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What the US Senate says about Michigan

Harry November 5, 2024

Election Day is Tuesday, and Michiganders are preparing to elect a new U.S. senator. Help determine who will be the next president. With that in mind, here’s what the Free Press polls and other polls tell us about who is expected to win.

In short, it looks close.

US presidential race: Harris and Trump poll in Michigan

Our latest survey, released Friday and conducted by Lansing’s EPIC-MRA for the Free Press and its media partners, It showed Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris leading Republican former President Donald Trump 48%-45% in Michigan, driven by increased support among Black voters and women.

Given that the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, that could mean the race is a dead heat. But it also marked a tilt toward Harris, leading Democratic candidate Trump in the presidential race in Michigan for the first time since last November in EPIC-MRA polls.

Michigan’s 15 Electoral College votes, which will be awarded to whoever wins the popular vote for president in the state, could be crucial in determining the winner. Michigan is one of a handful of states that will decide the race, along with Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Our poll was slightly better for Harris than others. Websites that average poll results show Harris ahead everywhere in Michigan From 1% with about 2%.

And the racing looks really tight in all swing situations. Michigan and Wisconsin appear to be the best fit for Harris; most others seem better suited to Trump. Pennsylvania and Nevada appear to be the closest places right now. As for what that means, if Harris wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, she’ll have the best chance of becoming president; If Trump wins all the other swing states and takes one of these three states, he will have the best chance of winning.

Meanwhile, Harris has a slight lead in most national averages.

US Senate race: Elissa Slotkin vs. Mike Rogers

In Michigan’s open U.S. Senate race, Democratic candidate U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Holly led Republican former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers of White Lake by 5 percentage points. 47%-42% in the Free Press’s latest poll.

That’s just outside the poll’s 4 percentage point margin of error.

owned by Slotkin generally led in most polls in the race to do well Democratic U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, who announced early last year that she would not seek a fifth six-year term. But the polls are so close that even the slightest polling error or increase in supporters at the polls could cause an upset or a blowout for either candidate.

Other election poll information

Meanwhile, the Free Press has released a wealth of other polling data from the final weeks and months of this election season. Here are a few links to these stories:

Contact Todd Spangler: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter@tsspangler.