Identifying players who have run particularly hot or cold in recent weeks will be the goal of this field during the 2024 NFL season.

Spotting men who are “due” doesn’t always work because my kids recently lost my magic eight ball, leaving me powerless to predict the future. Still, we insist on finding NFL players who have performed above their opportunities and are on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance. Because “luck” is a very crude and simple thing.

Positive Regression Candidates

quarterback

Justin Herbert (LAC)

Herbert got away with it in Week 10 against the Titans. A quick score from a few yards out in the first half salvaged an otherwise forgettable fantasy outing for Herbert, as Chargers offensive coordinator Greg Roman returned to his mega-run-heavy roots. LA was 8 percent below their expected pass rush against the Titans, their third-heaviest game of the 2024 season, after being among the top pass-heavy offenses in the NFL over the past three weeks.

Herbert’s nine rushes against Tennessee were nice, but we can’t rely on the quarterback to hustle from week to week. It was only the second time in 2024 that Herbet surpassed five rushes in a game. What we can rely on is the Regression Reaper (the good kind in this case). Herbert has the fourth-most passing yards on eight downs in the NFL since Week 6. He has a modest 3.8 percent touchdown rate (6 TDs) over this five-game stretch, and his Week 11 date comes against a decent Bengals defense.

Despite a run-heavy approach in Week 10, the Bolts have the third-highest neutral first pass rate since Week 6, trailing only the Browns and Bengals. This shows that Roman and his team are ready and willing to facilitate the transition when necessary. That will also be the case this week if the Bengals defense gives up the NFL’s sixth-highest EPA per dropback. For the first time in living memory, Herbert may be a lock at QB1 in Week 11.

Running Back

Josh Jacobs (Great Britain)

It makes little sense that 73 percent of the Packers’ touchdowns this season have come via passing (only four teams have a higher rate). Green Bay, where Jordan Love has been in and out of the lineup all season, ranks 26th in pass rate, higher than expected. They are 10 percent below expected pass rates in the last two games.

However, Josh Jacobs only has three rushing touchdowns this season. Curious!

Part of the reason for this is that the Packers have abandoned the run in the red zone. Jacobs has 20 inside-20 rushes on the season and just two scores. And it’s not like Jacobs is acting like a vulture where another Green Bay matters most; In 2024, he saw 75 percent of the team’s offensive attempts inside 10 yards. This will be a pretty sweet spot for Jacobs in Week 11 against the Bears defense, which has the league’s highest yards-before-touchdown ratio per rush and third-lowest. stuffed rush attempts.

Unless rookie Mar’Shawn Lloyd steps up against the Bears in Week 11 and takes back much of the lead role from the crafty veteran, Jacobs should continue to see the kind of high-leverage touches that often translate into fantasy production.

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Wide Receiver

Davante Adams (NYJ)

The process has never been this bad, I understand. Adams has 24 targets over the past two weeks — more than anyone not named Ja’Marr Chase — and just 132 yards and a single touchdown to show for it. The abundance of targets didn’t even matter against the Cardinals, one of the league’s weakest coverage units. Your pain is real. I can feel it from here.

But you’re not legally allowed to give up Adams. He has slowly regained his former role in the Packers offense, with Aaron Rodgers once again trying to play the greatest hits before starting his podcast or sitting in a dark cave all day or doing whatever is next for the Hall of Famer. Adams’ 28 percent target run rate per route over the last four games is indicative of Rodgers’ determination to force-feed his old friend this lost season. Many of the easy button types we like are targets; Since Week 7, only Travis Kelce has more targets from 0-9 yards than Adams. For fantasy purposes we can’t ask for more. We love fraud.

Adams cools down everywhere, including in the end zone. He converted seven of ten targets into a single touchdown on the season. Adams has out-touched Garrett Wilson inside the ten-yard line since being traded to the Jets. More of Rodgers’ high-value appearances will ultimately benefit Adams. Don’t be cute and sideline him in Week 11 against a middling Colts secondary.

Courtland Sutton (DEN)

Pleased with the way things went for Sutton in Week 10. Six catches, 70 yards and a touchdown. You will get it from your WR3.

This is just to remind you that Sutton, not Ja’Marr Chase, not Justin Jefferson, led the NFL in air yards this season. Sutton has 1,039 airfields; The next closest Broncos receiver (Troy Franklin) had 409 air yards. His 12 receptions of over 20 yards rank third among all receivers.

Sutton has been so cold for so long that November and December could see a sustained period of positive decline. Denver’s offense isn’t the worst environment for an airfield hog like Sutton. The Broncos have the eighth-highest pass-rush rate in the league, as Sean Payton looks increasingly comfortable letting Bo Nix cook. Sutton must remain on the roster for the rest of the season.

Tight End

Hunter Henry (NE)

Coming off a one-catch game, Henry still has the third-most tight end receptions (21) since Week 6, and only five tight ends have more targets in that span. Henry somewhat serves as the de facto WR1 in New England’s offense.

Henry should be a fantasy fit going forward. He’s run nearly half of his passes from the slot since Week 6, which is good for fantasy purposes. In a game where the Patriots are looking for points, a Week 11 matchup that can be picked up in coverage by the Rams could be just what Henry needs to get some of the sweet, sweet regression for his side.

Negative Regression Candidates

quarterback

Jared Goff (DET)

How can a quarterback who throws five interceptions in a single game regress? This is a question that has been going on for centuries. Maybe we’ll never know.

What I do know is that Goff’s 9.5 percent goal rate over the last five games cannot continue. Lions OC Ben Johnson is on the heater, which means Goff is on the heater despite the five-pick debacle against the Texans on Sunday night. Goff’s 6.6 percent TD rate on the season trails only Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield. And you probably knew this part was coming: Goff’s career touchdown rate is 4.4 percent. Last year, with largely the same offensive weapons, he scored on 5 percent of his attempts.

Naturally, I’m going to look like an idiot in Week 11 when Goff turns on his secondary lights in the Jaguars’ arrival. Still, I insist on telling you that Goff will face Throwback at some point. Production of the Reaper and this unseemly tank destroyer will cease.

It might be helpful for fantasy managers to remember just how sluggish the Lions want to run: They’re 8 percent under their expected drop rate this season, and they’ve been 13 and 18 percent under that rate in their last two games, respectively. Ben Johnson wants to establish this more than anything.

Wide Receiver

Marques Valdes-Scantling (NO)

Congratulations to those who played MVS in Week 10 against the Falcons, but there is no such person. And if you insist that you were forced to play Valdes-Scantling against Atlanta, I’ll ask for visual proof.

MVS, as you know by now, caught all three of his targets for 109 yards and two touchdowns; He ran as the clear No. 1 player while Chris Olave was sidelined with another brain injury. Valdes-Scantling’s Week 10 usage was fine: He ran a route on 18 of the team’s 33 comebacks, half from the edge and half from the gap.

MVS ranked 13th among all NFL pass catchers in air yards for the week, with a gaudy 53 percent air yard share. Presumably, MVS is in the outcome range to see 40-50 percent of the Saints’ air yards as long as Olave remains out of the game. He takes over the valuable Rashid Shaheed role despite the high volatility in this New Orleans offense.

The Saints were back to doing fun and great things on offense in Week 11. His play action rates of 37 percent and action rates of 60 percent were the highest since Week 2. Action-packed deep shooting for Valdes-Scantling in the coming weeks could make him a viable WR4. Just know that you won’t get any of the easy button looks that create a fantastic backdrop.

Jayden Reed (Great Britain)

Reed averaged a high 17.2 yards per reception through Week 10; That’s what helped him prove he could stay afloat, even though he only had 36 catches on the season, on par with the likes of Tank Dell and Ray-Ray McCloud.

Reed gets away with this because he is averaging nearly eight yards after the catch per catch. I understand that this is part of his game. There’s a reason why Reed’s truthers call him Baby Deebo. His production has been inconsistent, though, and he hasn’t shown himself to be in command of a target in any way outside of last season, when he missed two of the Packers’ starting slots.

Reed has seen a target on 20 percent of his passing routes this season. While it’s nowhere near elite receivers who target 24-28 percent of their routes, that’s hardly a hateful rate. This lack of hitting is also reflected in the fact that Reed has fewer than five catches in six of his nine games this year. He should probably be considered a WR3 with upside rather than a “set it and forget it” WR2 option in 12-team leagues.

Tight End

Mark Andrews (BAL)

I keep putting Andrews in this situation and he keeps attacking me like an angry god. Please Andrew, I’ve literally been hit. Stop catching goals.

Andrews has four touchdowns on 17 catches in the last four games. And those 17 receptions led to 18 targets. The guy runs as fast as any player in the league, and while his red zone usage could keep him afloat as a viable fantasy play in 12-team leagues — especially if Isaiah likely misses more time — he’s on track for a touchdown putback.

Andrews’ regression could be part of a larger trend in Baltimore’s offense. 62 percent of the team’s goals came via passing in 2024, up from 50 percent in 2023. Over the last four games, 71 percent of the Ravens’ touchdowns have come in the form of passes. It’s not like the Ravens got incredibly sluggish last month; They are still 4 percentage points below their expected drop rate and have only been more than twice that rate all season.

Lamar Jackson will take no prisoners this season; This is very clear. But the nature of the Ravens’ offense hasn’t changed, and the insane scoring production we’ve seen from Lamar, Andrews and other Baltimore pass catchers may (should) regress in the next week or two or three.