Since becoming prime minister on July 5 Sir Keir Starmer He met with only one of the two candidates hoping to be elected president, and not his natural Democratic ally. Kamala Harrisbut the Republican opponent Donald Trump.

not holding a meeting between Mrs Harris and Sir Keir It was not a disdain from either side but reflected a two-track approach. workforce They have been preparing for tomorrow’s result for months and these preparations date back to when they were still in opposition.

In what always seems like a tough presidential race, Labor prime minister He had long known that he was facing two very different scenarios, based on an outcome that hinged on a handful of counties in several swing states.

One was to have an ally in the White House who shared a similar legal background, was ideologically aligned, and agreed on major international issues. But the other was for a US president with a volatile personality who happily shattered international consensus and saw his closest ally in Britain as the far-right Nigel Farage.

It is much easier to prepare for the first scenario, but preparing for the second requires careful diplomacy and meticulous planning.

Works at Kamala Harris

If Ms Harris wins the US presidency, Sir Keir will be given a huge prize. It bears all the hallmarks of a relationship between a British prime minister and a US president not seen since the days of ideological bedfellows Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, when the so-called special relationship was actually private.

Ms Harris, like Sir Keir, was a prosecutor before entering politics and the pair take almost identical approaches to the need to create international legal structures and take on populist nationalism. There is no front-line issue where they disagree and are ideologically too far right-wing for their own party activists, but easily fall within the established social democratic big-government left.

It’s no wonder Labor boasts of sending 100 volunteers to help the Democrats’ ground campaign in key states. It’s a match made in heaven, and an election they desperately want to see Ms. Harris win. Aid was not just support for a sister party, it was also a symbol of a close working relationship.

Insurance against Trump

Sir Keir, Foreign Secretary David Lammy and all their advisers have long known that Mr Trump always had a strong chance of a second term.

Independent It revealed that even in opposition, Mr Lammy had spent time in the US courting the right of US politics and had even moved closer to the Trump camp. He attempted to give a speech at Heritage, the right-wing think tank behind the infamous Project 2025 manifesto. But even though it failed, other shadow ministers went to the meeting there.

Mr Lammy said openly disparaging things about Mr Trump after the 2016 election, when he was still a Labor MP. US electionSo it had a way to go to make up for the ground it had lost. But he was notable for defending Mr. Trump for his incendiary comments about NATO, saying the former president was right to say NATO members should pay their own way. He also drew close comparisons to himself and Mr. Trump’s right-wing vice presidential candidate, J.D. Vance.

The reason Sir Keir was keen to meet Mr Trump on his recent visit to New York was because he knew bridges needed to be built for the most important alliance in the West to thrive. The meeting appeared to be quite positive.

But a lawsuit filed by the Trump campaign over Labor’s aid to Ms Harris could derail some of the work being done.

Ukrainian

The biggest problem has been trying to provide support for Ukraine that won’t “beat Trump.” It has been clear for some time that Mr. Trump and the majority of Republicans would not provide the same support and assistance to Ukraine. It seems likely that Mr Trump will try to make a deal with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky.

Much of the work carried out in the last few months has been related to providing rapid financing to Ukraine and securing Ukraine’s application to NATO. Although Starmer has achieved 90 per cent of what he hoped for, there will still be doubts about whether this can be resolved by Mr Trump.

It may be vital not to allow the use of storm shadow missiles, especially on targets in Russia.

Other problems

Sir Keir will worry about what Mr Trump might do on the Middle East. While the United States under President Biden supports Israel, Mr. Trump’s rhetoric suggests he could go much further in helping Israel deal with Hamas; This could have potentially dire consequences in Gaza.

In addition, Mr. Trump appears to have been cool to his previous support for Taiwan, which could give China the opportunity to be more aggressive. While Taiwan is highly symbolic of the freedom of the West, it is even more important when it comes to the production of semiconductors that will power almost any device or car.

Finally, there will be a significant problem regarding trade. Democrats were never going to strike a trade deal with Britain, but Mr Trump might. On the other hand, an isolationist president could easily go the opposite direction and impose much higher tariffs.

Trump’s visit to Farage in Clacton

Sir Keir’s final reckoning will be on the impact a Trump presidency will have on British politics and Europe.

Independent It revealed that you have a belief. Mr Trump to visit Mr Farage’s Clacton constituency As a sign of support if he becomes president. Overall, this will help strengthen right-wing politics in the UK, which is already in a precarious situation after a summer of riots.

In Europe, right-wing figures such as Hungary’s Viktor Orban and France’s Marine Le Pen will also hope to gain support from Trump’s presidency.

Sir Keir knows that if Mr Trump wins, the UK and its government will need to act as a moderating influence for the next four years.