Texas Republicans reaffirmed their overwhelming control of the state House in Tuesday’s elections, but new Republican faces in the Texas House could have a big impact on the balance of power in the legislature, especially when it comes to the state’s ongoing fight over school vouchers.

This year’s Texas House races have become an unprecedented battleground among Republicans after lawmakers closed out the 2023 legislative session and several special sessions without passing a voucher-like program for public schools in Texas. The effort would create a program that allows Texas families to pay tuition for private and parochial schools with public funds. One of Governor Greg Abbott’s top legislative priorities last year. But he was derailed by Abbott’s 21 fellow Republicans in the Texas House.

Republicans largely from rural areas Along with several private schools, he sided with Democrats in the House and defeated their efforts. In reply to Abbott went after opposition Republicans By supporting a number of pro-voucher challengers in the March primaries.

Abbott’s strategy worked: Of the 15 governor-endorsed challengers, 11 successfully unseated incumbent Republicans who voted against vouchers. a few more Beat GOP incumbents in May runoff elections.

The new class of Republican lawmakers heading to Austin in January could also create problems for current House Speaker Dade Phelan (R-Beaumont). Many Republicans have already said they plan to challenge Phelan for the speaker’s gavel when the legislature reconvenes in January 2025.

Texas House and state’s battle over vouchers

Tuesday’s results likely solidified Governor Abbott’s confidence on this issue. pro-coupon will have majority The 2025 legislative term begins.

The 2024 election was the first time Abbott attacked members of his own party, according to University of Houston political scientist Brandon Rottinghaus.

“The coupon issue is this change,” Rottinghaus said. “Abbott needs a signature issue. Every governor does this. He wants his coupon printing to be his number one signature printing.”

With the presence of voucher-friendly Republicans, Texas could move toward joining the 33 other states that already have some form of voucher program. Most state programs target low-income or special needs students, but states such as Arizona and Florida have recently adopted universal programs that are open to all students.Gov. Specifically, Abbott wants Texas to create education savings accounts, or ESAs, that would allow parents to access state dollars that can be used to cover educational expenses such as tuition and homeschooling.

Texas lawmakers’ unsuccessful ESA proposal last year would have provided $10,500 per participating student. But it’s still unclear exactly what kind of voucher-like program state lawmakers will propose in 2025 or how expensive and extensive such a program might be.

And despite the ouster of several Republicans opposed to the idea, it remains to be seen how much negotiation pro-voucher lawmakers will have to do if they have any hope of convincing skeptical Texas lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. “The jury is still out on what this is going to look like,” said Jeff Barry, the anti-voucher Republican who won the House District 29 race south of Houston on Tuesday. “There is a huge push for the universal right now. This is what I heard.”

Barry defeated Abbott-backed pro-voucher candidate Alex Kamkar in the March primary before defeating Democrat Adrienne Bell in the general election. (On the way to the campaign, Both Barry and Bell said vouchers would divert resources away from public schools). He will replace Rep. Ed Thompson, HD 29, who was among the Texas House members who voted against vouchers and decided not to run for re-election in 2023.

Looking ahead to 2025, Barry said, “I think this will pass because the governor is going around making sure it passes.” “What I need to focus on at this point is trying to get the best opportunity and the best deal for my area.”

What ultimately happens next year may be largely driven by Abbott, who called four special legislative sessions last year to pass ESAs. Rottinghaus said that with Tuesday’s results, Abbott “generally achieved his goal.”

“Whether he can now negotiate within parliament to make this happen will be another test, perhaps the most important test of his leadership to date,” he added.

What do Tuesday’s results mean for Speaker Phelan’s political future?

The impact of Texas legislative elections is not limited to school vouchers, but may have determined school vouchers as well. The fate of Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan.

Phelan was among those who drew the ire of Abbott, who accused the speaker of failing to pass ESAs in the Texas House last year. The governor, along with Attorney General Ken Paxton and Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, have endorsed a rival to Phelan in the House 21st Republican primary. Phelan had to go to the second round and I narrowly won.

Since then Phelan clearly faced challenges to his speakership.

Some of his fellow Republicans’ hostility toward Phelan (also his decision moving forward on Paxton’s impeachment) comes from the speaker’s attachment to something old tradition Allowing minority party members to chair major legislative committees.

Rep. Tom Oliverson (R-Cypress) Among Phelan’s challengers. “The pressure to move away from the way we do things right now has been building for some time,” Oliverson said at the Texas Tribune Festival in September. “Almost everywhere you go, whether it’s a red state, a blue state, a big state, a small state… the majority party has control of all the committees.”

To regain the gavel, he will need the support of a new caucus of Republican Texas House members and nearly all of the chamber’s Democrats.