the strict sense of the word. But officials in Hargeisa see final recognition as consequential.

The historic maritime Memorandum caused outrage in Somalia, and relations between Ethiopia and Somalia have nearly collapsed since then. In October, Ethiopian diplomat Ali Mohamed Adan was deported from Somalia, the latest in a long list of back-and-forth diplomatic spats.

Irro took advantage of the situation and accused Abdi of being a divisive actor.

Egypt, Ethiopia’s long-time rival, and Türkiye, Somalia’s close ally, have entered this struggle. While Türkiye assumes its role as a peacemaker by facilitating negotiations, Egypt supports Somalia by providing military aid.

“The situation became more tense with the involvement of other actors,” Hargeisa-based political analyst Mousafa Ahmad told Al Jazeera. “I’m not sure how the deal will turn out. I would say it’s very unpredictable.” There is no set date yet for the agreement to become official.

Port agreement: International recognition of Somaliland?

Ethiopia, Africa’s largest landlocked nation by population (more than 120 million), has for some time relied solely on the ports of its smaller neighbor Djibouti for access to the Gulf of Aden. After a three-decade war, Eritrea seceded from Ethiopia in 1993, causing the country to lose access to its coastline; officials here have always seen this as a hindrance to regional “great power” status.

Addis Ababa has since sought more direct access to key maritime routes around Djibouti in a bid to diversify its offering. Last October, Prime Minister Abiy told parliament that Ethiopia was surrounded by water but remained “waterless.” He said access to the Red Sea and Nile would secure the country’s future.

Under the Somaliland agreement, Ethiopia will receive a 50-year lease of Berbera Port, providing Addis Ababa with 20 km (12.5 mi) of the Red Sea coastline for commercial naval operations and a naval base. The port was redeveloped in 2018 by Dubai firm and port manager DP World, which has a 51 percent stake in its operations. Hargeisa held a 30 percent stake in the public-private partnership, while Addis Ababa held a 19 percent stake.

In addition, under the agreement made in January, Hargeisa will also receive a stake in state-owned Ethiopian Airlines, but details on this part of the deal are still scant.

Some analysts say official recognition of Ethiopia could pave the way for global recognition and lead other countries to trade with Somaliland or open embassies there.

Looks like a deal has been made for Hargeisa. “We are ready and waiting for Ethiopia to sign the agreement,” President Abdi told reporters on the campaign trail earlier this month. Authorities are trying to market the port as an alternative avenue to the Suez Canal, where ships have come under attack from Houthi rebels. This will be an economic “game changer” at the local level, Abdi said, and is set to generate about $3.4 billion in revenue.

Analysts say the change in power is unlikely to dampen domestic enthusiasm for the deal; however, the Wadani party criticized Abdi for his divisive handling of the agreement with Ethiopia. “For Somaliland, the agreement is still ongoing and will continue even if there is a change of government and Wadani wins the elections,” Ahmad said.

But when this will happen is another question entirely. Amid the regional crisis, Ethiopia has yet to set a date for when the lease will come into force or officially recognize Somaliland; For some, this may be an attempt to slow down the process rather than immediately escalate tensions.

Enemies in the alliance?

A day after the Somaliland port deal was announced in January, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation (MFA) in Mogadishu issued a statement declaring that it was “outrageous” and a “blatant violation” by Ethiopia and that Somalia would not concede “an inch” . ” region.

President Hasan Sheikh Mahmud, in his statement to the deputies in the parliament, said, “We will not stand by and watch our sovereignty be endangered.” On the same day, Ethiopia’s ambassador was sent home.

Somalia has also turned to Egypt, which is already at odds with Ethiopia over the controversial $4 billion dam project on the Blue Nile River. The dam controversy dates back to 2011, when Ethiopia began building the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) near Guba in hopes of generating approximately 5,000 megawatts of additional electricity from the Nile; This is twice the current availability for its energy-starved population.

Egypt, which also relies on the Nile, strongly opposed the project, arguing that the dam would destroy water resources for agriculture and domestic use. Talks between the two countries stalled after Cairo accused Addis Ababa of being too tough and threatened to “defend Egypt”. Ethiopia stubbornly continued on its way and started producing electricity from the dam in 2022.

In August, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi signed a defense agreement with Somalia’s Mahmoud to improve security. At a summit in Asmara in October, el-Sisi and Mahmoud joined Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki to pledge greater cooperation on regional security.

Cairo has since delivered heavy military equipment to Mogadishu, including weapons and armored vehicles, loaded onto several planes in August and September, in an apparent show of force that angered the Ethiopian government.

The military agreement comes as the African Transition Mission (ATMIS) in Somalia ends this year. The peacekeeping mission, supported by the African Union, is largely led by Ethiopia, which has provided 4,300 troops. It started in 2007 to defend Somalia against the armed group Al Shabaab. Uganda, Burundi, Djibouti and Kenya also contributed troops.

Mogadishu announced that Ethiopia is the only country not included in a separate reserve mission that will begin its mandate on January 1, 2025. Meanwhile, Cairo announced that it is ready to assign approximately 5,000 personnel to join the new formation. Egypt did not take part in the first mission.

Other countries also joined the queue. Türkiye, a long-time Somali ally, has tried to play its role as a peacemaker by brokering multiple rounds of talks in Ankara that have largely stalled and are now postponed indefinitely. Turkey has a military base in Mogadishu.

Tensions between Djibouti and Ethiopia are also increasing. Djibouti, like Somaliland, is located in eastern Ethiopia and shares a border with the breakaway region. The small country relies on maritime industries for income and is also angry about a proposed deal between Somaliland and Ethiopia that would remove its main source of income. Currently, Djibouti handles more than 90 percent of Ethiopia’s maritime trade.

Officials there also condemned Hargeisa’s allegations that it was financing, training and arming rebel groups from Somaliland’s Issa and Gadabursi clans seeking control of the region. The accusations were made after the port agreement Memorandum of Understanding in January.

‘No recognition, no agreement’

Analysts warn that if the situation does not calm down, tensions between regional superpowers Ethiopia and Egypt could escalate to the point of military action.

“If the Egyptians land and deploy troops on the Ethiopian border, this could bring the two into direct confrontation,” Rashid Abdi, a Kenya-based analyst at the think tank Sahan Research, told Reuters news agency. “The threat of a direct armed war is low, but a proxy conflict is possible.”

To defuse tensions, some experts have warned Ethiopia not to officially recognize Somaliland while leasing its port.

“Ethiopia could access the sea via Somaliland without official recognition,” analyst writes Endalcachew Bayeh Both powers need to reconsider their strategies and “exert restraint”, he added in academic publication The Conversation.

Ethiopia has yet to sign the final port lease and take no further significant steps, although it officially became the first country to do so by sending an ambassador to Hargeisa in January, soon after the port agreement Memorandum of Understanding was signed.

Meanwhile, Somaliland officials reiterated that they are ready to officially launch the port agreement with Ethiopia, despite regional reactions. In apparent solidarity with its new ally, Somaliland closed an Egyptian cultural center in Hargeisa in September.

Analyst Ahmed said taking the recognition agreement off the table was a non-starter for Somaliland.

“The Somali government and people are very clear on this; recognition is the starting point of cooperation,” he said. “From Somaliland’s perspective, this is neither recognition nor agreement.”