When it comes to post-pandemic recovery, the North Bay lags the rest of the country and the Bay Area in job growth.

This was one of the views presented at the Bay Area Economic Institute’s State of the North Bay virtual presentation on October 23.. The institute is a business advocacy organization representing the nine-county Bay Area. Counties include Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano and Sonoma. The report highlights separate data analyzes for the Bay Area and the North Bay. Sponsored by the North Bay Leadership Council.

Between February 2020 and September 2024, employment growth in the North Bay was 1% compared to 4.5% in the nation, according to keynote speaker Jeff Bellisario, the Institute’s Executive Director. California’s economic barometer was 2.49%, while the rest of the Bay Area was at 1.2%.

“We have seen an overall slowdown in the Bay Area and a slower recovery in the North Bay (since the COVID-19 outbreak) than in the San Francisco metro and San Jose markets,” Bellisario said. “We’re still trying to catch up with the rest of the country over the last four years.”

Meanwhile, unemployment rates The six-county North Bay region saw a decline in September, while California’s rate of 5.3% remained the same, according to Oct. 18 data from the state Employment Development Department.

What this tells Sonoma State University Economics Professor Robert Eyler is that two factors are colliding due to the actions of employers.

“More employers may be reducing the number of workers they demand,” Eyler told the Business Journal on Nov. 4. “Of course this is a way to deal with rising expenses.”

And year-to-year studies can produce a completely different result than an evaluation over a long period of time, like the one in the institute’s report published Oct. 23.

For example, September unemployment rates reported in the Business Journal offer a snapshot, Eyler said.

“Unemployment in Sonoma County has remained steady, but has increased by half a percent since May. It is rising,” he said, and seasonal adjustments should also be taken into account when doing a long-term analysis.

The economic jump in employment contrasts with the glory days when Bellisario said the Bay Area was “at the top” in terms of job creation.

Bellasario described trends in recognizing the “unique character” of North Bay counties and how he can use that information to map the era of rebuilding and redevelopment.

Santa Rosa City Manager Maraskeshia Smith, joined by the city’s Chief Economic Development Officer Scott Adair, was on hand at the event to discuss the state of local city economies along with San Rafael City Manager Christine Alilovich and Napa Economic Development Director Neal Harrison.

Education and health care lead in terms of industries and employment in three North Bay counties: Sonoma, with 36,045 jobs in these sectors, and Marin, with 21,300 jobs in these employment segments. There were 10,224 jobs in education and health services in Napa County. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the county had 14,446 manufacturing jobs and 12,491 entertainment/hospitality jobs in 2024.

The construction industry overall saw little change during the same four-year period during which employment rebounded. Business sectors including information; wholesale, transportation and utilities; financial; retail trade and government showed overall job losses. Collectively, the trade/transportation (down 6.9%, 2019-2024), finance, entertainment/hospitality, manufacturing and construction sectors lost 9,678 jobs in the North Bay, the report said.

According to experts, the aging population represents a trend that should be followed in terms of workforce retention. Seniors are approaching retirement and leaving the workforce.

North Bay’s median age increased by 3.6 years from 2010 to 2023. The average age in Sonoma County is 43.5; Napa’s is 43.4 years old, Marin’s is 48 years old.

Bellasario said he has also noticed a trend of millennials leaving the area. The region’s population was 830,000 in 2010, referring to the North Bay’s Sonoma, Napa and Marin counties. It peaked at about 910,000 six years later, but fell to 869,054 last year. The U.S. Census Bureau reports the number as 869,435.

Moreover, the data also coincides with the decline in net birth rates. The North Bay saw more than 6,000 people leave the area last year and the net birth rate was “close to zero.”

“These population trends are not good. There are more people leaving than coming. We are in a very negative migration. If you’re not increasing your population, you’re not increasing your workforce,” Bellasario said. While the pandemic played a role in changing the population, natural disasters such as forest fires, housing affordability and the general cost of living were also factors that caused people to leave the country.