BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – The first College Football Playoff rankings of the 2024 season put Indiana in an interesting position as they try to chart a course for the College Football Playoff.

Indiana is seeded 8th in the 12-team field, but the Hoosiers are actually seeded 9th due to the way the field is seeded. BYU, ranked No. 9, is the top Big 12 team, so the Cougars would jump ahead of the Hoosiers and four other schools to bid farewell as one of the conference champions.

There are countless plot lines you can think of when trying to understand the fate of Indiana. What if the other three conference championship games also had negative events that would likely determine the bye? The dreaded “bid stealer” scenario? What happens if contestant X loses these two matches but contestant Y wins?

You can go crazy trying to map out the various paths that will get the Hoosiers into or out of the College Football Playoff based on what’s happening elsewhere.

So let’s move on to topics that directly concern Hoosiers. That alone is a lot to think about.

If Indiana Wins All Remaining Games

• The scenario here is simple: Indiana will make the College Football Playoff bye and become a top-four seed as Big Ten champions.

This scenario assumes the regular season ends 3-0 and Oregon loses in the Big Ten championship game. Could be Indiana while beating Oregon the It earned a top seed in the College Football Playoff as an undefeated team that beat the No. 1 team in the Big Ten championship game.

What If Indiana Goes 3-0 in the Regular Season But Loses the Big Ten Championship Game

• It would be difficult to keep a 12-1 Indiana team off the field. In this scenario, the Hoosiers would get a high-quality win on the road at Ohio State on Nov. 23, which would blunt any concerns about Indiana’s strength of schedule.

Most likely, depending on whether “bid stealers” are present in some of the other conference championship games, Indiana would likely still be in the field as the host in the first round game and would be seeded fifth through eighth, as a loss to Oregon would not be considered a detriment. But the Hoosiers would give up some control over their destiny.

If Indiana Loses at Ohio State and Misses a Big Ten Championship

• It’s a possibility, but it’s one that won’t be fatal to the Hoosiers’ CFP hopes unless they’re beaten so decisively by the Buckeyes that their standings take a big hit.

If Indiana had lost to the Buckeyes and barred surprises elsewhere in the league, they would have been in a three-way tie with Ohio State and Penn State for second place.

In this case, Ohio State will face Oregon in the Big Ten championship game because the Buckeyes will have beaten both the Hoosiers and the Nittany Lions.

This isn’t such a bad scenario for the Hoosiers; on one condition. In that case, Indiana would take a loss and not be in danger of losing again in the Big Ten championship game. The Hoosiers would be vulnerable to qualifying moves elsewhere, but they couldn’t hurt themselves any further. The Hoosiers could move up if the contenders ahead of them lose.

However, Indiana needs to keep its rankings high enough after the loss to Ohio State to make the above scenario come true. If the Hoosiers are 11-12. if they rank next, they will be in danger of being overlooked.

If Indiana Loses at Ohio State But Still Makes the Big Ten Championship Game

• If Indiana loses at Ohio State, the Hoosiers will need a lot of help to get to the Big Ten championship game.

A path back to the Big Ten championship game may be charted, but it’s a circuitous route full of unlikely circumstances.

Ohio State will have to forfeit one of the following games: Purdue at home, Northwestern at home, or Michigan at home. The Big Game is always full of upsetting possibilities, but this is a favorable path for the Buckeyes.

In this scenario, Penn State would be in a tiebreaker with the Hoosiers. The Hoosiers and Nittany Lions do not play head-to-head and share a loss against a common opponent (Ohio State), but Penn State’s stronger Big Ten schedule (the next tiebreaker) will give the Nittany Lions the edge. The Hoosiers have a head-to-head tiebreaker.

So Indiana will need Penn State to lose another game as well. Penn State hosts Washington, plays at Purdue in Minnesota and finishes with a home game against Maryland. The Golden Gophers matchup is where Penn State will be most vulnerable — Minnesota has won four in a row — but Penn State is still favored.

Oregon could also lose both games to open a path for the Hoosiers, but that’s unlikely. The Ducks will host Maryland, play at Wisconsin and finish at home against Washington.

Are you still with us?

If all of this had somehow happened and the Hoosiers were playing in Indianapolis on Dec. 7, it would have given Indiana a chance to clinch the Big Ten’s automatic berth. But if the Hoosiers lose the championship game, it would also risk a second loss and perhaps elimination from the playoffs.

A two-loss Indiana team would fall short of the CFP playoff playoffs, even with those losses to Ohio State and possibly Oregon. In this scenario, both losses would need to be close for the Hoosiers to give the committee something to go on and keep Indiana high enough to become a two-loss team.

If the committee goes the other way and penalizes the Hoosiers, the rest of Indiana’s resume won’t be strong enough to keep the Hoosiers in the top 12 in the standings unless there is chaos elsewhere among the CFP contenders. Indiana will need the right kind of chaos to pull this off.

If Indiana Loses to Michigan But Beats Ohio State

• Michigan comes to Bloomington on Saturday for kickoff at 3:30 p.m. Indiana sits three games ahead of the Wolverines in the Big Ten standings. A loss to the Wolverines could send Indiana to the bottom of the playoff bracket or out of the CFP Top 12 for a week, but a road win at Ohio State would have the Hoosiers back on their feet in a week. can handle it. Timing is everything.

This would also set in motion all of the above scenarios in making the Big Ten championship game, but somewhat oddly enough, Indiana would be in a much better position to qualify for Indy. From where? In this scenario, Indiana would have the tiebreaker advantage over the Buckeyes (head-to-head win) and Nittany Lions (head-to-head win against a common rival).

So when it comes to getting to the Big Ten championship game, it might be better for the Hoosiers to lose to a worse Michigan team than to lose to a much better Ohio State team. It’s a strange new world.

If that were to happen, it could be a poisoned chalice if the Hoosiers lose in the championship game. A loss at Michigan could leave Indiana vulnerable compared to losses to other CFP contenders. At best, this could eliminate Indiana’s chances of hosting a playoff game. At worst, it could eliminate the Hoosiers from CFP contention entirely.

If Indiana Loses to Ohio State and Michigan or Purdue

• Indiana’s CFP hopes are almost certain to be over. Alabama currently has two losses at home, but both of the Crimson Tide’s losses were to other playoff teams. That wasn’t going to be the case for the Hoosiers.

Although the voices and screams will be deafening, more weight will be given to an Alabama team with three losses and three losses against playoff qualifiers than Indiana’s two-loss resume hosting a non-playoff opponent. This is where Indiana’s Power Four’s 103rd-worst ranked schedule will come back to haunt them.

Of course, a defeat at the hands of Purdue, who compete in the regular-season finale at Memorial Stadium, would be a fatal blow to Indiana’s CFP hopes. Indiana would then bowl in his place.

In conclusion? A win against Ohio State would almost certainly put Indiana on the path to the CFP playoffs, as it would be one of the best wins any playoff contender could achieve.