quarterback

Starter: Justin Herbert, Chargers

The Chargers have played very well offensively in the first month of the season, recording a -10% pass rate above expectations. During this period, Herbert averaged 22.8 pass attempts and 145 yards per game. The Chargers improved their PROE to +2% in Weeks 6 and 7.

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Seating: Dak Prescott, Cowboys

Prescott took a step back this year, ranking 24th in EPA per throwback per season after finishing second in the metric. He ranks in the QB16 in fantasy points per game. Bettors are now throwing in the towel on the Cowboys for at least a week. They have a team average of 21.25 overall and face a unit that ranks in the top 10 in EPA per passing play allowed.

Seating: Geno Smith, Seahawks

Smith served as a volume merchant under Ryan Grubb, averaging a league-leading pedestrian 7.1 yards per attempt on carries (279). He faces a Buffalo defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year. More important than the match is the loss of DK Metcalf, who did not practice as of Friday morning and is unlikely to play on Sunday. Metcalf ranks 27th in yards per route run. He is the only Seattle receiver ranked in the top 50.

Running Back

Starter: Kareem Hunt, Chiefs

Hunt entered the Kansas City lineup three games ago and has seen 65 percent of the team’s shots. He averages 23 touchdown passes for 95 yards and one touchdown per game. The Chiefs have a higher-than-expected negative pass rate since Hunt’s first start and are 9.5-point favorites over the Raiders this week.

Starter: Chase Brown, Bengals

Brown completed his takeover of the Cincinnati backfield last week, outscoring Zack Moss 15-6. He’s seen 55 percent of the Bengals’ shots over the past four weeks, averaging 15.3 touches per game during that stretch. Brown also scores well on efficiency measures. He ranks third in yards after contact per carry and fifth in explosive rushing pace.

Seating: Chuba Hubbard, Panthers

Bryce Young returned to the lineup this week and Andy Dalton is nursing a sprained thumb. This takes every Panthers player off the menu for fantasy purposes. He averaged 13.8 points per game in the 18 games he started his Carolina career. The Panthers are down 10.5 points this week and face a Denver defense that ranks 10th in EPA per rushing attempt allowed.

Sit: Alvin Kamara, Saints

The Spencer Rattler offense is one that no fantasy value can escape. Rattler ranks last in the NFL in EPA per game (minimum 100 dropouts). The Saints have three offensive goals in two Rattler starts, one of which came from a Jake Haener pass attempt in garbage time. They are down seven points against the Chargers this week. The Bolts have given up the second-fewest fantasy points to their opponents this year.

Wide Receiver

Starter: Troy Franklin, Broncos

Franklin, a fourth-round rookie, has seen his role rapidly increase over the past two weeks. He ran routes on 26 percent of the Broncos’ routes from Week 2 through Week 5 after not playing in Denver’s opener. Franklin has since followed 68 percent of Bo Nix’s comebacks. In Week 7, it achieved a target share of 25 percent and an airport share of 30 percent. Despite being a running funnel, the Panthers gave up the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

Starter: Jalen McMillan, Bucs

The track is clear for McMillan’s debut, which Chris Godwin has completed this year and Mike Evans has been nursing a hamstring injury for several weeks. These two players accounted for 46 percent of the Bucs’ targets and 60 percent of their clearances. McMillan could also move into the slot after spending most of his time out in Tampa Bay. Godwin dominated the Bucs’ targets as the primary slot receiver, and McMillan was primarily a slot receiver in college. In his final two seasons as a Husky, he ran more than 90 percent of his routes from the slot.

Seat: Diontae Johnson, Panthers

In addition to the obvious decline in quarterback efficiency, the Panthers’ unplanned QB change could also result in Johnson taking a smaller share of his available targets. In his four Andy Dalton starts, he has a target share of 28 percent and an airfield share of 47 percent. Those numbers were 23 percent and 24 percent in Young’s two starts. Johnson recorded six catches for 34 yards in those games.

Sitting: Josh Downs, Colts

Every Colts receiver is a “Sit” with Anthony Richardson under center. Downs is averaging 9.6 PPR points in his three active Richardson starts.