Big Ten football kicks off this weekend with defending champion Michigan hitting the road against surprise contender No. 8 Indiana. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games.

Indiana is 9-0 for the first time thanks to an offensive renaissance under first-year coach Curt Cignetti and ranks third nationally in scoring with 47 points per game this season.

Michigan isn’t quite the same offensive juggernaut; They rank 116th nationally in scoring and 128th in passing yards, falling to 3-3 in Big Ten play and losing three of their last four games.

As we look forward to this week’s matchup, let’s take a look at the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer forecasting model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on projected scoring margin per game.

As expected according to the models, the Hoosiers have a significant lead over the Wolverines.

Indiana is a heavy favorite at home as it leads in the majority 86.9 percent from the computer’s simulations for the match.

That leaves Michigan as the likely winner in the remaining race 13.1 percent from the sims.

Overall, the Hoosiers came in first in 17,380 of the index’s calculations for the game, while the Wolverines bested IU in 2,620 other predictions.

However, these numbers represent only a win-loss calculation for both teams. How do these translate into the projected margin of victory in the game?

Indiana is expected to be 16.8 points better According to the model’s latest prediction, both teams’ current composition is on the same field from Michigan.

If so, this will be enough to cover the spread.

This is because Indiana is a 13.5 point favorite against Michigan, according to updated lines posted on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel determined the total as follows: 48.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And here are the deposit rates for Indiana: -710 and for michigan +490 To win for sure.

According to the latest consensus picks for the game, many bettors expect the Hoosiers to dominate the Wolverines this week.

Indiana gets 66 percent Bets to win the game and cover the generous point spread in the process.

the other 34 percent Percentage of bets expect Michigan to either win outright in defeat or keep the margin under 2 goals in defeat.

Indiana ranks third in the Big Ten 86.5 percent chance To qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to FPI’s metrics.

This model gives the Hoosiers win total prediction 11.3 games this season.

Michigan expected to win 6 games According to the index, in 2024.

That’s enough for one thing 81.3 percent chance To qualify for a bowl game this postseason.

The Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer forecasting models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

The rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analysis including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting and the team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked by projected points margin per game against an average team on a neutral field, rather than by ability as in other rankings.

First place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (62)
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Miami
5. Texas
6. Penn State
7. Tennessee
8. indiana
9. BYU
10. Notre-Dame
11. Alabama
12. Boise State
13. SMU
14. LSU
15. Texas A&M
16. ole miss
17. Iowa State
18. Army
19. Clemson
20. Washington State
21. colorado
22. Kansas State
23. pittsburgh
24. vanderbilt
25. louisville

When: Saturday, November 9
Time: 15:30 Eastern
TV: CBS network

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Match odds are updated periodically and may change.

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