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AP VoteCast takeaway: Gender vote gap was unremarkable compared to recent history
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AP VoteCast takeaway: Gender vote gap was unremarkable compared to recent history

NEW YORK (AP) — Donald Trump ran a campaign centered on hypermasculinity and actively courted young men, especially through interviews on popular male-centered podcasts.

The former president and many of his surrogates in the closing weeks of the campaign He turned to sexist remarks and jokes about Vice President Kamala Harris.

Some of his supporters, including former presidential rival Nikki Haley, have warned that the former president risks worsening his persistent gender divide with Harris. Prominent lawmakers, from billionaire Elon Musk to Charlie Kirk, founder of the conservative youth organization Turning Point, have urged men to vote in large numbers to counter Harris’ expected strength among women.

Finally, gender vote gap it was unremarkable by the standards of recent history.

Here are some takeaways from AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 120,000 voters nationwide:

Gender gap was large but not unusual

The poll showed that men are more likely than women to support President-elect Trump. This difference in voting preferences remained largely the same, although there was a modest change in voting preferences between men and women.

Harris had the advantage among women; The margin was 53 percent to Trump’s 46 percent, but that margin was slightly narrower than President Joe Biden’s margin in 2020, according to the poll. In 2020, VoteCast showed Biden winning 55% of women, while 43% supported Trump.

And this is nothing new: According to the Center for American Women in Politics at Rutgers University, a majority of women have chosen the Democratic candidate in every presidential election since 1996.

Trump also turned to men

Trump benefited from narrow gains in both men and women; Harris performed moderately poorly compared to Biden in 2020. Fifty-four percent of men supported Trump in 2024, compared to 51% in 2020.

Shifts by gender were concentrated among young voters as well as Black and Latinx voters. White voters across gender and older voters across gender voted similarly in 2024 as they did in 2020.

Women under 30 voted for Harris over Trump, but the majority supporting her was slightly smaller than Biden’s 65% in 2020, at 58%.

There were some indications that the Trump campaign’s overtures to young men were working: More than half of men under 30 supported Trump over Harris, but in 2020 that divide was reversed.

Trump also nearly doubled his share of young black men, joining a key Democratic voting group. Nearly 3 in 10 Black men under 45 lean toward Trump; That’s roughly double the figure Trump received in 2020. Latino men, however, were less open to the Democratic candidate than they were in 2020. Nearly half of Latino men voted for Trump and Harris, while the proportion supporting Biden dropped to 6 in 10.

Economic concerns vary by gender

This was the first presidential election since the Supreme Court overturned Roe. v. Wade v. and this was the second chance in history for Americans to elect their first female president.

These issues, and concerns about the Trump wing’s sexist rhetoric, were important to many women. But concerns about immigration and inflation have put further pressure on many voters and in a way that transcends gender boundaries.

Kelly Dittmar, research director at the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University, said Trump successfully exploited the fear that gender norms and power dynamics were breaking down, even though that wasn’t the main reason for his victory.

Dittmar said the results show “a majority of voters are willing to ignore misogyny and racism, and some are even motivated by it.”

“We don’t always acknowledge how much our citizens are actually invested in the sexism or racism associated with political power,” Dittmar said.

While only 1 in 10 women said electing a female president was the most important factor in their vote, 4 in 10 women said it was not motivating at all. Black women were most affected by the possibility of the first female president; Nearly a third said it was a key factor in their voting choice.

Nearly 9 in 10 Black women and 6 in 10 Latina women supported Harris. Just under half of white women supported the vice president.

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Associated Press Writer Cora Lewis in New York contributed to this story.

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AP VoteCast is a survey of American voters conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for Fox News, PBS NewsHour, The Wall Street Journal and The Associated Press. The survey of more than 120,000 voters was conducted over eight days and culminated in the closing of the polls. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The survey polls a random sample of registered voters drawn from state voter files; Self-identified registered voters using NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population; and self-identified registered voters selected from improbable online panels. The margin of sampling error for voters is estimated at plus or minus 0.4 percentage points. You can find more details about AP VoteCast’s methodology at: https://ap.org/votecast.