By Gloria Dickie

BAKU (Reuters) – This year’s UN climate summit – COP29 – is being held in another year of record-breaking global temperatures, increasing pressure on negotiations aimed at halting climate change.

The latest global scientific consensus on climate change was published in 2021 through the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but scientists say evidence shows global warming and its effects are occurring faster than expected.

Here are some of the latest climate research:

1.5C VIOLATION?

Scientists say the world may have reached a warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 F) above the average pre-industrial temperature; This is a critical threshold that, if exceeded, risks irreversible and extreme climate change.

A group of researchers made the suggestion in a study published Monday based on analysis of 2,000 years of atmospheric gases trapped in Antarctic ice cores, expanding the understanding of pre-industrial temperature trends.

Scientists typically measured today’s temperatures relative to the baseline temperature average from 1850 to 1900. By this measurement, the world is currently warming by about 1.3 C (2.4 F).

But the new data suggests a longer pre-industrial baseline, based on temperature data spanning 13 to 1700, according to the study published in the journal Nature Geoscience.

Either way, 2024 is certain to be the hottest year in history.

Supercharged tornadoes

Ocean warming is not only fueling stronger Atlantic storms, but also causing them to intensify faster; such as jumping from a Category 1 storm to a Category 3 storm in just a few hours.

Increasing evidence suggests this is also true for other ocean basins.

Hurricane Milton needed just one day in October to transform from a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico to slamming into Florida’s west coast, becoming the Gulf’s second-strongest hurricane in history.

Warmer air can also hold more moisture, which helps storms carry more rain and eventually release more rain. As a result, hurricanes cause flooding even in mountain towns like Asheville, North Carolina, which was flooded by Hurricane Helene in September.

FIRE DEATHS

Global warming is drying up waterways and depleting moisture in forests; From the U.S. West and Canada to Southern Europe and the Russian Far East, it is creating conditions for larger, hotter wildfires and creating more noxious smoke.

The study, published last month in the journal Nature Climate Change, calculated that around 13% of deaths linked to toxic wildfire smoke in the 2010s, or roughly 12,000 deaths, were attributable to climate’s impact on wildfires.

CORAL BLEACHING

As the world is in the throes of the fourth largest mass coral bleaching event on record, scientists fear the world’s reefs have passed the point of no return.

Scientists will examine bleached reefs from Australia to Brazil for signs of recovery over the next few years if temperatures drop.

AMAZON ALERT

Brazil’s Amazon is in the grip of the worst and most widespread drought since records began in 1950. River levels have fallen to all-time lows this year as fires ravage rainforests.

This adds concern to scientific findings that by 2050, 10 percent to 47 percent of the Amazon will face heat and drought stress, as well as other threats, from climate change.

This could push Amazon to a tipping point; the forest may no longer produce enough moisture to extinguish its own trees; At this point the ecosystem may turn into degraded forests or sandy savannas.

Globally, forests appear to be struggling.

A July study found that forests were unable to absorb as much carbon dioxide from the atmosphere last year as in the past, largely due to the Amazon drought and wildfires in Canada.

This means a record amount of CO2 is entering the atmosphere.

VOLCANIC FLUCTUATION

Scientists fear that climate change could even increase volcanic eruptions.

In Iceland, volcanoes appear to be responding to the rapid retreat of glaciers. As the ice melts, less pressure is exerted on the crust and mantle.

Volcanologists worry that this could destabilize magma reservoirs and allow more magma to form, creating pressure underground.

Approximately 245 volcanoes worldwide are under or near ice and may be at risk.

OCEAN SLOWING DOWN

Warming of the Atlantic could accelerate the collapse of a major existing system; scientists warn that this is already being disrupted.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which carries warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic, has helped keep European winters milder for centuries.

While research in 2018 showed the AMOC had weakened by about 15% since 1950, research published in February in the journal Science Advances suggested it may be closer to a critical slowdown than previously thought.

(Reporting by Gloria Dickie; Editing by Katy Daigle and Alexander Smith)