The deployment of North Korean troops to help Russia in its war against Ukraine is unlikely to have a significant impact on conflicts on the ground but could impact security interests in Asia, Europe and elsewhere, analysts said.

Growing military ties between Moscow and Pyongyang are a major concern for Washington and Brussels, as Russian leader Vladimir Putin continues his efforts to forge an anti-Western alliance.

“The conflict is becoming international,” said Pascal Dayez-Burgeon, a North Korea expert and former French diplomat in Seoul.

But while he said he understood Western concerns about the risk of possible expansion of the war, now in its third year, he downplayed any immediate threat to the global security architecture.

“In reality, I have a hard time seeing North Korea posing a threat to escalate tensions,” he said, calling the North a “little dictatorship.”

On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia plans to send North Korean troops into battle against his country as early as Sunday. He claimed that North Korea had trained 10,000 soldiers to support Russia.

South Korea, NATO and the United States claim that thousands of North Korean soldiers are currently training in Russia.

Russian lawmakers on Thursday unanimously approved an agreement with North Korea providing for “mutual assistance” if either side faces aggression. South Korea has warned that it “will not stand idly by” regarding the North’s troop deployment.

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‘No Triple Alliance’

“We are no longer in a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but between Russia, North Korea and Ukraine,” said Marie Dumoulin of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

However, analysts said it is unclear how North Korean troops will be used in this war, which has turned into a war of attrition by Russia against Ukraine, adding that North Korean forces have no combat experience.

“I don’t think sending a few thousand North Korean soldiers whose training levels we don’t know would make much operational difference on the battlefield,” Dumoulin said.

“In any case, 10,000 soldiers is not that many,” added Isabelle Facon of the France-based Foundation for Strategic Research.

Russia has a long history of ties to the Stalinist state. Moscow and the North have grown closer since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022; Seoul and Washington claimed that North Korea sent weapons for use in the conflict.

Analysts say the new “strategic partnership” between Moscow and Pyongyang is in line with Putin’s efforts to reshape the global security architecture and forge an alliance that would undermine US dominance.

This week, Putin hosted nearly 20 leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, at the BRICS summit, Russia’s biggest diplomatic event since its invasion of Ukraine.

However, experts stated that they do not believe that China and Iran will directly intervene in Ukraine.

“There is no Triple Alliance or Triple Entente,” Dayez-Burgeon said, referring to the power blocs before the outbreak of World War I in 1914.

“This would certainly be the case if China or Iran entered the conflict, but this is not the case.” He added that China’s focus is on Taiwan and that Iran has vital interests in the Middle East.

Security on the Korean Peninsula

However, analysts said that if the two Koreas were incorporated into Ukraine, it would affect security on the Korean Peninsula. Seoul has suggested it may review its long-standing policy of blocking direct arms shipments to Ukraine.

“The Ukrainian theater risks being the first direct test of Korea’s military capabilities since the Armistice of 1953,” wrote Darcie Draudt-Vejares, a Korea expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“This development could fundamentally alter the security balance on the Korean Peninsula, especially if North Korea gains combat experience while testing advanced weapons systems.”

Dumoulin pointed out that Russia could provide support to the North if tensions with South Korea increase within the scope of the “strategic partnership” agreement.

Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed the defense agreement in June. Under Article 4, the two countries undertake to provide military and other assistance if either of them is attacked.

“But what and how we do it is our business,” Putin said this week.

Andrew Yeo, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said North Korea’s support for Russia could encourage states such as Iran to further strengthen their ties with Moscow.

“Unlike Beijing, Moscow is ready to pursue bloc politics and embrace the idea of ​​a new Cold War,” he added.

“Russia is more isolated than China and therefore sees more benefits in bringing non-aligned or anti-imperialist countries together.”