Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Alex Bregman The biggest names of the MLB offseasonbut perhaps most interesting is 23-year-old Japanese flamethrower Roki Sasaki, who may or may not be available to teams in the United States this winter.

The perennial Chiba Lotte Marines star has emerged as Nippon Professional Baseball’s next big import, following in the footsteps of Shohei Ohtani, Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka and Ichiro Suzuki. However, the arrival date is unknown.

From where? Let’s get into this.

Who is Roki Sasaki?

Sasaki is perhaps the most exciting pitch to come out of Japan. A native of Rikuzentakata in Iwate prefecture, he was on the radars of MLB teams while in high school before opting to enter the NPB draft, where the Mariners earned his draft rights in 2019.

Sasaki has dominated the league since then, posting a career 2.02 ERA with 524 strikeouts in 414 2/3 innings over four seasons. He doesn’t have the highest home runs ever by an NPB pitcher (that title probably belongs to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, now of the Los Angeles Dodgers), but Sasaki could be even more intriguing because of an arsenal that Japanese hitters are certainly tired of facing.

When did people start learning about Sasaki?

Sasaki was great for a while in Japan, but he started gaining international attention in April 2022. When he threw a perfect 19-inning game. It’s no exaggeration to call this his most impressive shooting performance ever.

Sasaki followed that up by pitching eight perfect innings and 14 strikeouts in his next start before being sidelined due to workload concerns. That’s when many MLB fans started to figure out when he might make his way to America.

More attention came during the 2023 World Baseball Classic, where Sasaki was a member of Team Japan’s vaunted pitching staff that carried the country to victory. Sasaki started the semifinal game against Mexico, giving up five hits and three runs and recording three strikeouts against a lineup composed mostly of MLB hitters.

What can we expect from Sasaki in MLB?

Sasaki is an exciting candidate, but he’s not a perfect candidate.

We can compare Sasaki and Yamamoto. Although Sasaki had a larger frame than Yamamoto, could throw harder than Yamamoto, and had a splitter that dwarfed Yamamoto, Yamamoto emerged as the more complete shooter thanks to his command and more extensive arsenal. Sasaki may have the highest ceiling of any pitching prospect, but he still needs to show he can put it all together against MLB’s hitters.

He probably will, but he might need a year or two in MLB to really dominate. Any MLB team would be happy to give him that rink, but it might also be best for him to stay in Japan a little longer.

This year Sasaki’s drop in pace and injury problems were more worrying; He saw his fastball lose one hit and miss several starts due to arm discomfort. These are major red flags considering that starting pitchers who throw 100 innings rarely last more than a few years in MLB before needing major surgery.

What kind of things are we talking about?

Let’s start by noting that Sasaki tied Ohtani as the hardest-throwing pitcher in Japan history, with his fastest pitch coming at 102.5 mph. Sasaki came to WBC and He fired 26 of 29 shots faster than 100 mph. No starting pitcher in MLB can throw this hard on such a consistent basis.

We could easily rate this fastball as an 80 on a 20-80 scouting scale. The other 80 in Sasaki’s arsenal is the splitter, which is often his batting pitch and may be the best pitch of its kind in the world.

After that, Sasaki found most of his success as a two-pitch pitcher. That’s tough to do as a starter, but he’s been able to strike out hitters time and time again with his fastball-splitting tandem. However, he has worked on his slider this season with encouraging results, and any MLB team will want him to continue that process.

So he’s going to get a huge amount of money?

No, a few million dollars at most. Consider the “26th overall pick of the 2024 MLB Draft” money.

Wait, what?

Sasaki’s most important feature is that he is 23 years old. Yamamoto was 25 when he came to MLB and received $325 million from the Dodgers. These two years are very important.

Because Sasaki is under 25, he is subject to the same international free agency rules that govern young players in the Dominican Republic, Venezuela and elsewhere outside the United States. Money came out of international bonus pools, which reached just over $7 million for the more favored teams this season.

After the signing, Sasaki’s situation will be basically the same as other potential candidates. He can go to the minors (but almost certainly not) and his team will have six years of control, with arbitration coming after three years. If Sasaki comes to MLB this summer, he will be eligible to become a free agent after his age-28 season in 2030.

Why would he do this?

This is the 300 million dollar question.

By coming to the US now instead of coming to the US two years later, Sasaki will be giving up potentially hundreds of millions of dollars. The Marine Corps would make tens of millions of dollars within two years of his inauguration; If he came now, it would be a very small fee compared to that.

The reason Sasaki came now was because Ohtani was in the same position before the 2018 season and then made $700 million. Perhaps Sasaki thought he could make his baseball career better if he faced the best hitters in the world as soon as possible.

Do we know if Sasaki will be sent away?

We don’t do this for all the above reasons.

It seemed pretty clear that the Marines didn’t want to commit him yet, and you’d think that would be the end of that, but NPB contracts aren’t like MLB contracts. Much is done secretly and on an annual basis, with the possibility that Sasaki’s contract contains a clause that could result in his being deployed.

We probably won’t know for sure what’s next for Sasaki until he signs his next contract with the Marine Corps or is deployed.

What happens if Roki Sasaki is appointed?

If Sasaki is officially appointed, it would trigger a 45-day window in which he can negotiate with every MLB club, from the Dodgers to the White Sox. If he signs a contract with a team, that’s it.

If he doesn’t, he returns to the Marines and cannot be deployed until the end of the following season.

How will teams affect Roki Sasaki?

We experienced this with Ohtani on the baseball version of “The Bachelor.” All teams expressed interest, awarding roses to seven finalists and ultimately choosing the Los Angeles Angels.

That’s what happened to Sasaki. Instead of a bidding war, teams would tell him what they could do for him in terms of comfort and performance. Track record, facilities, staff and personal comfort will often become large parts of an equation dominated by money.

Who are Roki Sasaki’s favorites?

This is arguably the team that won the World Series, in which two of Sasaki’s Samurai Japan teammates played central roles after making the playoffs every year for over a decade, with its biggest following in Japan, in the city with the largest Japanese population. continental United States.

We’re talking about the LA Dodgers, of course.

So the Dodgers want to reshuffle their Samurai Japan rotation?

It’s been rumored for a while that Sasaki would be the favorite for the Dodgers if he arrived, and winning a ring with Ohtani and Yamamoto, who are under contract for the next nine years, certainly didn’t hurt their chances.

And the Dodgers, being a very smart team, act like they know Sasaki is coming by protecting his $2.5 million in international bonus money, the most of any MLB team all year. You wouldn’t do this unless you think you have a real chance, but if Sasaki’s announcement goes after January 15, when international bonus pools reset, that advantage will be gone.

It sounds outrageous – the biggest current “ownerships” in baseball are finding the player for whom money should theoretically not be a factor. Imagine a rotation of Ohtani, Yamamoto, Sasaki, Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw. Heck, the Dodgers are also rumored to be in the mix to sign Max Fried and make a six-man rotation. Considering how this season has been injury-wise from a rotation standpoint, the Dodgers will want as many batting arms as possible.

The Dodgers are basically Japan’s team anyway due to Ohtani’s inexplicable popularity there, but adding Sasaki would allow them to pursue three appointments for the country per rotation. It’s a nightmare scenario for anyone invested in the Dodgers to fail to reach dynasty territory.

Which teams could challenge the Dodgers?

That’s up to Sasaki.

The San Diego Padres are intriguing because they are also good and employ another Japanese great in Dervish. a photo showing Sasaki decked out in Padres gear during a ping-pong night with the boys. If Sasaki wants to play with other compatriots, the Chicago Cubs also have several notable Japanese players like Seiya Suzuki and Shota Imanaga.

You’d guess that all the remaining contenders, including the New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants and New York Mets, are also interested, so it largely comes down to what Sasaki is looking for.

The Dodgers are probably the favorites, but it’s not at a point where you can clearly field them. As far as we know, Sasaki doesn’t want to spend the first six years of his MLB career in the shadow of Ohtani and Yamamoto.

Can we turn this off?

Certainly. Sasaki is a generational flame-throwing pitcher who would likely earn around $300 million right now if he were an MLB free agent. Instead, if he’s drafted by the NPB team, he’ll be the biggest bargain in baseball: a potential six-year ace for fifth starting money.

We don’t know when it will arrive and if it will arrive this winter, but when it does, this becomes one of the biggest stories of the offseason. And the Dodgers will probably be there in 2024 or 2026.