A key Big 12 matchup begins this weekend, with newly ranked No. 20 Colorado hitting the road against Texas Tech. Let’s take a look at the latest predictions for the game from an expert football model who predicts scores and picks winners.

Colorado sits second in the Big 12 standings with a 4-1 mark in conference play and is in first place in the College Football Playoff standings.

Texas Tech came out on top after defeating undefeated Iowa State last weekend, improving to 4-2 in Big 12 games despite ranking 121st nationally in scoring defense.

What do the analytical models suggest for the Buffaloes and Red Raiders to meet in this Big 12 matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to see how Colorado and Texas Tech perform in this Week 11 college football game.

So far the models are siding with the Buffaloes against the Red Raiders this time.

SP+ predicts this Colorado to beat Texas Tech by a predicted score of 32 to 29 and to win the game Expected margin of 3.2 points.

Model gives Buffaloes a tight berth 58 percent chance indicator of victory in the game.

SP+ is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is this season? The SP+ model is 262-244-7 against the spread so far with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-23-2 (50%) last weekend.

Colorado one 4.5 point favorite against Texas Tech, according to updated lines posted on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at: 62.5 points in the game (over -110, under -110).

And that set the moneyline rates for Colorado -184 and for Texas Tech +152 To win for sure.

If you are using this prediction to bet on the game, you must:

A slight majority of bettors are taking the other side of the game and expect the Buffaloes to edge the Red Raiders based on the widespread consensus picks for the game.

Colorado gets 54 percent Bets to win the game and close the tight spot gap.

the other 46 percent Betting project Texas Tech will either win outright in case of defeat, or keep the margin below 5 points in case of defeat.

Colorado caught the average 10 points better More than their opponents so far this season when counting all points from wins and losses.

Texas Tech plays closer games, but their averages are as follows: 2.1 points better More than the competition in their 2024 game.

These differences have changed in the last three games: Colorado 11.7 points better more than its rivals, while Texas Tech 8 points worse average in this range.

Texas Tech’s average 8 points better While playing at home this season, Colorado 13.8 points better On the road, it’s better than its rivals.

Most other analytical models also favor the Buffaloes over the Red Raiders in this game.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer forecasting model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Colorado is the away favorite, comes out ahead in the majority 63.3 percent One of the computer’s latest simulations of the game.

This leaves Texas Tech as the likely winner in the remaining race 36.7 percent from the sims.

How does this translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Colorado is expected to be 5.1 points better According to the model’s latest prediction, both teams’ current composition has more than Texas Tech on the same field.

Colorado ranks third among the big 12 teams. 17 percent chance To qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to FPI’s metrics.

According to this week’s calculations of the index, BYU leads the conference in this category (50.4%), while Iowa State (21.8%) is in second place.

FPI, projects that Buffaloes will win 8.8 games this season.

Model gives Texas Tech an earnings projection 7.5 games.

When: Saturday, November 9
Time: 15:00 CT | 14:00 MT
TV: Fox network

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Match odds are updated periodically and may change.

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