SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico — Hurricane Category 2 Rafael, with sustained winds of 100 mph, is rapidly intensifying in the Caribbean as it moves toward Cuba on Wednesday.

The powerful hurricane is expected to face significant resistance in the Gulf of Mexico after tearing through the Caribbean, and could make landfall as a much weaker storm anywhere from the U.S. Gulf Coast to northeastern Mexico this weekend.

As of Wednesday morning, Rafael was 260 miles from Cuba.

It’s still unclear what threat, if any, Rafael poses to the Gulf Coast, but with better focus and a more confident forecast will be possible when the storm arrives in the Gulf on Thursday.

Rafael’s threat to Cuba is clear.

It will be a strong Category 2 hurricane when it reaches western Cuba Wednesday afternoon, according to the National Hurricane Center. If it strengthens slightly more than currently predicted, it could become a major hurricane of Category 3 or stronger as it approaches landfall.

This year, nine storms in the Atlantic basin, including Rafael, rapidly intensified due to the influence of extremely hot water. Rapid condensation is occurring more frequently as the atmosphere and oceans warm due to fossil fuel pollution.

Rafael was the strongest hurricane to move through the northwestern Caribbean in November since 2009, according to NOAA data. This is expected to be the fifth hurricane to wreak havoc on the Gulf of Mexico in November since 1966, according to hurricane expert Michael Lowry.

Heavy rain from the hurricane was spreading across Cuba Wednesday morning and was expected to flood the country by Thursday. Double-digit rainfall totals are possible. Tropical storm-force winds were blowing just off the country’s southern coast early Wednesday. These winds and stronger hurricane-force winds will spread across Cuba over the next few hours.

Rafael’s strong winds were also churning up treacherous seas and could cause storm surges of up to 13 feet along Cuba’s southern coast before reaching land.

Rafael’s future is uncertain
Rafael’s potential path in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and throughout the weekend is slowly becoming clearer, but it is far from certain.

Rafael could still be the sixth storm to hit the United States this season, but areas at risk are shrinking.

At the beginning of the week, forecast models were showing very different possible paths for Rafael, but these models are starting to converge on a solution. Instead of a steady northwestward path across the Gulf and landfall along the northern Gulf Coast, the two main forecast models more consistently show a significant shift westward.

The current forecast from the hurricane center indicates that Rafael could potentially make landfall anywhere west of Louisiana to northeastern Mexico, with initial forecasts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle being possible.

“If future model runs continue to show this trend… further adjustment to the left of the NHC line may be required,” the center said in a statement on Wednesday.

The upper-level winds disrupting the storm, regardless of location, are likely to severely worsen Rafael as the storm approaches the U.S. coastline. Current forecasts call for Rafael to return to tropical storm status by the end of the week.

Rafael’s effects in the United States may be limited, but the same strong tropical moisture that fueled the storm on Wednesday will also fuel showers in the Southeast.

According to the Weather Prediction Center, there is a wide swath of flood risk at 2/4 on Wednesday in parts of South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama. Smaller parts of Georgia and South Carolina are at 3/4 risk from flooding.

Flash rains can cause dangerous flooding, but flooding may slow in some areas given how dry much of the land is after a record-breaking October.